Minimal Air Defense

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Subject: Minimal Air Defense
Roman 5/29/2007 8:57:07 PM

What kind of minimal air defense (in terms of personnel and equipment) would be the smallest air defense worth having? By 'minimal' I mean the smallest that is still worth obtaining and maintaining at all - any smaller and one would be better off not fighting for the skies at all and investing the money elsewhere.

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B.Smitty 6/12/2007 9:31:02 PM

Remember folks, the country we are talking about has the defense budget of Kyrgystan.

My apologies. The correct spelling is, of course, Kyrgyzstan.

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french stratege 6/13/2007 6:39:45 AM

A 32 year procurement cycle? What, are you going to buy 1 Rafale ever 5 years? Is this nation going to have to wait until 2039 before their non-minimal air defenses are in place? Did you factor in 32 years of inflation? Did you factor in mid life upgrades for all of this hardware over that 32 year period?

It is the maximum normal life duration for equipment with electronic refit at midlife.Ammunitions last 20 yrs mx

We assume that effort stay at least at this level and budget goes with inflation

For small nation, they buy a single batch on loans (like 10 years).I took credit interest in account.

For exemple buying 7 Rafale would cost 500 m$ with 6 mica per plane +support and initial spares.With credit about 600 m€ on 12 yrs (state rate interest).So 50 m$ per year on 84 m$..

Also, what about trucks, C4ISR, night vision equipment, and all the other misc equipment that makes a modern military go?

I took that in account: I separated truck and I include C4ISR in infantry cost : 6000 € per man

To equip a man cost much less than 6000€. Those 6000 € include also night vision, radios, common light weapons like platoon AT rocket launchers and machine gun plus ammuntions.

I took 1500 € for individual rifle with war ammunitions, 150 € for helmet, 350 € for bullet proof jacket,150 € for gaz mask, 1100 € for clothes, 6000 € for machine gun (one for 30 i.e 1 per platoon of 12 men but add support ratio) etc..

8m USD for infrastructure? What will that buy? Sure won't by much in the way of base improvements, new training facilities, etc., not to mention air traffic control, or any modern communications. Will this even cover electricity and water?

Infrastructures are build at local price!

Also, if you have a combat force of 3-4000, you'll likely have to pay a similar number of civilians or military personnel performing all manner of non-combat duties from answering phones, to cooking and cleaning, to maintenance, and so on.

In conscript armies all these easy tasks are fulfilled by draftees of course.

Normally you took the most unfit for combat dratees after boot camp, to do those support tasks.

I took in account the normal ration of civilian for a draftee army who are at armed force headquarters (purchasing, HQ secretary and so on...)

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Herald1234 6/13/2007 7:31:43 AM

It is the maximum normal life duration for equipment with electronic refit at midlife.Ammunitions last 20 yrs mx

We assume that effort stay at least at this level and budget goes with inflation

For small nation, they buy a single batch on loans (like 10 years).I took credit interest in account.

For exemple buying 7 Rafale would cost 500 m$ with 6 mica per plane +support and initial spares.With credit about 600 m€ on 12 yrs (state rate interest).So 50 m$ per year on 84 m$..

Also, what about trucks, C4ISR, night vision equipment, and all the other misc equipment that makes a modern military go?

I took that in account: I separated truck and I include C4ISR in infantry cost : 6000 € per man

To equip a man cost much less than 6000€. Those 6000 € include also night vision, radios, common light weapons like platoon AT rocket launchers and machine gun plus ammuntions.

Infrastructures are build at local price!

In conscript armies all these easy tasks are fulfilled by draftees of course.

Normally you took the most unfit for combat dratees after boot camp, to do those support tasks.

I took in account the normal ration of civilian for a draftee army who are at armed force headquarters (purchasing, HQ secretary and so on...)

CREF true decay rates for rocket propellants, MTBF for missiles especially MICA, training costs, airframe fatigue, etc.

When you get those true figures if you can, recompute your assumptions about COSTS. That new tally doesn't even count the costs for training in perishable maintenance as well as combat skills plus hardware and software upgrades plus at least a thousand things you never took into account just for RAFALEs not to mention the 1400 other line items a modern military uses.

