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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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SantaClaws       4/1/2010 10:00:55 PM
I'm pretty certain the S Korean government knows what happened. If anything, I think the 20 day salvage date is for them to evaluate their options.
 
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SantaClaws       4/1/2010 10:03:25 PM
It doesn't make any sense given the circumstances. The Chonan split in ahlf and sank within minutes. The amount of flooding that would have to occur would be tremendous and far beyond what hitting a rock or even a sea mine would do. You have to remember that the ship was compartimentalized so that would discount the Titanic like sinking possibility already.

I think DA was only suggesting that it's entirely possible the ship's hull breached from contacting a wreck or natural object, rapidly filled with water and snapped its spine.  Me, I suspect the NorKs meticulously scripted the event based on years of observation and planning.  When the little flotilla changed course for behind the island the NorKs dispatched one of their stealthy semi-submersibles based in the area (reportedly they have 20-some stationed nearby) which sprinted under radar cover of the island to a set firing position and submerged with only a periscope and whip above the waves.  Shore-based surveillance may have contributed.  Ships rounded the island and the NorK boat launched a single passive homer that crept at quiet speed toward the predict point, picked up the engine or prop noise and then struck and shattered the keel.  The NorK boat waited, saw another ship heading its way, popped up, sprinted for friendly waters and fired-off decoys at intervals, which blew around in the winds.  Sokcho felt it had enough information to open fire and shot up the "birds."  The untouched NorK boat sped to the coastline where it masked and worked its way back, at night, to the staging area/pen.  Very Clancy-esque and far more intriguing than hull breach.  And not any less likely at this point in time given the other scenarios speculated upon.  The NorK/Iranian semi-submersibles/speedboats are a really difficult problem to counter in the enemy's backyard.  A Cheonan-type event is exactly what those boats were designed to accomplish.  0.02


v^2



 
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YelliChink       4/1/2010 10:12:08 PM

If my supposition is somewhat correct, the NorKs probably perceived their attack as a justified reprisal.  Now Kim Light has been summoned to China for a haircutting appointment, i.e., a trim down of his ego, apparently.

v^2



Ditto.
 
Although this visit is pre-arranged and to be expected for a few months, commies do seem to have better grasp of the event than both the ROK and the US. However, we can't measure exactly how insane Kim Jong-Mentally-Ill is.
 
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Hamilcar    Does anybody remember Italo Balbo?    4/1/2010 10:39:43 PM
The PRC bandits know their history.

 
Inconvenient people and "accidents" converge a lot. 
 
H.


 
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Reactive       4/1/2010 10:57:27 PM

The PRC bandits know their history.





 

Inconvenient people and "accidents" converge a lot. 

 

H.


I've been wondering about this too, didn't want to sound overenthusiastic or tempt fate not to deliver, this guy is currently a liability to China, the last thing they want getting in the way is a "problem" on their doorstep. He is weak, trying to secure a hereditary succession...Very vulnerable as I see it.. This action is not a statement of strength, but a statement of weakness.
 
I was thinking it would be the ideal time for an accident to happen... And get rid of this annoyance of a man, and his personality cult..
 
One way or another, any South Korean action needs to make a clear case of what is in the best interests of the PRC here, and it is they who will be crucial in passing action in the security council if, as I suspect, a resolution is going to be tabled once the enquiry is complete..
 
He's (jong-il) has been a thorn in everyone's side for too long... his usefulness to the PRC is now questionable... do they want the DPRK to continue his dynasty or would they rather have a nice stable Junta in charge, like their good friends in Burma..
 
On the other hand, a train does make a jucy target, anyone wish we had a strike aircraft whose stealth aspects could give it an element of deniability? ; )
 
R
 

 
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Reactive       4/1/2010 11:12:32 PM




If my supposition is somewhat correct, the NorKs probably perceived their attack as a justified reprisal.  Now Kim Light has been summoned to China for a haircutting appointment, i.e., a trim down of his ego, apparently.


v^2







Ditto.

 

Although this visit is pre-arranged and to be expected for a few months, commies do seem to have better grasp of the event than both the ROK and the US. However, we can't measure exactly how insane Kim Jong-Mentally-Ill is.

I think if you see north korean tv (and i'm sure you have), and the extent to which it is mainly used to endlessly eulogise Kim Jong-Il (and his father) as demigod-like, you'd probably answer that question to everyone's satisfaction, to use a term of suitable endearment from the UK, the man is a twat.

