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Subject: US vs China: nuclear war? - an impossibility
Iron Logician    1/17/2004 4:52:43 PM
A few reasons from a scientist point of view: 1) Regardless whether or not the US builds missile defense shield, China continues to build more missiles that carry neclear war head(s). China possesses more than half of the world's known rare earth mineral deposit containing both Lanthanide and Actinide Series (Pu and U in the latter). Mobile land and sub-based missiles will likely survive the first strike. It is unclear how many they have built (its first one was almost 40 years ago, then H-bomb, and neutron bombs) how many more they will build. China's economy if based on PPP (purchasing power parity) estimate is already many times bigger than ex-USSR. So it is safe to presume that it can at least easily make as many as ex-USSR in the coming years. 2) 10,000 nuclear explosions in China are NOT sufficient to vitrify the land owning to geological and geographical complications, eg, China has far more mountains than US. Theoretical calculation suggests that such vitrification process requires roughly 192,0000 explosions. However, the nuclear fall-out (ie, airborne radioactive particles) will drift acoss pacific ocean and deposit in the US mainland, destroying every live-stock on the way. Everyone knows why a balloon can drift from China to the US, not the other way around. 3) The most compelling reason, perhaps, is the fact that after the first strike, the remaining Chinese missiles will be launched towards all major US cities and industrial centers. Despite the missile defense shield, a certain % will pass, land, and explode. The impact of 9/11 was shocking to most in the world (eg, most Americans probably delayed their retirement for a few years!); one cannot imagine the impact of nuclear explosions. Western civilization values human life and prosperity far more than Eastern civilization, such an nuclear exchange will certainly result in the destruction of both civilizations or the return of the dark age for many years to come; nevertheless, the rich or haves have much more to lose than the poor or have-nots. The US or American people is highly unlikely to take such risk of a certain known outcome. Good life is just too important.
 
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elcid    Reply to Zhangfei   2/22/2004 8:41:33 AM
First, your history is correct. I don't think your assertion that the Chinese are worse than others will hold up - witness European "Christian" behaviors at least as bad, but every event you cited is true.
 
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elcid    Chinese nuclear policy   2/22/2004 8:47:23 AM
Zhangfei: You are quite wrong about PRC attitudes and the probabilities of use of nuclear weapons. The strategic cause of the decision to go for them, made in 1955, was US threats to bomb Chinese cities during the Korean War and the immediately following Taiwan Straits Crisis of 1954. [See China Builds the Bomb] The motive was deterrent, and the PRC system is possibly safer than any other nuclear force in the world. China does not arm its nuclear missiles, but keeps custody in a different agency than has the missiles (mainly the Second Artillery, but also a single SSBN, which lives ashore, not at sea). IF China is attacked by nuclear weapons, there is no nonsense about an instant reply - they ride it out - no choice. AFTER that orders and warheads are delivered. The numbers of missiles is larger than we have been told - because we count launchers and PRC builds several rounds per launcher - but it is not large. Theoretical discussion of a new generation of nuclear weapons in PRC literature remains that, probably due to cost considerations. For example, the idea of nuclear EMP to blind Taiwan radar is being implemented by a non-nuclear weapon, less expensive, less dangerous to the world situation.
 
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elcid    American nuclear policy   2/22/2004 8:57:02 AM
I have no big problem citing Hiroshima and Nagasaki as signs America has low standards of humanity. Both were illegal by the law we used to execute Japanese and Germans in the war crimes tribunals! [We even charged Germans with the bombing of Rotterdam, with what, 600 deaths? It was a crime because they deliberately targeted civilians. So did we. So do we still whenever we target a city with a hydrogen bomb.] A number of American general officers (including Eisenhauer) believed the use was not justified, because Japan was substantially defeated. The US Strategic Bombing Survey (Far East) officially concludes the war would have ended by November without an invasion (assuming, I guess, that Russia would not have invaded alone). The worst bombings of the war were not, in fact, by atom bombs, but by firebombs, causing firestorms. The record is the great Tokyo raid, and the death tole is unknowable, as records were destroyed. But an American demographer studied the population of Tokyo before and after the raid, and the number of people showing up in adjacent districts, and concludes the total exceeds both atom bombings combined, probably by a great deal. This was also a violation of US Joint Chiefs of Staff orders, but the Pacific Air Force did it anyway. War crimes tribunals were NOT given jurisdiction over ALLIED war crimes, not wanting to account for Hamburg, Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, the killing of Japanese soldiers who surrendered, etc.
 
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Final Historian    RE:American nuclear policy   2/22/2004 1:00:12 PM
History is written by the victor's, and guilt decided by them as well.
 
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elcid    China's nuclear armed missile forces & hydrogen bombs   2/29/2004 3:04:13 PM
Standard international missile counts are based on launchers. For this reason, the PRC ICBM force looks smaller than it is: they plan to use any serviceable launcher over and over again. Missile units have multiple reloads on transporters, stored mainly in tunnels. On the other hand, medium and short range missiles which once were nuclear armed have converted to precision guided conventional rounds (for use against Taiwan). The PRC does not lack for precision guidance: they hit the center of aiming boxes as near as USN radar can measure. But the probably do have limited tritium production, so as ICBM numbers went up, they probably removed warheads from shorter ranged missiles to give them to the ICBMs.
 
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The Novice    RE:American nuclear policy   2/29/2004 6:10:15 PM
"History is written by the victor's, and guilt decided by them as well" "Vae victis" -Brennus 390 B.C. Translation: They started it! Nyah n nyah n nyah nyah.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan    Patriot   3/2/2004 7:24:33 AM
"I'd rather U.S. and China not fight and all, but rather U.S. combine forces with China to kill all those Muslim fundamentalists." What an intellectual comment, know wonder you live in fear at Berkely. Did it ever occur to you that the Muslims in western China are potentially good allies of ours, in fact China has hinted that US troops offer hand-to-hand and small arms training to Uyghyur rebels posing as Afgan soldiers (of course the Afgans know it and allow it as they are ethnically related). Maybe this "conservative view" is one reason people want to fly airplanes into the US..still. You'd think some people would learn, especially in college.
 
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elcid    Nuclear war not what it used to be   3/2/2004 4:33:34 PM
It is quite likely that a nuclear war in a third world situation will be nothing like what a Cold War era confrontation between superpowers might have been. China has stated explicitly that it will use nuclear weapons (particularly the neutron bomb) if the USA sends carriers to a Taiwan conflict. The intent, apparently, is to disable the crew, rather than sink the ship. Other literature indicates they might use EMP effects to blind Taiwan radars, and it appears they don't consider that using nuclear weapons on Taiwan (Chinese) people. Uses of a tactical sort, at sea, at distance from population centers, are not directly going to cause massive civilian casualties. [In fairness to PRC, they got the ideas for neutron bombs and EMP effects from US programs, and deployments during the 1991 Gulf War, according to a Chinese general]. More ominously, there have been veiled threats against Los Angelus if we fight over Taiwan. To discourage that, PRC generals were invited to Omaha to visit US Strike Command generals.
 
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sooner    RE:US vs China: nuclear war? - an impossibility   3/7/2004 11:23:02 AM
Too unlikely. You comment on the China bombs reaching the US soil. What about the American bombs. Irrelavent? It would be suicide either way. Oh, and don't underestimate America's nuclear shield.
 
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sooner    RE:Patriot   3/7/2004 12:39:03 PM
You have it all figured out, huh. You seem to have, at hand, some very sensative intelligence. Are you in the government or did you make all of that crap up?
 
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