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Subject: 2025 - What will the picture really be?
BRoger    4/22/2008 9:48:21 AM
UK defence spending and procurement plans, together with planned changes to the organisational structure of the three Services have been well debated on this and other forums. However, it is painfly obvious that government defence plans and strategies are rarely delivered in full. Domestic politics, geopolitical stability and the nature of the demand are all areas that are often are subject to unforseen changes. They also can and often do, significantly effect UK defence policy / priorities and and the level of financial provision. The classic example of this are the frequent changes to planned procurement programmes. So, the question is, what do you think will be the real state of the three Services in 2025? I know there's a huge amount open to discussion here and variables to consider. But to help structure the debate, perhaps consider the following: What will be (and have been) the overall level of defence spending? Why? What will be prioritised? Whith regards to the RN what will the make up of the fleet be? How will the army have evolved and changed in composition - will the current brigade mix, structure and numbers have remained the same? Will the RAF even still exist and what will it be flying - will it get tranche 3 of Typhoon, how many F-35s will have been bought (for them and the RN)? BR
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interestedamateur       4/23/2008 3:03:42 AM
It's hard to answer BRoger becuase it will inevitably depend upon the level of external threat to the UK. However, if things stay as they are currently (a low threat despite what most people think) then I suspect that defence spending would be between 2% - 2.4%. Maybe even lower, because we do spend more than most of our European counterparts.
- RAF: The current plans are that it will have 12 combat sqns (7 Typhoon, 2 JSF and 3 "other"). I wouldn't be suprised if this wasn't to drop down to 10 sqns simply becuase of the price of aircraft.
- RN: Current plans are that it will have 3 SSBN, 8 SSN, 2 CVF, 6 DDG, 19 FFG. I would think that the number of SSN's will drop to six and the number of FFG's down to 14 or so. The Carriers will remain but only with a small air group.
- Army / RM: Current plans are for 8 combat bdes and 1-2 deployable regional bdes. I would expect this to remain the same because there will be plenty for them to do (UN peacekeeping etc), but I suspect they'll be a bit smaller (3 manouevre units each rather than 4 for example).
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