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Subject: Could the US secretly intervene on Taiwan's behalf during a war?
Clouded Leopard    9/14/2012 7:57:23 PM
This is something I've been theorizing about of late: The United States might be plausibly able to conduct a war of secret intervention on, say, Taiwan's behalf, should Taiwan be attacked by China. In public, the US would announce its neutrality and intention to stay out of the conflict, but in secret, the US would have one or two submarines selectively sinking some of the most important Chinese warships, and have stealth aircraft strike a few of the most important Chinese targets - all in a way that would cause the Chinese to believe that it was the doing of the Taiwanese. The United States would never hit or strike China in a way that the Taiwanese were themselves not capable of (Taiwan has its own cruise missiles and so forth.) The United States would not conduct B-2 strike deep into the heart of China, for instance, because that's something Taiwan is not capable of doing, and to do so would give away the fact that some nation other than Taiwan is fighting against China as well. By the use of such strategy, the United States could conceivably get the best of both worlds: It could maintain somewhat neutral relations with China, an important trading partner, while still thwarting the Chinese attack of a US ally. In theory, stealth allows the element of anonymity and plausible deniability. But that's all in theory.
 
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Reactive       9/14/2012 9:23:25 PM
It's not plausible imv, concealing US involvement would be much harder than you suspect even if strictly limited (in which case it would make little difference anyway) limited involvement would carry the same risk of escalation but with far less of a deterrent effect and severely limited effectiveness. The only reason the ROC exists today is because of the USA's commitment to defend it, declaring neutrality would cause the conflict in the first place and then place the US in a position where it was powerless (given tacit involvement) to significantly affect the outcome. 
 
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