Herald

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murabit821 6/13/2007 11:19:30 AM

Roman, I think you've gotten excellent advice in this thread already. I basically would just repeat what's been said (or at least those parts that I would have even thought of). I'd say Slovakia's air defense needs to be tailored with its presumed threat in mind. You specified Hungary and Slovenia as the threat. These threat forces are predominately 1) helicopters, and 2) jets that will need to deliver their ordnance from relatively low altitude. Therefore, I note first of all that you really don't have any pressing need for high-altitude air defense. However, since you have few fixed wing assets of your own, I think it still may be cost-effective and prudent to keep your S-300s around if possible as one of your few means of combatting high-altitude flyovers of your country, as well as being a very capable system against even low-flying jets. The primary need seems to be low to mid altitude air defense. If you weren't a NATO country I'd suggest things like 2S6, PANTsIR, and TOR, supplemented by a bunch of SA-18s spread throughout. However, I'm afraid I'm really not too conversant with what's available as the Blue equivalents of those systems, but some have been mentioned already. I really do not have a lot of wisdom to share, but if you want to e-mail me we can discuss it a bit more.

Slovakia have similar system to 2S6 called BRAMS http://forum.valka.cz/viewtopic.php/t/8808 (but without radar, only have opto electronic modul)
when this system be improve to ability fire 57E6-Ye , this will be solution
i think better have this than old SA-6
in mountains , valleys used radars from SA-6 is limited
only lowland in west and east

also we can buy russian systems from Russian debit to Slovakia
(Grecee as NATO state have Russian AD systems )

but this is about Slovakia

how you think about AD for our fictional country ?

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murabit821 6/13/2007 11:26:35 AM

with buying new equipment countires like Hungaria and Czech republic adopt leasings

when czechs buy JAS-39 thay buy this for leasing
contract cost 1,034 bilion usd for 14 fighters for 10 years
normal JAS -39 cost about 50mil usd , in this contract cost 74 mil usd average per fighter
advantage of this , Czech have fighters all 14 at one time and pay each year just about 100mil usd
leasing are good solution for small nations

I agree that leasing might be a better option, but this country has a TOTAL defense budget of only 144mil USD. There's no way it could even pay 50mil per year for 10 years for 7 Gripens and still afford to maintain and fly them, and pay for the rest of its military.

If anything, they should look at leasing some of the low-hour F-16As the US has in storage. These could be had at one point for ~$20 mil with MLU upgrade, IIRC.

But even so, I would still opt for SAMs. The more dispersed, the better. Buying 6 hangar toys just isn't practical, IMHO.

Besides, OPFOR air forces aren't exactly world beaters. Knocking down a few aircraft with MANPADs would push them up over 10-15k ft and force them to use PGMs to get any bombing accuracy (if they have any). It would also strictly limit the use of their helo squadrons.

Remember folks, the country we are talking about has the defense budget of Kyrgystan.

For reference, Kyrgystan has 48 Mig-21s (holdovers from the Soviet days - probably very few are flyable), 4 L-39s, a handful of transports and helos, and 12 SA-4s.

Their Army also has 24 ZSU-23s and 24 S-60s.

They can't even afford Mig-29s, let alone 4+ gen fighters like Gripen or Rafale.

The only way they could, IMHO, is through foreign military assistance.

are you sure that Kyrgistan have 144mil usd Military budget ?
what i know thay have 30mil usd budget

Military budget of our country is much close to Estonia or Armenia

yes Fighters are expensive
that we propose no Aircrafts (fighters , cargo ) for our fictional country
just Helicopters (cc 10-20)

AD just ZU-23, MANPADS in small numbers

but we are not decide at this moment

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murabit821 6/13/2007 12:18:41 PM

It is the maximum normal life duration for equipment with electronic refit at midlife.Ammunitions last 20 yrs mx

We assume that effort stay at least at this level and budget goes with inflation

For small nation, they buy a single batch on loans (like 10 years).I took credit interest in account.

For exemple buying 7 Rafale would cost 500 m$ with 6 mica per plane +support and initial spares.With credit about 600 m€ on 12 yrs (state rate interest).So 50 m$ per year on 84 m$..

