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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
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Hamilcar       4/1/2010 11:05:27 AM
Oh one more thing. The Titanic flooded front to back. The Cheonan by the accounts we see and read, flooded back to front.
This is indeed the way to celebrate an April's Fool Day! 

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Hamilcar    The run aground theory.   4/1/2010 11:26:18 AM";) repeat-x scroll 0% 0% transparent;" valign="top">" border="0" vspace="5" hspace="1" alt="" /> Editorial" border="0" vspace="5" hspace="1" alt="" /> Opinion" border="0" vspace="7" hspace="1" alt="" /> National" border="0" vspace="5" hspace="1" alt="" /> North Korea" border="0" vspace="5" hspace="1" alt="" /> International" border="0" vspace="5" hspace="1" alt="" /> Business" border="0" vspace="5" hspace="1" alt="" /> Arts & Entertainment

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Reactive       4/1/2010 11:29:57 AM
The "water hammer" effect doesn't work simply by lifting the ship on a localised point, that is part of the effect, but the significant point is that the force is applied so quickly and violently that it forces the ship to flex (which it can't do), gravity is responsible for completing the sheer when the ship is then flexed in the opposite direction as the bubble subsides into a cavity, it produces a complete mechanical sheer, as described by the divers. it's such an immediate and violent application of pressure that it snaps the ship like a matchstick, ships are designed to be able to tolerate loads acting unevenly across the hull, dry docks, violent 30'+ waves etc all exert completely different forces on a hull, all are well within tolerance. 
Running aground so that the contact completely misses the bow of the ship? No holing or damage anywhere except for a precise "cheesewire" effect? No obvious scarring/gouging running along the hull? Most importantly, no nearby rocks that could have caused this? If there is no one has mentioned it.
There has been speculation that she may have run aground, look at the area though, the seabed is 20m-40m below, none of the dive teams has mentioned the obstacle of working against a reef/outcrop. Seems strange that they are keeping perfectly healthy soldiers under media-blackout in a secure hospital, in addition to all the other strange behaviour, do you really expect they are terrified of the prospect of having to report that the ship ran aground? Also, Darth, do you imagine that the crew would be unable to tell an "explosion" from "running aground", can you think of why it would be impossible to confuse the two?
The reason people are challenging the "experts" here is that in many instances they have lied or obfuscated, and in any case, their statements have, for the most part, been completely contradictory.
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Reactive       4/1/2010 11:56:35 AM
Judging by the mobile phone call to one of the sailors onboard which was terminated at 21:16 due to an "emergency situation" and the explosion taking place at 21:21 (or a couple seconds before technically) there was 5 minutes of emergency activity that hasn't been explained at all, anywhere.
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jhpigott       4/1/2010 12:03:14 PM

Judging by the mobile phone call to one of the sailors onboard which was terminated at 21:16 due to an "emergency situation" and the explosion taking place at 21:21 (or a couple seconds before technically) there was 5 minutes of emergency activity that hasn't been explained at all, anywhere.

certainly odd - here is some more detail on the time discrepancy
Sinking of Cheonan Occurred at 9:22 p.m.
The Ministry of National Defense once again corrected the time at which the South Korean warship Cheonan supposedly sank.
Ministry officials said at a press briefing on Thursday a seismic wave detected by the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources shows that the accident actually occurred around 9:22 p.m.
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"But one of the missing sailors told his father on the phone at 9:16 p.m. that he had to hang up as there was an emergency situation, according to Rep. Lee Jong-gull of the Democratic Party."
not sure how it could be a mine based upon the above noted timeframes. The six minute difference bwtn the time the ROK sailor hung up the phone with his Dad because of an emergency situation and the explosion suggests forewarning.
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Hamilcar       4/1/2010 12:09:59 PM
A five minute 53/56 VA torpedo run is 7500 meters interval, way out of chase range for that  wet heater, but not for the 53/57 NAVOL type of very similar construction.
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Reactive       4/1/2010 12:16:02 PM
Maybe the issue (in my mind anyway) isn't "why didn't they hear a torpedo" but rather, "did they hear a torpedo closing and try to lose it in the surf, as Hamilcar said..
I think they're making it quite clear that they're not telling us the full story until they choose to, I can understand why that is the case but I think there's ample evidence available to see which scenarios are possible, and which aren't.
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Reactive       4/1/2010 12:45:26 PM
And I think that it's very unlikely that the latest torpedo technology that North Korea has is a model from the 50's...

