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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Reactive       3/31/2010 9:30:07 PM
"The U.S. government feels it's important for the South Korean government to conduct a thorough investigation of what caused the Cheonan to split in half," a source in Washington said. "Even if a North Korean link is discovered, Washington is not going to jump ahead of the South Korean government?s announcement."
 
In other words, they need to downplay it to avoid to be seen to be being predjudicial, fans of the UN will note that the most we can hope for initially is some form of resolution, that seems to be, quite illogically in my opinion, most people's definition of what it takes to be "moral" in international affairs. They will conclude it was a Torpedo, it's almost inevitable even with the facts we had a few days ago, if I am wrong I will humbly admit it, but they're filling out the paperwork before unveiling the reality to a perplexingly unaware public..
 
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VelocityVector    Reactive   3/31/2010 9:42:49 PM

How many amongst those living would willingly die and sacrifice their loved ones due to the "necessity" of disclosing the actual truth?  Few.  And the politicos appreciate this well.  It also serves their self-interests, coincidently.  I do hope that the skipper and his crew are not scapegoated unfairly.  BTW "we" have whacked a few of theirs, too, over the years.

v^2

 
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Reactive       3/31/2010 10:03:54 PM

How many amongst those living would willingly die and sacrifice their loved ones due to the "necessity" of disclosing the actual truth?  Few.  And the politicos appreciate this well.  It also serves their self-interests, coincidently.  I do hope that the skipper and his crew are not scapegoated unfairly.  BTW "we" have whacked a few of theirs, too, over the years.

I guess that in either case, we will know, can't see how they can blame the skipper/crew in this instance, I think the political reaction is hard to predict just yet, with the footnote being that they seem to have covered up almost every part of evidence until it was leaked or reported directly from sailors, and yes, I expect that this hints at what the conclusions may be, "no conclusive  proof of North Korean involvement" is a phrase I suspect to hear, it still puzzles me why the western media are sticking to stories that they know have long since been contradicted by officials in ROK, we will see, I see the purposeful sinking of a vessel and appalling deaths of all onboard to be something that warrants more, public will permitting, time will tell..

v^2



 
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VelocityVector    Reactive   3/31/2010 10:41:09 PM

When the gal/dude you happen to be dancing with places a pistol against your own temple and you already hold a pistol against her/his temple, you may bemoan your respective tatoos, the appearance and the dancing abilities of the partner etc., yet for some reason you dance politely-on even after an "accidental discharge" and the likelihood the event may have occurred due to malice aforethought.  She/he can pretty much ruin your life at will.  How important is principle to you, now, dancer?  Can you count on the bouncer's rescue in time?  As for your family ... well, people tend to cave to bullies from what I can see when more than they are at risk as individuals.  For a time anywise.  If the NorKs ramp-up their overt game, then all bets are off.

v^2

 
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YelliChink       3/31/2010 10:47:04 PM
The problem is that mistake in dealing with Kim the Fat, Ugly and Insane can be deadly, or even suicidal. At this moment, it seems that Kim the Fat, Ugly and Insane ordered this for internal consumption. i.e. to show his political disfavored crowd that they have no power and no control over succession and direction of DPRK. However, it could be that he is deliberately trying to poke ROK just to see how far the US and ROK would allow him to do it. In the later case, there will come another attack, and could be more deadly and more outrageous each time he is excused.
 
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Hamilcar    You know I just crinched some numbers...    3/31/2010 11:08:31 PM
For a speculated attack to be even be set up, the ambush position had to be established  at least a full day in advance. (transit times from the DPRK side bases.)

What that means is that some one, in this outrageous hypothetical situation, had to scout RoKN patrol routes and times and get in close. That bay is just too confined and shallow in parts for a snap shot that depends on a sub or semi-submersible to be in the exact correct position to get a < 4000 meter fire solution on a RoKN corvette. Torpedoes take forever to reach their targets. If, and it is a big if, we speculate a setup, then I wouldn't want a run of more than 120 seconds, because there is the chance that my fish will be SEEN or at least it's bubble wake, if its a wetheater.   Not good for me, if the RoKN patrol in pairs like they should.
 
It just occurred to me that could also why the Cheonan was that far into the shallows and into the surf so close to the island. A desperate captain might run hos ship into surf to shake a wake homer-even if it meant grounding. His crew might stand a better chance that way.
 
Just wanted to throw that out there as to why the torpedo theory still has some serious huge holes in it.
 
H.
 