Also, what about trucks, C4ISR, night vision equipment, and all the other misc equipment that makes a modern military go?

I took that in account: I separated truck and I include C4ISR in infantry cost : 6000 € per man

To equip a man cost much less than 6000€. Those 6000 € include also night vision, radios, common light weapons like platoon AT rocket launchers and machine gun plus ammuntions.

Infrastructures are build at local price!

In conscript armies all these easy tasks are fulfilled by draftees of course.

Normally you took the most unfit for combat dratees after boot camp, to do those support tasks.

I took in account the normal ration of civilian for a draftee army who are at armed force headquarters (purchasing, HQ secretary and so on...)

some armies dont have bullet proof vest for its soldiers

but you calculate this very well

my compliment

when we calculate equipment for profesional soldiers (two complet uniform , tactical vest , bag, helm, kevlar gloves , also ECWS ,but without weapons ) we calculate cost 1773 usd (price of items in our region)

when we calculate equipment for militia soldiers (list of items , derived from my experience as concricpt slodier, but with more qualited equipment ) we calculate cost 1089 usd

150 euro for Helmet is Cheap (we calculate about 300 euro (Czechs buy for this price , Slovakian buy new helmet for 400 euro

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B.Smitty 6/13/2007 1:54:57 PM

For small nation, they buy a single batch on loans (like 10 years).I took credit interest in account.

For exemple buying 7 Rafale would cost 500 m$ with 6 mica per plane +support and initial spares.With credit about 600 m€ on 12 yrs (state rate interest).So 50 m$ per year on 84 m$..

So for 12 years, 60% of your procurement budget (which I believe is already too high) will be spent buying 7 aircraft. Will the remaining 40% be spent buying that one Hawkeye? What about trainers? What about helos? Do your land forces and navy have to take a procurement holiday for 12 years to pay for a handful of shiny toys for the air force?

Infrastructures are build at local price!

Yes, but anything that requires foreign contractors like upgrading any electronics infrastructure, power, etc., will be at foreign rates. Does this country make it's own power generators? Power distribution hardware? Does it meet Western standards so you don't blow out your Rafale's supporting electronics and hardware? Do you have to upgrade your air traffic control systems to support talking to these aircraft? Do you have to integrate the IFF systems from these Russian SAMs and early warning radars with your Rafales and Hawkeyes so you don't inadvertently shoot down these massively expensive national assets?With only 7 aircraft, can you actually use them in anything short of a full-scale conflict? Or will they be too valuable to risk?

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B.Smitty 6/13/2007 2:09:58 PM

I went off the CIA World Factbook data that said it had a GDP of $10 billion USD and spent the equivalent of 1.4% of that GDP on the military.

If you were going to have aircraft, I would suggest either older aircraft like F-5s, Mig-21s, etc., or armed jet trainers like Hawks, L-39s, or AlphaJets. Or those F-16As in storage.

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Roman 6/13/2007 2:37:40 PM

To displacedjim: Thanks for your opinion. I was actually trying to ask about a minimal worthwhile air defense in a more theoretical sense, not for the Slovak situation specifically, but thanks anyway.

To B-Smitty: According to the CIA figures, Kyrgyzstan's nominal GDP is $2.24 billion and military spending accounts for 1.4% of the GDP, which amounts to $31.36 million. You confused nominal and PPP GDP (the latter is indeed $10.49 billion), but if you looked at the PPP GDP of the theoretical country it would also be much, much higher than the figure stated and so would the military budget. Still, your concerns about auxiliary spending to support the weapon systems is justified unless french_stratege factored it in already.

To french_stratege: Talking about infrastructure spending, which you set at 5% of the total budget - how much infrastructure do you think this could actually realistically provide? After all, you state the longest reasonable service life to be 32 years for equipment (which sounds reasonable with a mid-life upgrade) - what is the longest reasonable 'service life' of military buildings and other infrastructure? This is important to know to understand how much the total infrastructure budget could be accumulated over the years.

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Roman 6/13/2007 2:40:31 PM

In the minimal air defense system, would it be worthwhile to have dedicated 'observers' that would watch out for enemy aircraft? If so, how many would be necessary and how should they be organized?

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