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Subject: Does the U.S. have the capability to invade and occupy Pakistan?
Roman    2/14/2004 2:27:05 PM
First of all, I should mention that I am not advocating that kind of invasion at all. In fact, I think it would be a horribly bad idea. I am asking because someone on another forum suggested it and I would simply like to clear up whether the U.S. even has the capability to do it. I do not think United States of America does have the capability. Here is my response on that forum: invading Pakistan would be an exceptionally bad move. First of all, Pakistan has nukes which it might well use to defend itself - although the U.S. would undoubtedly try to destroy them (as well as any nuclear facilities) with surprise air strikes in the initial stages of the war. Second, the U.S. would loose Pakistan's cooperation in the War on Terror thus enabling terrorists to regroup. Third, the U.S. does not have the capability to invade Pakistan. The U.S. military is already somewhat strained in Iraq (although troops are ready for another major theatre war in Korea...) so getting enough troops to invade and occupy Pakistan would be impossible. Even assuming the U.S. successfully took care of Pakistan's nukes and other WMD early on, Pakistani conventional military is vastly more powerful than the Iraqi one. On top of that, imagine the guerrilla war that would ensue... Pakistan has 150 million people the vast majority of whom are Sunni and hate the U.S. Compare that to Iraq's 25 million people of which only 20% (5 million) are Sunis that do the fighting. The word 'impossible' to occupy springs to mind... in fact, it would be impossible even if the U.S. did not have 25% of its army entangled in Iraq and did not have to stand by for another major theatre war. In any case, how would even the invasion (not to mention the occupation) of Pakistan proceed? No neighbouring country except perhaps Afghanistan would allow the U.S. to station troops on its soil for the purposes of the invasion - not even India. The U.S. would have to airlift everything to Afghanistan - but how without being allowed to use surrounding airspace? No, an invasion from Afghanistan could at best be an auxiliary, diversionary thrust - the main force would have to come from the sea, as would the majority of aircraft. It would then have to move 2,000 kilometers north through Pakistan to get to Islamabad - the capital. On top of that, large parts of Pakistan are very difficult terrain for armour and mechanized infantry to move through... Again, the word 'impossible' manifests itself prominently in my mind. Basically, the U.S. does not have the capability to even invade, not to mention occupy, Pakistan.
 
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Gods-army    RE:Does the U.S. have the capability to invade and occupy Pakistan?   4/19/2004 2:40:06 PM
hey who wants to invade. just freeze aid to the pakis and let them starve. the people will give the country to the u.s
 
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bigtasty    RE:Does the U.S. have the capability to invade and occupy Pakistan?   4/20/2004 10:11:16 AM
as zhang said using scorched earth would be a factor,as would u.s inevitable air war to degrade pak forces.pak would need to keep forces to deter india,even if u.s was invading. if all else fails,even a strategy of `total war,then a few battlefield nukes would at the very least is all that would be needed.
 
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Roman    How about US and India?   4/21/2004 12:12:16 AM
We have established that the US alone would probably be able to conquer Pakistan but would have a very hard time indeed holding Pakistan due to a massive insurgency that would develop. How about if India was on the US side? India has the population to provide large numbers of troops for the occupation. I think that could make holding Pakistan feasible, but it is still not clear whether it could be done in the long term.
 
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aryan    RE:Does the U.S. have the capability to invade and occupy Pakistan?   4/21/2004 7:59:06 AM
i will try to be as brief as possible... US being accepted as the world's 'super-power' can obviously invade a country like PAKISTAN..but how would it go about? many in here have compared this situation to Iraq and Afghanistan.well, Pakistan is not alone and isolated as iraq and afghantn. as the only Muslim country possessing nuclear power, any attack on pak would draw the attention of the entire Muslim world. there are coutries who will support pak in case of an american invasion. i.e. saudis have very close ties with pak. the fall of pak would be of great concern to them(where would the american pals go after pak) .>> Iran would see it as a direct threat to their sovereignty ,they will extend help to pak >> and ofcourse ,China , the most time-tested and trustworthy friend of Pak would come to its rescue.after all, how can China tolerate Pak being taken over by america and the heavy presence of american military in its backyard! the invasion , no doubt , will be in favor of america but not without heavy casualties. Pak has nukes, if america is out of reach for those nukes , a crucial american interest is not i.e Israel(another reason why saudi arabia would support Pak). With roughly arround 30 F-16s , PAF will not be a match for the well advanced USAF but given its repuatation as one of the most combat-ready air forces of the world , it wouldn't just vanish with out doing any thing..Pak navy would be squashed in no time but the army of over half a million , well trained , equipped , organised & disciplined would give the americans a very hard time. not to forget , an army which has fought three wars with a neighbour many times bigger , with many more resources and armed personnel! america is having so much trouble with iraq and afghntan. occupying Pak would be the worst nightmare. consider this; Jehad would be declared in Pak , every american ,every where in Pak would be a target and the americans would have to take care of the 6th most populated nation of the world! i very much believe that the whole region of south-asia and the surrounding areas would be dragged into a mighty war.cause every country is dependent on another for the safeguard of its interests. if america ever takes on this highly improbable & hypothetical adventure...i don't think it would be with out the help of india and israel!---and it would raise the concerns of Muslims all over the world , to an alarming level.
 
