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Subject: Boeing unveils F/A-XX, the next Hornet
SlowMan    7/12/2009 11:39:48 AM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DfbUPDqtPVI/SgIIwChw8-I/AAAAAAAABKQ/CMRH_QhG-m8/s1600/faxxNavy.jpg" width="440" height="202" />
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/FAXX%20slide%20Boeing%20July%202009.JPG" width="3072" height="2304" />
 
F/A-XX for the US Navy is a proposed further development of Boeing's proposal for KFX(Which currently looks like F/A-XX but with conventional wing and tail setup for air superiority missions). F/A-XX and KFX share basic airframe structure, but have different wings and avionics.
 
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Herald12345     A couple of things.....   7/13/2009 4:12:17 AM
1. Next time, just link the picture site instead of show it. If you notice, an improperly sized picture screws up the page.
2. I don't know who drew that concept picture up, but the wing as shown is WRONG.
 
Herald
 
 
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SlowMan       7/13/2009 9:28:31 AM
@ Rufus

> Reports huh?  Got a copy handy?

< http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/05/205_44789.html >

> It is with disturbing regularity that I am forced to remind certain posters on this message board that making things up is simply not going to do them any good.

You think they are made up because you are not aware of them. I am not responsible for your lack of awareness of events developing around the planet.

> Boeing would love to be involved in some kind of credible 5th or 6th generation fighter design project, but as of right now all they are showing off are extremely preliminary design studies.

You cannot sign a consulting/co-development contract for a new fighter based on preliminary studies.

> Sort of a "these are the sorts of things we think we could build depending on certain technological assumptions."

No, what Korean DoD is doing is to build two hypothetical fighter configurations on CATIA, then find out what they could handle themselves(approximately 75% of aircraft according to last estimate) and what they need external help on. Those areas needing help are then farmed out to an outside contractor, Boeing in this case. KFX is not a license-production program of an existing aircraft; it is a co-development project of a brand-new aircraft. This project  would give Boeing a competitive new aircraft platform to build its future product on past Super Hornet and Strike Eagle into 2010s and 2020s.

> Even if some customer showed up at Boeing's front door with a set or requirements and a dump-truck of money tomorrow morning, any new aircraft would require at least a decade of work before it was available to do something useful.

Exactly, Korean DoD has been working on it since 2002.

@ Herald12345

> 2. I don't know who drew that concept picture up, but the wing as shown is WRONG.

Well, that picture came from Boeing's F/A-XX presentation slide, so it must have been drawn up by Boeing.
 
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Herald12345    SARCASM   7/13/2009 10:08:29 AM
Stephen Trimble us a fairly good blogger but even he lnows the dofference between a sexy advertising brochire and actual engineering as he says in his DEWLINE blog where you lifted that piece of nonsense.
 
As for your so called report, it is the same sort of generic news release U've seen floated by the RoK for the last two years concerning their follow on tactical aviation. They arte in negotiation with various aerospace companies for technology share and for this or that to build their "stealth this" or "semi-stealth" that.  Like that Boeing picture it is MEANINGLESS as in NOISE.
 
Until you see actual RFIs and tenders circulate in the professional journals you are just seeing meaningless drivel-sort of like Thales, or Dassault when they announce a sales rumor in the press.
 
Herald 
 
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SlowMan       7/13/2009 11:56:32 AM
@ Herald12345

> They arte in negotiation with various aerospace companies for technology share

And close to a formal deal.

> and for this or that to build their "stealth this" or "semi-stealth" that.

It is a kind of Honne and Tatemae thing at work here, although Koreans are not as good as Japanese in doing this. Internally, it has all aspect(except for the rear) stealth and is referred as fully 5th-gen internally. Externally, they downgrade figures and claim it's just an upgraded old Super Hornet in order not to alert their neighbors. Of course, Asians don't fool each other, the only people that are fooled are casual western observers.