 
 
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jhpigott       4/1/2010 9:22:17 AM
SK Government shifts tenor on N.Korea-Cheonan connection


After initially ruling out the possibility of North Korean involvement in the sinking of the Patrol Combat Corvette (PCC) Cheonan, the government has been subtly shifting its stance and leaking theories implicating North Korea. In particular, this trend has emerged mainly from the military, the party most directly involved with this incident, leaving some critics charging that they are trying to evade responsibility without providing accurate information to the public.

In the immediate wake of the incident, the Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) and the military detailed the chance of North Korean involvement as slight. Following a security-related ministerial meeting presided over by President Lee Myung-bak just after the accident took place on Friday night, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eun-hye was circumspect, saying, ?At present, we are not clear about the question of a North Korean connection.? In a National Assembly briefing Saturday, Lee Ki-sik, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence operations office, said, ?No North Korean warships have been detected, and there is no possibility of their approaching the waters where the accident took place.? Additionally, the military has stressed on multiple occasions that it has picked up no ?unusual trends? in North Korean military movements while monitoring.

However, starting with a National Assembly National Defense Committee report on Monday, mention of possible North Korean involvement began subtly emerging within the government. Defense Minister Kim Tae-young strongly hinted at a North Korean connection, saying, ?North Korea could do something and then maintain their silence in order to cover it up, or it could be intended to avoid misunderstandings or to maximize the provocation.? Moving a step further, a military official raised the possibility of an ?intentional provocation? by North Korea on Wednesday. While acknowledging that there was no definite evidence, the official said, ?The government sees a more than 90 percent likelihood that the party behind the torpedo attack is North Korea, which could have occurred as a result of something such as an underwater craft.?

As recently as Tuesday, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Park Sun-kyu said, ?As of now, nothing has emerged indicating that North Korea was involved.? But after conservative newspapers continued to take issue with its response, the Cheong Wa Dae seemed to take a step back. On Wednesday, an official there said, ?The position of the Cheong Wa Dae is that we have never ruled out the possibility of North Korean involvement.?


Some analysts are calling the changing positions within the government a strategy of ?scale trading? by the Cheong Wa Dae, which is conscious of objections from certain conservative figures. While some conservatives have made unsubstantiated allegations such as ?It is clearly a North Korean attack, but the government is concealing that fact because of the six-party talks or the inter-Korean summit? or ?MB (President Lee Myung-bak) is afraid of war,? the current administration cannot avoid being conscious of the group, which represents its major support base. Other observers are claiming that the military is also trying to divert attention with claims of an ?external impact? or ?external attack? out of concerns about potential calls for certain individuals to take responsibility or compensation for the family members of the missing sailors.

In response to this, a senior official who worked at the Cheong Wa Dae said, ?If the truth gets cut off, with the government refusing to offer a truthful answer, the people will become distrustful, and it will not be helpful for national security either in the long term.? The official added that the government ?must quickly supply the information necessary for the people to make a judgment.?

In a radio interview, Democratic Party Lawmaker Park Young-sun said, ?There is a tendency in South Korea for the military administration and conservative press to conclude that this kind of incident is an enemy act and to foment an atmosphere of terror.?

?In particular, if they control information, it becomes possible to willfully reconstruct the incident in a way unconnected with the truth,? Park added.
 
 
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jhpigott       4/1/2010 9:23:11 AM
SK Government shifts tenor on N.Korea-Cheonan connection


After initially ruling out the possibility of North Korean involvement in the sinking of the Patrol Combat Corvette (PCC) Cheonan, the government has been subtly shifting its stance and leaking theories implicating North Korea. In particular, this trend has emerged mainly from the military, the party most directly involved with this incident, leaving some critics charging that they are trying to evade responsibility without providing accurate information to the public.

In the immediate wake of the incident, the Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) and the military detailed the chance of North Korean involvement as slight. Following a security-related ministerial meeting presided over by President Lee Myung-bak just after the accident took place on Friday night, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eun-hye was circumspect, saying, ?At present, we are not clear about the question of a North Korean connection.? In a National Assembly briefing Saturday, Lee Ki-sik, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence operations office, said, ?No North Korean warships have been detected, and there is no possibility of their approaching the waters where the accident took place.? Additionally, the military has stressed on multiple occasions that it has picked up no ?unusual trends? in North Korean military movements while monitoring.

However, starting with a National Assembly National Defense Committee report on Monday, mention of possible North Korean involvement began subtly emerging within the government. Defense Minister Kim Tae-young strongly hinted at a North Korean connection, saying, ?North Korea could do something and then maintain their silence in order to cover it up, or it could be intended to avoid misunderstandings or to maximize the provocation.? Moving a step further, a military official raised the possibility of an ?intentional provocation? by North Korea on Wednesday. While acknowledging that there was no definite evidence, the official said, ?The government sees a more than 90 percent likelihood that the party behind the torpedo attack is North Korea, which could have occurred as a result of something such as an underwater craft.?