Having said this, he's also managed not to have been assassinated (something that even his idol, Stalin, didn't manage) the paranoia associated with these dictators is no coincidence, he has found the only way that he is able to rule a country like his without a daily risk to his person: by being absolutely and uttely ruthless and repressing even the slightest dissent with extreme cruelty. And this from a man who loves basketball and loves hollywood films...
 
I think probably in another life he'd be a charming accountant etc, but it does seem like absolute power, especially inherited power, has a tendency to remove moral limits and the objective judgement of whether one's own rule is beneficial, a sort of narcissism that is enforced by tens of thousands of apparatchiks and enthusiastically, almost frantically cheering crowds.
 
I would say that he's learned that he can play at brinksmanship, no one has ever called his bluff, and really it's China that you now need to aim any response at, let it sense the pending chaos on its doorstep and see if anything changes, NK CAN NOT GO TO WAR or it loses.. so if you don't give it a robust response, at the very least it can continue to do this at will until it achieves the appeasement that unfortunately has summed up the north/south relationship.
 
Just my two pence..
 
R
 
 

 
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Hamilcar    Heart attack or stroke.   4/1/2010 11:15:56 PM
Its simpler and can be timed to reduce suspicion. If I were Kim, now I would be very worried, but then he is insane.
 
I should also note that Kim's entourage and supporters are exactly just like he is. What did it take to remove Saddam Hussein or even Manuel Noriega. What would it take to remove Chavez or Ahmadinejad? Remember Pol Pot, and Idi Amin, or Pappa Doc Duvalier as well?
 
Just remove the man does not remove the problem. Those despots damaged their nations when they raised generations of psychopaths that follow/followed them in their cult of personality. The bandits they create/created when they do/did  will not/do not go quietly.
 
It will be a mess, no matter if Kim strokes out tonight or if we get him or the Chinese pack him off. His son is an effete  weakling who will be crushed quick. Joke we may about Kim himself, but that psychopath is one extremely dangerous criminal who's managed to stand the PRC bandits off for decades. He is no weakling despite his sick Spice Girls fetish and his propensity to dress up as a cowboy one day and a geisha girl the next.          

H.
 
 
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DarthAmerica       4/1/2010 11:23:39 PM

I think DA was only suggesting that it's entirely possible the ship's hull breached from contacting a wreck or natural object, rapidly filled with water and snapped its spine.  Me, I suspect the NorKs meticulously scripted the event based on years of observation and planning.  When the little flotilla changed course for behind the island the NorKs dispatched one of their stealthy semi-submersibles based in the area (reportedly they have 20-some stationed nearby) which sprinted under radar cover of the island to a set firing position and submerged with only a periscope and whip above the waves.  Shore-based surveillance may have contributed.  Ships rounded the island and the NorK boat launched a single passive homer that crept at quiet speed toward the predict point, picked up the engine or prop noise and then struck and shattered the keel.  The NorK boat waited, saw another ship heading its way, popped up, sprinted for friendly waters and fired-off decoys at intervals, which blew around in the winds.  Sokcho felt it had enough information to open fire and shot up the "birds."  The untouched NorK boat sped to the coastline where it masked and worked its way back, at night, to the staging area/pen.  Very Clancy-esque and far more intriguing than hull breach.  And not any less likely at this point in time given the other scenarios speculated upon.  The NorK/Iranian semi-submersibles/speedboats are a really difficult problem to counter in the enemy's backyard.  A Cheonan-type event is exactly what those boats were designed to accomplish.  0.02


v^2


That's exactly the point. Earlier in the thread, and while almost everybody else is/was throwing wild unsubstantiated irresponsible allegations and incorrect assertions about the physics behind something like this, a question about what else besides a torpedo/water hammer scenario could have caused this. The point was to remind those who are assuming things that there are other possibilities that could and have caused similar structural failures in the past to other vessels. I'm simply doing what I know the investigators are doing and methodically listing out the possibilities. As more information becomes available, THEN, I'll start narrowing down the most likely causes. That's the way it's done in the real world. Anything less is misinformed, flawed and if it was done this way by those responsible for determining the true cause, dangerous.