This is why Japan insists their Hyuga-class helicopter carriers are just "destroyers" and why Korea gives out empty weight(No weapon, no fuel, no personnel, not even life boat) for their "destroyers" that's heavier and more heavily armed than American Tico cruisers when loaded.
 
There is an all-out arms race going on in East Asia, where no one trusts the other and have historical "scores" to settle. 
 
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Rufus       7/13/2009 1:19:16 PM
"You think they are made up because you are not aware of them. I am not responsible for your lack of awareness of events developing around the planet."
 
The report you linked to says nothing about Boeing being "close to landing" the deal.
 
The report you linked to also clearly described a late 4th generation aircraft, not a 5th generation aircraft.
 
The report you linked to also clearly explained that what the Koreans are currently doing is developing requirements and performing feasibility studies.  This is not "development."  Those are preliminary steps that are performed as a prospective customer tries to define what it is looking for so that design work, if necessary, can begin.
 
Finally, the report makes it clear there is very little chance of Korea even attempting a 5th generation design for cost and technological reasons.
 
 
It is obvious that you have no idea what is required to develop a 5th generation fighter design.  Even for an experienced world-class aircraft manufacturer with access to previous 5th generation design experience, launching a new 5th generation design is a massive undertaking.  Projects of this type require a decade or more work after requirements are finalized and many billions of dollars for development alone.  (And no, design studies and feasibility studies do not count as "development.") 
 
The US ATF program began in 1981, it wasn't until 1991 that the YF-22 was selected.  The first test flight of an actual F-22 was not until fall of 1997, and the first operational aircraft wasn't delivered to the airforce until 2003. The first squadron of F-22s was declared fully operational in Dec 2007. 
 
Think about that for a bit.  That is a little over 25 years from program start until the first squadron was actually operational.  It took 6 years to begin flight testing the first actual F-22 after the YF-22 won the fly-off.  It took another six years of testing before the first F-22 was delivered to the airforce, and it took another 4 years before there was a fully operational squadron available. 
 
The JAST program began in 1993 with the merger of some earlier efforts.  In 1995 the UK formally joined the program. The development contract for the X-32 and X-35 was signed in 1996.(and the program became the JSF) The X-32 and X-35 didn't fly until 2000. In 2001 the X-35 was selected as the basis for the F-35 and work proceeded.  The first test aircraft, AA-1, didn't fly until Dec 2006 but this aircraft was not representative of a production F-35.  The first actual production representative aircraft AF-1 is scheduled to fly for the first time this summer.  If all goes as planned, the first F-35s will be flying with the Marines and Airforce in the 2012-2013 timeframe.
 
Once again, It took five years to select the X-35 AFTER the first development contract was signed.  Once the X-35 was selected it took another five years before the first (non-production representaive) F-35 prototype flew.  The first production representative F-35 isn't expected to fly until this year, 8 years after the X-35 was selected.  IOC is not expected until 11-12 years after the selection of the X-35, and roughly 20 years after the program began. 
 
Now, you could argue that that thanks to advancing technology, experience with 5th generation designs, and a streamlined design process, a new 5th generation designed by Boeing or Lockheed  wouldn't take 20 years, but there is simply no way it would take less than 10 years, and that is if the program is well funded and doesn't run into any major issues.
 
So yes, hypothetically if the Koreans knew what they wanted, and approached Boeing with a pile of money tomorrow morning(with an actual signed multi-billion dollar contract)... you would expect to see an early prototype aircraft flying in maybe 5 years, with the first actual production aircraft entering testing several years after that.   If all went well the Koreans could expect to receive their first new aircraft in a little over ten years.
 
However, as your article made clear... the Koreans are still trying to define their requirements, and are probably not even shooting for a 5th generation fighter anyways.
 

 
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SlowMan       7/13/2009 3:16:01 PM
@ Rufus

> The report you linked to says nothing about Boeing being "close to landing" the deal.

That was in March.
 
> The report you linked to also clearly described a late 4th generation aircraft, not a 5th generation aircraft.

