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Subject: Iran gets the S-300
Shirrush    12/26/2007 2:16:12 PM
Now it's confirmed.
 
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Shirrush       12/26/2007 2:18:44 PM
Thank you again NIE!
Link.
Now what?

 
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reefdiver       12/26/2007 5:26:19 PM
Either the Israeli's or the US's job gets a lot tougher, one or the other strike before the S-300's are delivered, or everyone accepts Iran's nukes. Lets face it - these are intended to protect Iranian nukes.
 
One thing is certain - Russia is making its intentions clearer and clearer with each passing day.
 
 
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usajoe       12/26/2007 6:58:20 PM
Either the Israeli's or the US's job gets a lot tougher, one or the other strike before the S-300's are delivered, or everyone accepts Iran's nukes. Lets face it - these are intended to protect Iranian nukes.
 
One thing is certain - Russia is making its intentions clearer and clearer with each passing day.
 
 
You think that by Iran acquiring at best couple of dozen of this sams that its going to make our
job of striking Iran that hard, than my freind you dont know the capabilities of the USAF.
It will take us about a week if that to get complete air superiority over that 3rd rate air force,
and that's if they even want to come out and play with the most destructive, technologically powerful,
and short of our Boomers and ICBM's the scariest thing in the world the USAF. The only thing that
will be hard is the invasion if we had to do it, and not because there army is so powerful. Most
of the regular forces will either run in the initial attacks, or surrender just after they come in contact with
the US Army and MC. The problem will be as i said before the IRGC, and the basij forces who are hard
core  psychos and will most likely foght to the end and we might have to kill about a million Iranians to get
the job done, and also the very high potential to spread this all over the mid east and cause a much bigger
problem. You see this is the real though problem, not a couple of old Soviet sams!
 

 
 
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dwightlooi       12/26/2007 8:28:22 PM

Either the Israeli's or the US's job gets a lot tougher, one or the other strike before the S-300's are delivered, or everyone accepts Iran's nukes. Lets face it - these are intended to protect Iranian nukes.

 

One thing is certain - Russia is making its intentions clearer and clearer with each passing day.

 


If you believe that a few S-300 or even S-400 batteries can defeat US air dorminance you are seriously misguided. Not to say that these are not dangerous assets, but they are not the silver bullet that turn the tables on superpower aerial projection. Let's put it this way... if it comes down to a full on fight, the S-300 batteries will not last past the first night. The only question is whether they will take a few US aircrafts with them. They may, or they may not, it really depends on whether the US is careless with its mission planning and ELINT mapping. But whether they take down an aircraft or two, they will be obliterated and the US will bomb whatever the US wants to bomb.

Or... more likely... bombs may simply explode where they need to explode and the S-300 batteries will still be showing clear skies.
 
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Shirrush    This just in.   12/27/2007 7:31:03 AM
According to David Eshel's website, it'll be the S-300 PMU1.
 
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DarthAmerica    You are jumping the gun   12/27/2007 10:46:04 AM
No OFFICIAL Russian confirmation has come out about this. YES, I know the Russians "leaked" this but it is quite different from official confirmation. I also realize Iran has shouted to the mountain tops that they are getting S-300s. I even know the Russians hinted that the NIE cold be a cover for a US/Israeli sneak attack. The fact is that nothing is official. This is a lot like "Saudi Arabia is getting Rafales". In other words, this is still mostly a political event rather than a purely military certainty.

Russia wants nothing more than to derail US/Iranian progress and has bolstered Iran with nuclear fuel promises ect. This latest development is meant to add emphasis on the Russian desire to...

a: Keep the US away from the Former Soviet States

b: Keep Kosovo from declaring independence

...Irans statements about the deal are more directed at Russia and designed to pressure the Russians into going through with it. RUSSIA DOES NOT INTEND TO RUSH INTO SOMETHING THIS SIGNIFICANT. What they want is the flexibility to play Washington and Tehran against each other while they push their East European agenda. That they leaked the news rather than announced it is a signal to Washington that they want to negotiate and would delay or cancel this altogether for the right price. If not, then they are willing to provide Iran with enough help to seriously complicate US plans and outright cancel any Israeli plans.

The S-300 would be a dramatic increase in the capability of Iran's IAD but it would not be enough to stop or seriously hurt a US attack. US weapons SYSTEMS are specifically designed to deal with things like this. Also, believe it or not, the USAF/USN/USMC do factor in attrition and can absorb and recover from any losses this increase in Iranian IAD capability could cause.

So calm down, especially Shirrush, and  analyze the situation. ANYBODY caught off guard by this hasn't really been paying attention to whats going on. This is a sign of how successful we have been with Iran lately.