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Reactive       4/1/2010 1:44:46 PM
At the briefing, the ministry said it had altered its estimate of the time of the unexplained blast to 9:22 p.m., 23 minutes earlier than the time announced the night of the sinking, said Col. Lee Young-gi, a senior defense official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The colonel, who showed the clip recorded by the thermal observation device, said the military adjusted the time of the explosion after learning that the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources detected a seismic wave of 1.4 to 1.5 magnitude underwater at 9:21:58 p.m., when the Cheonan was presumed to have sunk.

The ministry also moved up the time of the first report on the incident from the Cheonan to the Pyeongtaek fleet four minutes earlier than an initial estimate of 9:30 p.m.

?Even though 1.4 to 1.5 magnitude is equivalent to a degree of explosion of 170 to 180 kilograms (374 to 396 pounds) of TNT, there was only one signal we detected so we are not sure whether the blast was caused by a collision of two vessels or an explosion,? said Lee Hui-il, a scholar at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources.
How could the stern of the ship hit an underwater rock with the force described, and yet completely miss the bow and not cause any damage other than a single catastrophic slice?? How come there seem to be many ships in the area now, including some far bigger than the Cheonan, yet no one knows if there's a reef there? The fact that an official said "we dont know if there are any reefs in the area" when asked to confirm the negative at the very least it indicates that to their knowledge, and on currently plotted charts, there are none? Has it come to light that any gigantic 20-40 meter rocky protrusions right where the ship sank have been noticed? Do you think someone on any of the ships MIGHT notice if they were being asked to dive/salvage/investigate this? Do you think they might mention this?
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jhpigott       4/1/2010 1:57:24 PM

This nut job hardly ever leaves NK. Makes me wonder if this trip is not somehow related to the Cheonan incident.

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April 1, 2010

Fresh Signs Point to Kim Jong-il Visit to China

There are predictions that North Korean leader Kim Jong-ill could arrive in Beijing as early as this weekend as a flurry of what looks like preparations are underway. Speculation about an impending visit had been around for some time, but now South Korean government officials are saying the chances are high, chiefly because what looks like an advance delegation making preparations for the visit has arrived in Beijing.

On past occasions, these vanguards used to arrive in the Chinese capital two to three days ahead of Kim?s visit.

One source in Beijing familiar with North Korean affairs, said, about a dozen officials in charge of escorting the North Korean leader arrived in Beijing on Tuesday aboard an Air Koryo flight, and 20 others who look like bodyguards arrived aboard a train from Pyongyang. A team of North Korean military officers led by An Yong-gi, the head of external affairs for the North Korean army, also arrived with the group. ?They appear to be traveling with An?s group for security reasons,? the source said. ?The North Korean military delegation left for Africa on the same day, but the advance team has remained in Beijing and is discussing protocol and security matters with Chinese authorities.?

Top Chinese officials are returning to Beijing from overseas trips, fueling predictions of Kim?s impending trip. Xi Jinping, who is in charge of North Korean affairs, arrived back in Beijing on Wednesday after a tour of Eastern Europe, while Jia Qinglin, the fourth top leader in the politbureau, is returning from a trip to Africa. In previous trips to China, the North Korean leader met the entire top leadership.

There are forecasts that Kim may arrive not much later than Thursday given the schedules of high-ranking officials in both China and North Korea. Chinese President Hu Jintao is set to visit the U.S. on April 11 to attend a nuclear summit, while April 15 is North Korea?s major holiday, the birthday of former leader Kim Il-sung.

Still, not everyone is convinced, with observers saying no additional security measures have been spotted in the Chinese border town of Dandong, which is on the route Kim?s armored train took during his previous visits. One trader in Dandong who deals with North Korea said, ?Security is usually tightened two to three days ahead of the North Korean leader?s visit and agents search for bombs, but no such signs are visible.? Another piece of evidence against an impending visit is that Kim Yong-nam, North Korea?s nominal head of state, is currently on a trip to Africa.

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