< http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_Aerospace_Industries_KFX >

See also Comparable aircraft

    * F-22 Raptor
    * F-35 Lightning II
    * J-XX series
    * Mitsubishi ATD-X
    * Sukhoi PAK FA

> The report you linked to also clearly explained that what the Koreans are currently doing is developing requirements and performing feasibility studies.

< http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/06/content_10958851.htm > Indonesia signed up for KFX.

Indonesian KFX deal back in March 2009 announcement caught everyone off-guard, but it meant the project had advanced to the point where they could now make a sales pitch to interested foreign governments for participation behind closed doors. But this also raised the question of how Koreans would be able to sell KFX to Indonesians(most likely as a kit or license production), because of the engine sourcing problem(KFX is planned to be powered by two F414 EDE+ and it is unlikely the US government would grant permission to sell this engine to Indonesia) and how Korean DoD plans to get around this problem is currently unknown.

> Finally, the report makes it clear there is very little chance of Korea even attempting a 5th generation design for cost and technological reasons.

They are quoting an independent audit of economic benefits conducted in 2007 required for all major government projects. That report was overruled because this was a matter of national security, and project is now a definite go.
 
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Rufus       7/13/2009 3:46:49 PM
LMAO
 
You think that just because some kids on Wikipedia listed a bunch of aircraft as "comparable" means the Koreans are building a 5th generation fighter?  Shoot, of those five aircraft, only two have any meaningful information available.
 
That isn't proof of anything other than the fact that you have no idea what a proper source is.  
 
As for Indonesia "signing up" for the KFX program, that article says nothing of the sort.  Can you read?
 
It says... 
 
"The two countries planned to cooperate in the development of jet-fighter projects.
    "We both discussed the issue of defense and industry of defense. In the future the relation of the two countries (on this field) is expected to be more active and strengthened," Lee told a joint press conference after their meeting."
 
 That is nothing more than a meaningless pledge to cooperate in the future, not a cheque that someone can take to a bank and cash.  Even if Indonesia were serious, they don't have anything to contribute.  No money, no technology, and no operational experience. 
 
Let me spell it out for you one more time since it doesn't seem to have sunk in yet. 
 
The money, resources, and time required to launch a 5th generation fighter program are massive.  No county without significant previous fighter aircraft design experience has a prayer of pulling off such a program, and even the few states that do have that technology and experience require 10+ years of serious R&D and integration work, AFTER a preliminary design is already final.
 
According to your own article, the Koreans are still doing preliminary design and feasibility studies.  That means they haven't even moved past the concept stage and have not launched a serious development program. 
 
When Boeing and Korea sign a formal contract for Boeing to develop, and allow Korean suppliers to contribute to, a 5th generation fighter, you can go ahead and start your stopwatch.  Sometime between 10 and 15 years later you would expect to see finished aircraft rolling off a production line. Such a contract would be huge,  billions of dollars, with huge political and economic implications.  It would require the FORMAL approval of Congress, as well as the Korean government.  In other words, it would be a big big deal.  It would be all over the news, all over the world.  It isn't something that would somehow slip through the cracks and only be reported by kids on messageboards or editing Wikipedia.
 
 
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SlowMan       7/13/2009 4:19:49 PM
@ Rufus

> As for Indonesia "signing up" for the KFX program, that article says nothing of the sort.  Can you read?

What Indonesia signed up for was KFX. This was confirmed in Korean reports.

> That is nothing more than a meaningless pledge to cooperate in the future

What was signed was a letter of understanding, waiting to be converted into congressional approval on both sides.

> Even if Indonesia were serious, they don't have anything to contribute.  No money, no technology, and no operational experience.

Contribution of money would be fine, and Indonesians get the kit to assemble at their facility at a stiff discount, like how Pakistani got JF-17 kit from Chinese for only $8 million per plane.
 
> The money, resources, and time required to launch a 5th generation fighter program are massive.