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Roman    Info From Mercenary2K   4/23/2004 3:07:37 PM
He posted this on another thread and I thought it may be useful: "Pakistan has an Army of 550,000 men plus 500,000 Reserves. So around 1,050,000 manpower. It fields around 3,000 tanks has over 400 Fighter Aircraft. It also has around 50-60 Nukes. Currently the Pakistan Army is Ranked 9th in the world, with the overall points of 240. If we look at the Rest of the World's Top 10 Armies they are: The Number beside the country shows the overall points accumulated from its Armed Forces quality, quantity and training. 1.) United States of America 2488 2.) China 827 3.) Israel 617 4.) India 564 5.) Russia 369 6.) South Korea 289 7.) North Korea 274 8.) United Kingdom 259 9.) Pakistan 240 10.) Turkey 235 So With the combined Armed forces of India and USA, Pakistan doesn’t stand much of a chance. India could assemble around 2,000,000 men and USA could send 500,000-700,000 men. The Plan of attack would be to bypass all major Urban Areas and take control of the country side while defeating the Major Armored Formations and Troop concentrations. Special Forces will be sent to secure Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal. But the Invasion would be a total disaster. Pakistan has a population 150,000,000 people. There would be fierce resistance against any sort of Invasion. It also has many trained Jihad's who number over 3,000,000 and these are hard core fighters who fought the Soviets in Afghanistan and currently fighting the Indian Army in Kashmir. Pakistan also makes its own Tanks (Al-Khalid Tank, Al-Zarrar Tank), its own Fighter Planes (Jf-17) and both of which are world class machines. The Pakistani people also have many weapons and will resist ferociously to any invasion. USA will be only invading for its own security for Pakistani Nukes and not to liberate the people of Pakistan. USA cannot invade Pakistan without using India as a staging point of invasion. Also it takes to build up a massive force to Invade Pakistan and could take up to 6-8 Months. Many foreign fighters could come to assist Pakistan and Pakistan’s old Ally China could supply Pakistan with huge quantities of Weaponry like Tanks, Fighters, Armored Personnel Carriers, Artillery, as China certainly does not want any US presence in South Asia as United States already has a significant presence on China’s East Coast with bases in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The fierce Urban Resistance that will come from conquering Pakistan, the difficult terrain in which to launch Armored Thrusts, could see thousands of Casualties in the end. Even after Pakistani Army is defeated, controlling it would be a nightmare. It would Vietnam multiplied 10 times. So in the end, even with a join India-USA invasion of Pakistan is impossible. Although the United States and India, certainly have the means of defeating the Pakistani Army, they have absolute no chance in controlling it."
 
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MetalMan    India would not support an invasion   4/23/2004 3:20:43 PM
while india might not oppose an american invasion of pakistan, india would probably not allow the U.S to use its territory and would probably not involve itself in the war. if india supported the U.S., pakistan would surely fire most of its nukes at india, since it does not have missiles capable of reaching the U.S. there is no doubt that the U.S military can defeat pakistan's military, but the costs would be too high. unlike in iraq, the majority of the population would be opposed to the invasion. pakistan is also a much larger country. so you can expect resistance to be hundreds of times worse than in Iraq. occupying pakistan would be an absolute nightmare. thousands of american servicemen would die, and the costs of financing the occupation would be much higher than the costs of occupying iraq. not only would defeating the pakistani military be much harder than defeating the iraqi military, controlling the country would be exponentially harder. realistically, it's just no feasible.
 
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jacques    RE:India would not support an invasion   4/24/2004 6:34:52 AM
The US is having a hard time occupying trying to suppress a few rag tag rebels in Iraq right now. It seems impossible for the US to be able to occupy Pakistan even with the help of India and China. Perhaps they can outsource India and China to occupy Pakistan, LOL :-))
 
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gf0012-aust    invasion   4/24/2004 12:12:04 PM
The primary issue is what is the political impetrative? If its to encourage regime change, then you don't need to send in a standing army anyway. You can destabilise the economy externally, or you can take Chinas approach to Taiwan - wait for it to wither on the vine and demonstrate lots pf patience whilst making noise about it. You don't need to bring about change by placing 250,000 men on standby etc... Militarily the US stand off and bering about contact without putting the bul.k of its resources at risk. What lunatic would want to invade Pakistan anyway?
 
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Roman    RE:invasion   4/24/2004 7:22:24 PM
Well, the invasion is highly hypothetical - no sane person would actually want it to occur. If you insist on a scenario, however, read my 'Scenario' post below.
 
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Roman    RE:India would not support an invasion   4/24/2004 7:23:52 PM
I agree that India would be unlikely to overtly support such an invasion.
 
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