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Subject: Chinese navy floats three carrier plan
Zhang Fei    1/8/2008 1:22:24 PM
At least according to Russell Hsiao, an editor at the Jamestown Foundation's China Briefing: (Quote) On December 31, a Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Pao cited a report that no one in the Western media has detected concerning a Jane's Defence Weekly article which reported that China has plans to develop three-carrier battle groups over the next decade. News about this development has been widely discussed in the Hong Kong and Taiwanese press. Citing Jane's, Wen Wai Pao reported that as a part of its carrier battle group plans the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) intends to establish an even stronger submarine fleet; having added 20 nuclear-powered submarines in the past five years, increasing the total number of submarines to 55. The report indicated that the PLAN currently has 70 destroyers and frigates, 50 dock-landing ships and 45 coastal warships. Taiwanese news sources highlighted Gordon Jacobs, a Chinese military analyst based in the United States - whose report on the modernization of China's navy in the Jane's report was one of the sources for the report - as stating that if the Chinese government contracted for the construction of the carrier groups in 2006, then it is possible for the first battle carrier group to break water as early as 2011, be in service in 2014, and by 2016 be accompanied by a second service-ready aircraft carrier group. Jacobs cited Chen Yung-kang, an official in Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, who during a presentation at a defense conference held in Taiwan in 2006 argued that Taiwan needed submarines to strengthen its defense capability against China's quickly expanding naval power and its plan to develop two battle carrier groups by 2020. Chen added that the Soviet-made Varyag Carrier was being upgraded and repaired at Dalian in Northeastern China, and being prepared for training use. The Chinese government is still tight-lipped about its plans for the former Soviet aircraft carrier which is now dry docked in Dalian and painted in standard PLAN gray. Taiwanese experts believe that the PLAN intends to activate the carrier as a part of its three-carrier battle group plan. In 2007, Chinese government sources admitted for the first time that Beijing is researching and capable of building an aircraft carrier, as stated by Huang Qiang, a spokesman for the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense of China (CSTIND). Furthermore, Zhang Yunchuan, the CSTIND chairman, said last March that China was indeed researching the building of aircraft carriers: "China stands for strategic active defense and, even when it owns aircraft carriers, it will definitely not intrude into or occupy any other nation or resort to force with the use of carrier vessels," Zhang said. On December 4, 2007, during a meeting with a visiting US delegation headed by US Representative Eni Faleomavaega, chairman of the sub-committee on Asia, The Pacific, and the Global Environment in the US House of Representatives, Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian asserted that China was planning to design an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) within the Taiwan Strait. Chen alleged that Beijing planned to submit the proposal to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and at the same time, Beijing planned to inaugurate a new air route on the Chinese side of the median of the Taiwan Straits. According to Joseph Wu - Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the United States - in early December, the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China issued a press release stating that the Central Military Commission and the State Council had approved the route and flights would run some 4.2 nautical miles (7.8 kilometers) west of the centerline. The Taiwanese government claims that since approval for the bid had to be attained from the Central Military Commission, which has authority over China's civilian aviation and airspace, China's bid to the ICAO to operate on Taiwan's side of the strait can be construed as a militarily provocative move, as it also gives them the ability to deny access to foreign aircraft in the area. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gang repeatedly denied any knowledge of China's plan to establish an ADIZ within the Taiwan Strait. In related news, citing Taiwanese military sources that Japanese government sources later confirmed, Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun revealed that Chinese Hong-6 bombers from the Huaining air force base in Anhui province conducted military maneuvers in areas of the East China Sea in September 2007, the route covered areas that are jointly enclosed by the Taiwan Strait Air Defense Identification Zone and the Japan Air Defense Identification Zone. The Hong-6 bombers reportedly made 20 sorties to the area on September 11 and 23, which forced Japanese F4 fighter jets based at Naha base in Okinawa Prefecture to respond by conducting a total of 12 sorties along the routes. In an interview with Kensu
 
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warpig       4/28/2009 8:00:43 AM
No, it didn't sail out, but yes it was moved on Sunday.  Shi Lang was pushed out of Dalian Old Shipyard by tugboats (and so high in the water you could see her rudder), and pushed over to Dalian New Shipyard 3km to the west where it is now pierside.  It looks like there are a couple large cranes there, so maybe they're lifting some heavy machinery aboard.
 
 
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warpig       4/28/2009 1:10:03 PM
What I said above is correct, except for that it is actually in a drydock.  Apparently GoogleEarth is lagging behind reality yet again, and what looks like wharfs on GoogleEarth have been changed somewhat.
 
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FJV       4/28/2009 3:13:33 PM
They would need a good carrier design 1st.
 
I'm wondering how many you carriers need to build to become good at it.
 