That massive investment also creates tens of thousands of jobs and foster a domestic aerospace industry. When the purchase bill is a couple of billions, it makes sense to import, but when the purchase bill is $25~30 billion to build your airforce, it makes sense to build it yourself and let the money circulate within the economy.

> When Boeing and Korea sign a formal contract for Boeing to develop, and allow Korean suppliers to contribute to

Actually Boeing would be signing up as an engineering consultant. This is an arrangement similar to the one between KAI and Eurocopter, where KAI was the lead contractor and Eurocopter was the engineering consultant on the $10 billion Korean army helicopter program(Could double to $20 billion with the addition of a Hind-like attack version). < http://www.eurocopter.com/w1/jrotor/68/khp.html > In return, Eurocopter and its European suppliers earn 30% work share and  royalty on every chopper built, in addition to an upfront sum.

> Sometime between 10 and 15 years later you would expect to see finished aircraft rolling off a production line.

They are projecting a 2018 roll out.

> Such a contract would be huge,  billions of dollars, with huge political and economic implications.  It would require the FORMAL approval of Congress, as well as the Korean government.

Well, you never heard of $20 billion helicopter program run by Korean Army. The Korean DoD is spending like crazy to not get left behind in the Asian arms race, $300 billion to be spend on developments and arms purchases by 2020.
 
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Rufus       7/14/2009 2:43:57 AM

"What Indonesia signed up for was KFX. This was confirmed in Korean reports."
 
Uh huh... ok... and what exactly is their participation in this program?
 
What are they contributing and what are they receiving? 
 
You realize what the Indonesian Airforce consists of right?
 
You really need to learn to differentiate a meaningless pledge from a serious development program.
 
 

"What was signed was a letter of understanding, waiting to be converted into congressional approval on both sides."
 
Letter of understanding?  Understanding of what exactly?  Korea has no jet to sell.  If/when they do have a jet to sell, the majority of its content is going to come from overseas and will require the approval of the designer before it can be exported.
 

Contribution of money would be fine, and Indonesians get the kit to assemble at their facility at a stiff discount, like how Pakistani got JF-17 kit from Chinese for only $8 million per plane.
 
For all intents and purposes, the Indonesians don't have any money to contribute.  I said it before, but I will say it again.  Look at what the Indonesian Airforce consists of.  This is an empty pledge of no meaningful value.  Neither the Koreans nor the Indonesians have anything to contribute.
 
While I am at it, the JF-17 is a re-engineered Mig-21.  At this point it is probably fair to call it a 4th generation jet due to the extensive modifications it has received, but this is an absolute bottom rung aircraft and is in no way compareable to a 5th generation program. 
 
That massive investment also creates tens of thousands of jobs and foster a domestic aerospace industry. When the purchase bill is a couple of billions, it makes sense to import, but when the purchase bill is $25~30 billion to build your airforce, it makes sense to build it yourself and let the money circulate within the economy.
 
What a county would like to do and what it is capable of doing are two different things.  Sure, most countries want to spend their money at home, and  yet, most buy their aircraft from abroad. I have already outlined the reasons for this. 
 
Building a competitive fighter aircraft is not simply a question of deciding to spend $10+ billion.  That number only applies if you are dealing with a country that already has all the necessary resources to design and produce the new aircraft.  Korea simply doesn't.  They don't have the airframe design experience.  They don't have low observable design experience.  They don't have avionics design experience.  They don't have engine design experience.  The list goes on and on.  I suppose in a fanboy's mind it is easy to explain that away by saying "oh, they will just buy all those technologies from someone else, and then put it all together," but it just doesn't work that way.  By the time they are done buying all the necessary technologies, all they will be doing is assembling kits. (Which is probably what is going to end up happening, not some new indigenous 5th generation design.)
 

Actually Boeing would be signing up as an engineering consultant. This is an arrangement similar to the one between KAI and Eurocopter, where KAI was the lead contractor and Eurocopter was the engineering consultant on the $10 billion Korean army helicopter program(Could double to $20 billion with the addition of a Hind-like attack version). < link > In return, Eurocopter and its European suppliers earn 30% work share and  royalty on every chopper built, in addition to an upfront sum.
 
