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Subject: Haqquani Network, Kurram Shiite Elders, Pakistan, Obama's Setting A Withdrawal Date
CJH    11/27/2010 12:02:43 PM
Shiite deal gives militants new Afghan access Is there a seeming Iran/Taliban/Pakistan nexus here? "While Kurram's Sunnis have come under Taliban sway, its Shiites have come under the influence of two local militias called Hezbollah and the Mehdi militia — unrelated to the militant groups of the same name in Lebanon and Iraq, respectively — Bangash said. 'The Shiites are held hostage to the Hezbollah and Mehdi militias, like the Sunnis are held hostage to the Taliban,' said Bangash." Wikipedia:Haqquani Network,Links With Pakistan Note the ISI senior official's characterization of the network's leader as a Pakistani asset. Notice the Pakistani justification on the basis of an anticipated NATO (US) withdrawal from Afghanistan. "The network maintains old links with Inter-Services Intelligence and Osama bin Laden and Pakistan's army has been reluctant to move against them.[2] In 2006 Jalaluddin was called a 'Pakistani asset' by a senior official of Inter-Services Intelligence.[13] Pakistan regards the Haqqani's as an important force for protecting its interests in Afghanistan in the event of American withdrawal from there and therefore have been unwilling to move against them.[13] The New York Times reported in June 2010 that Pakistan's Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and chief of the ISI General Ahmad Shuja Pasha were in talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai as they were convinced the US could not succeed in Afghanistan.[14] They were trying to broker a power sharing deal between the Afghan government and the network after US forces withdraw from Afghanistan.[15] Reacting to this report both Barack Obama and CIA director Leon Panetta responded with skepticism that such an effort could succeed.[16] The effort to mediate between the Haqqanis and the Afghan government was launched by Pakistan after intense pressure by the US to take military action against the group in North Waziristan.[17] Hamid Karzai later denied meeting anyone from the Haqqani network.[18] Subsequently Kayani also denied that he took part in these talks.[19]"
 
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CJH       11/27/2010 12:22:56 PM
From above - "The New York Times reported in June 2010 that Pakistan's Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and chief of the ISI General Ahmad Shuja Pasha were in talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai as they were convinced the US could not succeed in Afghanistan.[14] ".
 
We're wondering if, not only can the Pakistani's control their extremists, but also whether they can avoid being a totally failed state and meanwhile they are assuming we won't be effective in Afghanistan. These observations aren't such as to build confidence.
 
We may as well include Karzai in the pool of NATO doubters. Obama's unreliability must have him hedging his bets all over the place.
 
Obama really sabotaged the effort in Afghanistan by setting a schedule for withdrawal. He may believe he can retrieve that by flip-flopping but it looks as if the resulting loss of his credibility is taking control of events.
 
When Bush was president everyone knew we were focused on an eventual closure in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that Obama is in, Aghanistan looks like a chess game in which our forces and the Afghans are pawns.
 
 
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