 
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       4/28/2009 5:00:35 PM
I wonder whatever happened to the alleged helicopter carriers sitting in enclosed docks at the north end of the Huang Pu river?  The PLAN could claim "mission accomplished" with some of those and they don't need to be nearly as big or well built as a carrier for warplanes and could take on missions around SK, Vietnam and Taiwan while still under the PLAAF umbrella.
 
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Phaid       4/28/2009 5:13:28 PM
Apparently Jane's, East Asia Intel dot com, and most of the respectable China forums are all loonies then.  Shi Lang (with that presentation) has a listing in the Current Jane's Fighting Ships - and is estimated to be completed in (gasp) 2008 - and operational for flying in 2010.
 
I see that prediction worked out well.
 
 
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warpig       4/28/2009 7:51:20 PM
What's even funnier is that Sid (Elcid/BSD) was still sticking to a close variation of that timeline as recently as several months ago.  In fact, his ego still finds a way to assert that he was somehow correct in his estimations regarding this ship (mainly by selectively remembering parts of some of his predictions and forgetting all the more inconvenient errors in-between), because just today he said this:  "I wish all those who insisted this ship would never be put in service - that it was just for study - and gave me years of flak on Strategypage (and other sites) - could comment now."  Any comment?
 
 
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warpig       4/28/2009 8:07:24 PM

I wonder whatever happened to the alleged helicopter carriers sitting in enclosed docks at the north end of the Huang Pu river?  The PLAN could claim "mission accomplished" with some of those and they don't need to be nearly as big or well built as a carrier for warplanes and could take on missions around SK, Vietnam and Taiwan while still under the PLAAF umbrella.

 

Can you be more specific on the location?  I'd like to look at it in Google, even though I know the picture will undoubtedly be a few years old.

Being able to operate some helicopters does not an "aircraft carrier" make... except in the mind of someone with a serious inferiority complex (and I don't mean you, Nanhe).  The ship launched so far was a Type 071 amphibious assault ship, and they apparently have a couple more under construction.  There's also the Type 081 amphibious assault ship under construction that apparently will be more like an LPH with a full-length flight deck and able to operate with quite a few helicopters (like maybe 10?)  Once again, not an aircraft carrier except in the eyes of someone desparate to make worst-case assessments of everything Chinese, to the point of exaggeration and delusion.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       4/29/2009 12:48:34 PM



I wonder whatever happened to the alleged helicopter carriers sitting in enclosed docks at the north end of the Huang Pu river?  The PLAN could claim "mission accomplished" with some of those and they don't need to be nearly as big or well built as a carrier for warplanes and could take on missions around SK, Vietnam and Taiwan while still under the PLAAF umbrella.
Can you be more specific on the location?  I'd like to look at it in Google, even though I know the picture will undoubtedly be a few years old.



Being able to operate some helicopters does not an "aircraft carrier" make... except in the mind of someone with a serious inferiority complex (and I don't mean you, Nanhe).  The ship launched so far was a Type 071 amphibious assault ship, and they apparently have a couple more under construction.  There's also the Type 081 amphibious assault ship under construction that apparently will be more like an LPH with a full-length flight deck and able to operate with quite a few helicopters (like maybe 10?)  Once again, not an aircraft carrier except in the eyes of someone desparate to make worst-case assessments of everything Chinese, to the point of exaggeration and delusion.



The yards are north of the northernmost bridge on the Huang Pu, on the eastern side of the river.  They are covered as well and also not that old, so they may not be on google maps (for political reasons).
 
 
Looking at the pics of the Viagra, if she is going into dry dock, and seeing as how the Chinese will throw any amount of money and manpower at a problem they deem worthy, how feasible is it to open up the bottom of the ship and put in some gas turbine engines?   That ship sat at portside for quite a while, I could imagine the Chinese did the simulations and Lenovo does have computers capable of simulating nuke explosions, so on paper they may believe they could rebuild the necessary section of hull.
 
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xylene       5/5/2009 8:35:32 PM
Just a thought, but maybe the Chinese view the role of carrier differently than we do. We view the carrier hardy well build well engineered ship to be reused many times with a lifespan of 30 to 50 years. Maybe they view the carrier in more simplistic terms. Meaning it is a ship meant to deploy planes , once the attack planes are deployed the carrier has accomplished it's mission. If it survives the engagement, that's good, but if it doesn't it doesn't matter as long as the planes were launched at the enemy. If that is their view then they don't need a ship to Nimitz standard.
 
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Zhang Fei       5/5/2009 8:45:43 PM
Meaning it is a ship meant to deploy planes , once the attack planes are deployed the carrier has accomplished it's mission. If it survives the engagement, that's good, but if it doesn't it doesn't matter as long as the planes were launched at the enemy.

I don't think there is a single navy in the world that can afford to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in planes and dozens of trained carrier pilots in one go. Modern airplanes and the pilots to go with them don't grow on trees. If they want disposable projectiles, they're better off with ballistic and cruise missiles, which don't require a massive logistical tail.
 
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