-DA

 
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reefdiver       12/27/2007 11:47:44 AM




Either the Israeli's or the US's job gets a lot tougher, one or the other strike before the S-300's are delivered, or everyone accepts Iran's nukes. Lets face it - these are intended to protect Iranian nukes.
One thing is certain - Russia is making its intentions clearer and clearer with each passing day.

 


If you believe that a few S-300 or even S-400 batteries can defeat US air dorminance you are seriously misguided. Not to say that these are not dangerous assets, but they are not the silver bullet that turn the tables on superpower aerial projection. Let's put it this way... if it comes down to a full on fight, the S-300 batteries will not last past the first night. The only question is whether they will take a few US aircrafts with them. They may, or they may not, it really depends on whether the US is careless with its mission planning and ELINT mapping. But whether they take down an aircraft or two, they will be obliterated and the US will bomb whatever the US wants to bomb.

Or... more likely... bombs may simply explode where they need to explode and the S-300 batteries will still be showing clear skies.
   I never doubted the end result - the US would overwhelm Iran (might however be different for Israel). You say the Iranians might possibly "take a few US aircraft" with them - this is what I refer to. I do not however believe it will be simplistic to take these weapons out if the Iranians actually get them. To the best of my knowledge, neither the US or the Israelis have ever faced the S-300 in combat. If Iran gets these, it will certainly complicate any attacks.   As for using ICBM's as mentioned, its highly unlikely the US will escalate to such in any pre-emptive strike.
I personally, see the S-300's more effective as a tool to further deter weak, wimpy US politicians.
 
 
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DarthAmerica       12/27/2007 2:05:43 PM



   I never doubted the end result - the US would overwhelm Iran (might however be different for Israel). You say the Iranians might possibly "take a few US aircraft" with them - this is what I refer to. I do not however believe it will be simplistic to take these weapons out if the Iranians actually get them. To the best of my knowledge, neither the US or the Israelis have ever faced the S-300 in combat. If Iran gets these, it will certainly complicate any attacks.   As for using ICBM's as mentioned, its highly unlikely the US will escalate to such in any pre-emptive strike.

I personally, see the S-300's more effective as a tool to further deter weak, wimpy US politicians.



The S-300 in Iranian hands isn't going to deter anybody but Israel unless they are willing to do a nuclear strike.

-DA

 
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Darth Squirrel       12/27/2007 5:10:23 PM







   I never doubted the end result - the US would overwhelm Iran (might however be different for Israel). You say the Iranians might possibly "take a few US aircraft" with them - this is what I refer to. I do not however believe it will be simplistic to take these weapons out if the Iranians actually get them. To the best of my knowledge, neither the US or the Israelis have ever faced the S-300 in combat. If Iran gets these, it will certainly complicate any attacks.   As for using ICBM's as mentioned, its highly unlikely the US will escalate to such in any pre-emptive strike.



I personally, see the S-300's more effective as a tool to further deter weak, wimpy US politicians.






The S-300 in Iranian hands isn't going to deter anybody but Israel unless they are willing to do a nuclear strike.

-DA


That is, of course, why the announcement was made.  The US has made clear that it is not going to attack.  Why do you think all of the sudden Saudi Arabia begins kissing Iran's ass, the Russian uranium shipments FINALLY go through, and Iran starts getting the red carpet treatment from the world's idiot geopolitical commentators?  Israel is the only country left to deter.  Now the Russians are saying "well as your NIE points our there is no Iranian nuclear weapons program then there is no legitimate reason for any country to attack it, so we will now be sending the nuclear fuel and the Favorits." 
I did have to laugh at a post that mentioned the Russian suggestion of "a possible US -Israeli sneak attack..."  lol.  That sounds like a Rosobonexport sales pitch.  Funny stuff.
 
It is pointless to comment on how this impacts any potential American strike on Iran - THERE ISN'T GOING TO BE ONE and I said that a long time ago.  BUSH IS A MAN OF VERY LITTLE RESOLVE.  What?  Oh it took alot of resolve to engage in a useless holding action in Iraq while letting the Syrians and Iranians get away with murder (and the bomb)?  And to look the other way while North Korea proliferates nuclear weapons know-how so Bush can go through with his Clintonesque submission to Kim's blackmail?   He's like one of these artificial trees you get at Target that your 1 year-old can knock over.
 
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DarthAmerica    Darth Sqirrel   12/27/2007 11:36:10 PM


 
It is pointless to comment on how this impacts any potential American strike on Iran - THERE ISN'T GOING TO BE ONE and I said that a long time ago.  BUSH IS A MAN OF VERY LITTLE RESOLVE.

You do not have any idea what you are talking about. NONE.
-DA

 
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