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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Mikko       4/1/2010 2:52:53 PM
If this was about deliberate aggression on North Korean's behalf, then what will the aftermath be like?
 
As I understad, the headcount is quite severe even for a clash between Koreas. 
 
Do you see a build-up for a confrontation here, or will it just go down as "just another reason why we don't like each other"?
 
And... how will it begin? By whom? Straight out to putting Seoul under artillery barrage, or will there be steady escalations?
 
M
 
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Reactive    And they wonder why people question their continually changing line...   4/1/2010 2:53:05 PM

Shipwreck Survivors Prevented from Telling Their Story

The military has kept preventing the survivors of the sunken Navy corvette Cheonan from communicating with the outside world since the incident Friday. All 52 survivors except for six officers including Captain Choi Won-il are hospitalized in the Armed Forces Capital Hospital in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province.

According to a report by the Defense Ministry Monday, 44 are injured, four of them seriously. But the military is keeping even those with light or no injuries at the hospital.

The hospital strictly limits media access, allowing only visits by family members. "We got an order from the spokesman's office of the ministry to remain tight-lipped," a hospital staffer said. The Navy explained this is a necessary measure for psychological wellbeing of the survivors, but there is speculation that the aim is to prevent information about the incident coming out.

The military believes piecemeal information delivered by the survivors will not help the government?s efforts to get to the bottom of the disaster, but the opposition argues that testimony from the survivors will be helpful in establishing the cause of the sinking and assist rescue efforts.

Some family members of the survivors are saying that the survivors are not telling them about the moment when the ship started sinking. They say they do not know whether this is because they simply do not remember because of the shock, or whether the military told them to keep mum. The military is also not permitting outside doctors to treat the injured soldiers.

Prof. Ha Ji-hyun at the Department of Psychiatry at Konkuk University Medical Center, said, "When a person who survived a major catastrophe and sustained serious psychological shock returns home and stays there alone, they may experience guilt and paranoia. The survivors can recover at a much greater speed if they share their experiences and communicate with other survivors."

Some argue that the survivors will be vulnerable to greater psychological shock if they are exposed to the public before they have come to terms with the incident. But other experts say the isolation could discourage survivors form telling the truth about the incident.

The Navy has apparently ordered Patrol Boat 501, which rescued 56 survivors soon after the incident, not to ask any questions to the survivors and isolate them until Navy officers reach the site. Captain Choi delivered the order to the survivors gathered together and he reportedly told them to keep their mouths shut.

 
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Mikko       4/1/2010 2:57:50 PM

Shipwreck Survivors Prevented from Telling Their Story

Conspiracy / UFO / Kraken / Apocalypse etc enthusiasts are having a 24/7 boner over this.
 
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gf0012-aust       4/1/2010 2:59:03 PM

and that her hull was made of inferior brittle steel 

on a side note, titanic is also a good example of what happens whern you don't tightly  manage the contractor and building processes

she had inconsistent quality  control in place and even mixed quality in the build.  eg some plates which were slated for higher quality steel were replaced with those of a higher iron content, and some were even iron and not steel.  Hence when shearing forces were applied (ge high loads) instead of holding the line the rivet heads sheared off - and invariably suddenly as they reached their mechanical load breaking points.  The hull then opened up like a zipper as that band of lower quality rivets failed in succession.  They used lower quality rivets because the accountants feared that the build was running over cost and would impact on availability of the ship in a profitable shipping period (season start and thus investor/backer fallout)

the other thing with titanic is that it was a legacy and accumulation of a series of events all unfortunately converging at the wrong time.  indeed most catastrophic events are a culmination of a series of smaller events that when combined turn catastrophic
 

 
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gf0012-aust       4/1/2010 3:09:50 PM

Shipwreck Survivors Prevented from Telling Their Story

That's to be expected though.  If a formal investigation is underway then they would be ordering staff to keep their counsel so as to not impede or disrupt by association the job of the investigation teams.  at this stage it's also a potential court martial event as the commander, xo and watch officers are all at risk of being canned for negligence in their duties.  as such they will not want to do anything to pollute the integrity of the investigation process.

it is normal to actually direct military personnel to not make public comment, and it is part of standing orders when dealing with the press (and its universal in nearly all militaries that permission to comment on critical events has to be cleared at a higher force command level etc....)

so it is a standard operating procedure to initiate media and commentary shutdown, what it unfort does by association is  let the more frantic already assume that there is a cover up.  The prinicple is normal, but the timing unfort is always seen as unhelpful to relatives etc who are likely to regard it as evidence of a command cover up. (and it may well be, but the order to shut down commentary is a SOP anyway)

I would imagine that all crew have been ""read the riot act"  and that all commentary is now supposed to go through that naval command area or via their defence media liaison officers.