One of the things that is consistently failing to get a second look is friendly fire. It's an extremely necessary consideration and equally likely at this point as any Nork aggression based on available data. Again, for those with selective reading abilities, this isn't me saying friendly fire caused this. Just that it could have and needs to be considered until ABSOLUTELY ruled out. Shooting at birds. This is very possible. But either way, true or false, it would indicate a serious flaw in the PID procedures that MUST gate a red status on weapons and firing. By true or false, I mean birds or unidentified respectively. In either case the firing was at something that should not have been shot at. A lot of things can cause this. Panic being the most likely and common. If the South Koreans fired at something they weren't supposed to, then who else might have been fired on erroneously? Cheonan perhaps? It's possible. Because in addition to panic, a flawed ROE can easily cause a friendly fire event. This needs to be looked at just like grounding, mines, and internal ammunition or other accidental explosion. The reason is obvious and millions of lives depend on the answer.

Another thing, an intangible, unless you have the experience is Korean culture. The consequences of a mistake like this could cause serious political backlash if it's determined to be a self inflicted wound. Maintaining reputation and saving face is as crucial as physical security to a Korean. Anyone with experience working with Koreans knows this. Something I do constantly...
http://media8.dropshots.com/photos/424937/20091217/b_095948.jpg" width="300" height="400" alt="" /> 
 
So having said that, those of you who are convinced that this was a North Korean attack may turn out to be right! But if so, at this point it would ONLY be via luck and not anything even remotely approaching actual evidence. Just consider your sources! Consider what the motivations are.
<
 
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Hamilcar       4/2/2010 12:27:13 AM
You could post in violet or some other color.
 
You could also READ. Nobody here is even convinced its a hostile or friendly fire act yet. 
 
Especially if you read my treatments of torpedo, mine, radar, (about which you still know nothing) you will see the test of negation applied to each hypothesis presented in light of the data we know.
 
Drift mine=no.
Moored mine=no.
Bottom mine=possible, but unlikely.
Torpedo=again unlikely. The times of engagement and the ranges (interval) in the battle-space just don't add up.
Friendly gunfire=no. The islanders say the gunfire happened at a time AFTER the ROK geophysical service reported the underwater explosion  as a seismic event. Note the underlined. Somebody triangulated it and located it accurate enough to know it was in the water. That whole area must be wired with sound and seismic sensors if they can do that.   
Titanic hypothesis=well we know what physics says about THAT nonsense.
Which leaves where I'm headed, which you could follow, if you paid attention, instead of claiming that you had been doing what I am doing here right in front of you and that you are a superior mind with superior insight and with infallible insight possess secret knowledge.
 
You don't have that. Not even close, or you would see that I am leaning toward accident. Example: the Cheonan carries depth charges, M-9s, very powerful ones that are thrown from launchers or rolled from the stern.
 
 
Those will produce a water hammerThey are designed to because that is how they kill subs.
 
Now that is a hypothesis that begins to answer some of the questions of why the Cheonan rolled instead of lifted: why a hull tear could start, why there was no flame or smoke or why the Cheonan might have headed for shore to attempt a grounding, why there was some confusion about "a small hole in the hull aft", that mysterious five minutes emergency, and a whole lot of other contradictory facts that are suddenly no longer contradictory, when this hypothesis is tested. THAT could be confused for a torpedo attack if the people who would have screwed that up and dropped one armed that close aboard, were killed in the hammer.
 
Would you try to hide that cause for a debacle? Remember the USS Iowa turret explosion and the gay sailor story?
 
You don't even begin to know how to do a proper analysis.
 
Is the depth charge close aboard and shallow detonation hypothesis plausible? Yes. Is it the likely mechanism? Not any more likely than the others I listed as plausible hypothesis, but as yet not verifiable by physical proofs.   

As for the PRC bandits, their unbalanced mercantilist policies, so like the British Empire of the 1920s and 1930s, finally caught with them due to something called a Slump or what we call a Depression which is a normal part of the capitalist boom bust cycle rgar even communist nations suffer because they use money and credit. Your hero, Obama, has no more clue about this, than he has about why his Keynesian pumping and mixed economy attempts to both stimulate domestic economic activity and socialize the American polity has failed to both redistribute wealth or to prevent our rich from sending their investment and job production overseas (to China). Idiot that he is, he's never heard of market forces or the irrationality of markets or that money always follows profits. He should fire Krugman and pay attention to some Austrian school economists.They would teach him how to balance a checkbook.
 
I hope that was clear for everybody.
             
H.     
 
 
 
 
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DarthAmerica    The Worm Has Turned...   4/2/2010 1:35:13 AM
In Blackjack the previous post would be called insurance. Next comes surrender. This is why you don't go off the deep end with allegations, pride and emotion. It's why the S Koreans are behaving as they are. 


..."Sometimes the shortest distance between a and b isn't always a straight line" 

-DA 
 
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