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Subject: massive china unemployment in one year
Nanheyangrouchuan    7/18/2007 12:56:09 PM
For a little background, Chris Devonshire-Ellis is a truly "old china hand" but alot more well-adjusted and realistic than most of the hardened old timers there. His tax and accounting consultancy business started in China but is expanding to India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. He is one old hand worth keeping up with: His comment regarding "de-sinofication" of western outsourcing: http://www.chinalawblog.com/2007/07/china_products_forget_trust_ju.html#comments Well NHYRC, I think that may well occur. I can see definate signs that buyers are going elsewhere - India for sure, Vietnam. The reasons are many and varied but also to do with the on-going and irritating quality of the Chinese manufacturer to constantly provide inconsistant service, English-language communication difficulties, the on-going mood of the Chinese Govt to avoid a trade war with the US at all costs, and the fact that Washington seeks to strengthen it's ties with other nations (India especially). It's an Asian buying market now, not a Chinese one. 12 months and the Yuan will start to fall, growth will level out to 6% per annum and the first Chinese bankrupties will start to rear their heads. And that includes over-stated listed companies on the HKSE, Nasdaq and elsewhere. Chinese manufacturing is about to get a shock: Regional Competition is heating up. I've just had sixteen FIE's in South China tell us they are considering relocating to Chennai, and thats the tip of the iceberg. Posted by: Chris Devonshire-Ellis | July 18, 2007 12:22 AM
 
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Herc the Merc    Passto   7/22/2007 4:55:08 AM

Economics is not my thing, but I would have to question India taking over. From what little I know of Indian society, they have just as many issues as PRC may have. I don't doubt that countries like India and Vietnam (and I'm guessing here: Thailand, Eastern Europe/Soviet/Russia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, etc..) can do the cheap labor job (I believe they already are for some things) and could very well seize on opportunities. And I don't doubt that PRC may/will suffer economically due to self-inflicted causes (poor quality, not much oversight). But I don't see how India will completely uproot China in whatever it does. Somebody educate me

That said, theoretically, I guess the easiest way to solve all problems is to make robots that do cheap labor. One can dream . . . . . . . . .

But I don't see how India will completely uproot China in whatever it does. Somebody educate me ----
All the usual anti-china suspects are going to channel their energy with Indian yogis to this effect -if it doesn't work Hollywood's X-men will be summoned. OHm!!
 
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Zhang Fei       7/22/2007 12:55:16 PM

Economics is not my thing, but I would have to question India taking over. From what little I know of Indian society, they have just as many issues as PRC may have. I don't doubt that countries like India and Vietnam (and I'm guessing here: Thailand, Eastern Europe/Soviet/Russia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, etc..) can do the cheap labor job (I believe they already are for some things) and could very well seize on opportunities. And I don't doubt that PRC may/will suffer economically due to self-inflicted causes (poor quality, not much oversight). But I don't see how India will completely uproot China in whatever it does. Somebody educate me

That said, theoretically, I guess the easiest way to solve all problems is to make robots that do cheap labor. One can dream . . . . . . . . .
India  has *more* issues with foreign investment than China. Note that no large foreign retailer has a presence in India, whereas both Walmart and Carrefour have around 100 stores in China. Taiwanese, Hong Kong and Japanese retailers are also present in China. India's problems are, like China's, self-inflicted. The problem for India is that it has been unable to get away from the mentality that the Indian market exists to prop up the wealth of its rich industrialists - better a few dozen rich Indian oligopolists and a billion poor people than fewer rich Indian oligopolists and hundreds of millions of moderately well-off Indians. China has a similar mentality, but has been able to suppress it more effectively than India. India will only progress to the extent that it opens up its market to new entrants (foreign and domestic) and demolishes both the license raj and the bothersome regulations that have kept domestic firms fat, happy and non-competitive on the international markets.
 
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Joe Cipriani    Pants on Fire   5/4/2008 1:59:19 AM

For a little background, Chris Devonshire-Ellis is a truly "old china hand" but alot more well-adjusted and realistic than most of the hardened old timers there. His tax and accounting consultancy business started in China but is expanding to India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc.