 
 
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Reactive       4/1/2010 3:36:45 PM



Shipwreck Survivors Prevented from Telling Their Story





That's to be expected though.  If a formal investigation is underway then they would be ordering staff to keep their counsel so as to not impede or disrupt by association the job of the investigation teams.  at this stage it's also a potential court martial event as the commander, xo and watch officers are all at risk of being canned for negligence in their duties.  as such they will not want to do anything to pollute the integrity of the investigation process.




it is normal to actually direct military personnel to not make public comment, and it is part of standing orders when dealing with the press (and its universal in nearly all militaries that permission to comment on critical events has to be cleared at a higher force command level etc....)




so it is a standard operating procedure to initiate media and commentary shutdown, what it unfort does by association is  let the more frantic already assume that there is a cover up.  The prinicple is normal, but the timing unfort is always seen as unhelpful to relatives etc who are likely to regard it as evidence of a command cover up. (and it may well be, but the order to shut down commentary is a SOP anyway)




I would imagine that all crew have been ""read the riot act"  and that all commentary is now supposed to go through that naval command area or via their defence media liaison officers.




 


What we usually see in a similar incident where there is no suspicion of foul-play is that information comes out slowly, but is usually not contradictory by design, I think whilst it may be standard operating procedure to play down speculation, the way that information has been disseminated, and the fact that every leak has reinforced the idea that there is ample circumstantial evidence that this is not an "ordinary" accident. On the one hand the military is keen to (at least appear to) hold an "open and honest investigation to provide maximum transparency" its statements have been largely misleading or obfuscatory, and have been refuted though subsequent leaks which were then confirmed by them anyway, it would be better if they declared a media blackout/no further comment until the investigation was concluded, rather than the contradictory shambles of media management that is currently underway.
 
I don't think it's a case of "conspiracy theory" when it comes to scrutinising the evidence with our own, subjective eyes, knowing that we don't know enough to be sure of anything, but seeing at least where the evidence to date points...
 
I hate conspiracy theories, but I don't see this as one of them... 
 
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gf0012-aust       4/1/2010 3:49:59 PM
I don't think it's a case of "conspiracy theory" when it comes to scrutinising the evidence with our own, subjective eyes, knowing that we don't know enough to be sure of anything, but seeing at least where the evidence to date points... 

I hate conspiracy theories, but I don't see this as one of them... 

yep, not disputing the fact that there are holes in the messages from the SKGov SKN to date - just the fact that this kind of forces direction wrt to public commentary is not unexpected - and is par for the course.

ditto re conspiracy theorists etc..  most of what we're all doing is speculating on likely events based on what we individually know of how systems and capabilities do work under normal published circumstances etc etc....

I certainly abide by the view that more is being witheld than is being portrayed "openly and honestly"' by the authorities, but thats their own fault because their answers and responses to date have been technically deficient and somewhat negligent.

they're hoisting themselves on their own petard. 

 
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Mikko       4/1/2010 4:05:57 PM
I by no means was implying that anyone here or any post on this thread is even close of being about conspiracy theories. I merely implied that people that have the tendency to explain mysterious events with for example extraterrestrial influence probably can find a lot to feast upon in this case where the secrecy is this intense.
 
You know, the kinds that lower their voices to whisper saying "... and the survivors were told to shut up of what REALLY happened".
 
All your speculations are far from trying to explain world more interesting than it already is (as conspiracy theorists etc. do). 
 
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gf0012-aust       4/1/2010 4:18:22 PM

I by no means was implying that anyone here or any post on this thread is even close of being about conspiracy theories. I merely implied that people that have the tendency to explain mysterious events with for example extraterrestrial influence probably can find a lot to feast upon in this case where the secrecy is this intense.

You know, the kinds that lower their voices to whisper saying "... and the survivors were told to shut up of what REALLY happened".

All your speculations are far from trying to explain world more interesting than it already is (as conspiracy theorists etc. do). 


there might be a loss in translation here, I'm not saying that anyone in here is a conspiracy theorist - I'm saying that they've mismanaged the media management to date and thats doing more to confuse than resolve whats available to date in the public domain. as such the hounds are running and they've already lost control

 
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Reactive       4/1/2010 4:22:11 PM




I don't think it's a case of "conspiracy theory" when it comes to scrutinising the evidence with our own, subjective eyes, knowing that we don't know enough to be sure of anything, but seeing at least where the evidence to date points... 




I hate conspiracy theories, but I don't see this as one of them... 




yep, not disputing the fact that there are holes in the messages from the SKGov SKN to date - just the fact that this kind of forces direction wrt to public commentary is not unexpected - and is par for the course.




ditto re conspiracy theorists etc..  most of what we're all doing is speculating on likely events based on what we individually know of how systems and capabilities do work under normal published circumstances etc etc....




I certainly abide by the view that more is being witheld than is being portrayed "openly and honestly"' by the authorities, but thats their own fault because their answers and responses to date have been technically deficient and somewhat negligent.




they're hoisting themselves on their own petard.
As always, respect your opinion, I guess they really need to figure out what to do next, a 20+ day long investigation at least gives them time to consider all the options, and is probably in that regard a helpful tool here..
 
They are indeed being a bit stupid, obfuscatory, it would be far more practical to simply declare that for reasons of national security, there will be no info made public or confirmed until the investigation was concluded, the problem is that I guess is how to manage the leaks without appearing to be clamping down on information, they seem to have adopted a pattern of generally playing things down, and I think it will emerge later on that, as you say, they will be severely criticised should the results of the investigation confirm suspected or proven enemy activity. 
 
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