As recently as Tuesday, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Park Sun-kyu said, ?As of now, nothing has emerged indicating that North Korea was involved.? But after conservative newspapers continued to take issue with its response, the Cheong Wa Dae seemed to take a step back. On Wednesday, an official there said, ?The position of the Cheong Wa Dae is that we have never ruled out the possibility of North Korean involvement.?


Some analysts are calling the changing positions within the government a strategy of ?scale trading? by the Cheong Wa Dae, which is conscious of objections from certain conservative figures. While some conservatives have made unsubstantiated allegations such as ?It is clearly a North Korean attack, but the government is concealing that fact because of the six-party talks or the inter-Korean summit? or ?MB (President Lee Myung-bak) is afraid of war,? the current administration cannot avoid being conscious of the group, which represents its major support base. Other observers are claiming that the military is also trying to divert attention with claims of an ?external impact? or ?external attack? out of concerns about potential calls for certain individuals to take responsibility or compensation for the family members of the missing sailors.

In response to this, a senior official who worked at the Cheong Wa Dae said, ?If the truth gets cut off, with the government refusing to offer a truthful answer, the people will become distrustful, and it will not be helpful for national security either in the long term.? The official added that the government ?must quickly supply the information necessary for the people to make a judgment.?

In a radio interview, Democratic Party Lawmaker Park Young-sun said, ?There is a tendency in South Korea for the military administration and conservative press to conclude that this kind of incident is an enemy act and to foment an atmosphere of terror.?

?In particular, if they control information, it becomes possible to willfully reconstruct the incident in a way unconnected with the truth,? Park added.
 
 
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jhpigott       4/1/2010 9:24:15 AM
Shipwreck Survivors Prevented from Telling Their Story

The military has kept preventing the survivors of the sunken Navy corvette Cheonan from communicating with the outside world since the incident Friday. All 52 survivors except for six officers including Captain Choi Won-il are hospitalized in the Armed Forces Capital Hospital in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province.

According to a report by the Defense Ministry Monday, 44 are injured, four of them seriously. But the military is keeping even those with light or no injuries at the hospital.

The hospital strictly limits media access, allowing only visits by family members. "We got an order from the spokesman's office of the ministry to remain tight-lipped," a hospital staffer said. The Navy explained this is a necessary measure for psychological wellbeing of the survivors, but there is speculation that the aim is to prevent information about the incident coming out.

The military believes piecemeal information delivered by the survivors will not help the government?s efforts to get to the bottom of the disaster, but the opposition argues that testimony from the survivors will be helpful in establishing the cause of the sinking and assist rescue efforts.

Some family members of the survivors are saying that the survivors are not telling them about the moment when the ship started sinking. They say they do not know whether this is because they simply do not remember because of the shock, or whether the military told them to keep mum. The military is also not permitting outside doctors to treat the injured soldiers.

Prof. Ha Ji-hyun at the Department of Psychiatry at Konkuk University Medical Center, said, "When a person who survived a major catastrophe and sustained serious psychological shock returns home and stays there alone, they may experience guilt and paranoia. The survivors can recover at a much greater speed if they share their experiences and communicate with other survivors."

Some argue that the survivors will be vulnerable to greater psychological shock if they are exposed to the public before they have come to terms with the incident. But other experts say the isolation could discourage survivors form telling the truth about the incident.

The Navy has apparently ordered Patrol Boat 501, which rescued 56 survivors soon after the incident, not to ask any questions to the survivors and isolate them until Navy officers reach the site. Captain Choi delivered the order to the survivors gathered together and he reportedly told them to keep their mouths shut.
 
 
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jhpigott       4/1/2010 9:25:14 AM
The manner in which the SK govt is leaking this info to the press is making my head spin . . . it's not NK, maybe it is, no its not, 90% sure it was a NORK torp

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

No N. Korean submarine detected on night navy ship sank: officials

SEOUL, April 1 (Yonhap) -- South Korea said Thursday it did not detect any North Korean submarines near the countries' western sea border on the night a Navy vessel was struck by an unexplained blast and sank, lowering the possibility of an attack from the communist nation.

The defense ministry also said that a separate South Korean naval ship, which was nearby at the time of the incident, opened fire northward toward an "unidentified object," believing it was an enemy vessel fleeing after an attack, but the object caught on radar was probably a flock of birds.

The object, which was about 9.3 kilometers away from the South Korean ship, split and came together again twice, and did not show any ripples, which are usually made when warships are speeding forward, the ministry said.
 
 
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