He is one old hand worth keeping up with: >

His comment regarding "de-sinofication" of western outsourcing:
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2007/07/china_products_forget_trust_ju.html#comments" target=_blank href_cetemp="
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2007/07/china_products_forget_trust_ju.html#comments">link

Well NHYRC, I think that may well occur. I can see definate signs that buyers are going elsewhere - India for sure, Vietnam. The reasons are many and varied but also to do with the on-going and irritating quality of the Chinese manufacturer to constantly provide inconsistant service, English-language communication difficulties, the on-going mood of the Chinese Govt to avoid a trade war with the US at all costs, and the fact that Washington seeks to strengthen it's ties with other nations (India especially). It's an Asian buying market now, not a Chinese one. 12 months and the Yuan will start to fall, growth will level out to 6% per annum and the first Chinese bankrupties will start to rear their heads. And that includes over-stated listed companies on the HKSE, Nasdaq and elsewhere. Chinese manufacturing is about to get a shock: Regional Competition is heating up. I've just had sixteen FIE's in South China tell us they are considering relocating to Chennai, and thats the tip of the iceberg.
Posted by: Chris Devonshire-Ellis | July 18, 2007 12:22 AM
When choosing news sources amongst the multitude of those who think they've found the Holy Grail, I look at the source's integrity first and business acumen second.  Chris Devonshire Ellis has neither.
Dezan Shira & Associates is nothing more than a shell company floundering in financial ruin waiting to be put out of its misery by the bankruptcy fairy.  Reputable Fortune 500 companies wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole and, in fact, laugh at the mention of the name Dezan Shira.
 
Integrity?  Perhaps you have a different definition of the word than most others, but little integrity can be found when one claims to all in the multitude of forum spams he posts that he is a lawyer.  He is not.  Never has been.  Never will be one until he at least finishes high school.
 
How much integrity is shown by someone who claims to be a lawyer graduated from the University of London after said university issues a Cease & Desist Letter when their files show he never earned even one credit at their university?
 
With such an obvious lack of integrity, taking his business advice seeme to be the absolute last thing common sense indicates.


 
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       5/4/2008 7:14:19 PM



For a little background, Chris Devonshire-Ellis is a truly "old china hand" but alot more well-adjusted and realistic than most of the hardened old timers there. His tax and accounting consultancy business started in China but is expanding to India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc.

He is one old hand worth keeping up with: >

His comment regarding "de-sinofication" of western outsourcing:
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2007/07/china_products_forget_trust_ju.html#comments"" target="_blank">link target=_blank href_cetemp="
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2007/07/china_products_forget_trust_ju.html#comments">link" target="_blank">link

Well NHYRC, I think that may well occur. I can see definate signs that buyers are going elsewhere - India for sure, Vietnam. The reasons are many and varied but also to do with the on-going and irritating quality of the Chinese manufacturer to constantly provide inconsistant service, English-language communication difficulties, the on-going mood of the Chinese Govt to avoid a trade war with the US at all costs, and the fact that Washington seeks to strengthen it's ties with other nations (India especially). It's an Asian buying market now, not a Chinese one. 12 months and the Yuan will start to fall, growth will level out to 6% per annum and the first Chinese bankrupties will start to rear their heads. And that includes over-stated listed companies on the HKSE, Nasdaq and elsewhere. Chinese manufacturing is about to get a shock: Regional Competition is heating up. I've just had sixteen FIE's in South China tell us they are considering relocating to Chennai, and thats the tip of the iceberg.
Posted by: Chris Devonshire-Ellis | July 18, 2007 12:22 AM

When choosing news sources amongst the multitude of those who think they've found the Holy Grail, I look at the source's integrity first and business acumen second.  Chris Devonshire Ellis has neither.

Dezan Shira & Associates is nothing more than a shell company floundering in financial ruin waiting to be put out of its misery by the bankruptcy fairy.  Reputable Fortune 500 companies wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole and, in fact, laugh at the mention of the name Dezan Shira.

 

Integrity?  Perhaps you have a different definition of the word than most others, but little integrity can be found when one claims to all in the multitude of forum spams he posts that he is a lawyer.  He is not.  Never has been.  Never will be one until he at least finishes high school.

 

How much integrity is shown by someone who claims to be a lawyer graduated from the University of London after said university issues a Cease & Desist Letter when their files show he never earned even one credit at their university?

 

With such an obvious lack of integrity, taking his business advice seeme to be the absolute last thing common sense indicates.



 



Integrity?  That's a pretty flexible word in the China consulting biz.  Certainly he has been more successful than most and many, many consultants are on the razors edge between insolvency and profitability. 


We could get into many businesses who advise people on legal matters in China who live in the US and may not even be practicing lawyers.  Or the entire financial services biz over there which revolves around dodging taxes from back home.
 
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FJV    China has enough problems already   5/5/2008 1:05:51 PM
In a few decades time China will have problems taking care of it's aging population.
Also there are potential banking problems which can make the subprime crisis look like peanuts.
Then there are subsidies of food in China due to the rising food prices.
Etc, etc.



 
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