Actually, no, Boeing would hav
 
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SlowMan       7/14/2009 11:05:44 AM
@ Rufus

> Uh huh... ok... and what exactly is their participation in this program?

1. Money
2. Would send a few engineers to watch the engineering process in hopes of learning something new.

> what are they receiving?

A kit for local assembly.

> You realize what the Indonesian Airforce consists of right?

Yes.
 
>  Korea has no jet to sell.

The fact that Korean DoD is making sales pitch to overseas customers mean it exists in some form.

>  If/when they do have a jet to sell, the majority of its content is going to come from overseas

30% isn't majority.

> will require the approval of the designer before it can be exported.

Sure Boeing will approve unless it's a sales request to some customers like China(Banned) or Taiwan(Infuriates Chinese and threatens Boeing's mainland commercial jet business), it's royalty revenue for them on each sale, free money.
 
> For all intents and purposes, the Indonesians don't have any money to contribute.

Koreans are proposing to take "natural resources" as payment for the their current bidding of two submarine sales to Indonesia.

> Sure, most countries want to spend their money at home, and  yet, most buy their aircraft from abroad. I have already outlined the reasons for this.

Korea is one of the world's major manufacturing powerhouse and aerospace industry is their "last frontier" for them.
 
> They don't have the airframe design experience.

KFX would be like 5th new airframe design project by Koreans.

>  They don't have low observable design experience.

Stealth(shape and RAM) is one thing Koreans are planning to source from themselves due to the US ban on export of this tech.

> They don't have avionics design experience.

They are alpha-testing one right now and their KF-16 and FA-50 will start replacing US avionics with Korean avionics with compatible Elta EL/M-2032 radar starting 2013, which will again be replaced with a locally produced AESA radar based on early licensed Elta EL/M-2052 design(This Korean avionic accept Elta's radar interface) as it becomes available at later date. Unlike airframe and hardware parts that could easily be imported, Koreans are adamant that all software would be 100% locally produced(zero US source code), as US export ban focuses on software and sensors. I was first shocked at 100% locally developed source code claim, but it's true.

> They don't have engine design experience.

Engine is one sore point of their plan, as they do plan to import F414 EDE+ engine from GE.

> I suppose in a fanboy's mind it is easy to explain that away by saying "oh, they will just buy all those technologies from someone else, and then put it all together," but it just doesn't work that way.

According to Korean DoD's analysis, they currently have or will have 70% of technology needed to build KFX(shaped-based RCS reduction, RAM material, avionics, FWB flight control, AESA radar, electronic jammer, datalink modem, accompanying A2A and A2G weapons suit, and airframe design team). What they don't have is the engine, internal weapons bay, composite material based wing fabrication(they can do the aluminium-alloy wings right now but not the composite ones) and the experience of completing the fighter project from beginning to the end so that they could spot potential troubles early on and properly manage the project, and is seeking an external engineering consultant to fill in those missing 30%, and Boeing is said to be the most aggressive bidder at the moment, so they are working on the project assuming Boeing to be the KFX partner.

> Actually, no, Boeing would have to be doing the large majority of the design and engineering work because the Koreans simply don't have any meaningful capability in that area.

Why do you think Koreans paid $100~110 million+ for F-15E, double what US DoD paid? Because it included lots of technology transfer as offset. Korean indigenous FWB controller is based on the FBW controller software that Boeing released, which was then reverse-engineered after an extensive study(Doesn't contain Boeing source code, but functionally equivalent). The main fuselage section and wings of F-15K and F-15SG aren't manufactured in the US; they are manufactured in Korea then shipped to the US for final assembly. Koreans have been collecting fighter technology under the table as offset of each arms purchase to the point where they now have enough to build one themselves, this is how they built their world-class shipbuilding, auto, and electronics industry.

 
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