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Subject: Falklands/Malvinas
eldnah    4/3/2008 10:41:20 AM
In a speech yesterday, the twenty sixth anniversary of the war in the South Atlantic, Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner declared the Falkland/Malvina Is. are inalienably Argentinian. If the Argentians made a grab for the Islands today could Great Britain retake them?
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RaptorZ       4/3/2008 11:06:34 AM
I'm no expert but I think GB is far better prepared for it this time if it went down again.
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Yimmy       4/3/2008 11:34:06 AM
Argentina should have won first time around.  I am sure Argentina will always be in a position to "win" in the future.

British forces on the islands are not enough to repel any invasion, while our NATO size airfield would provide the Argentinians with a solid position to defend the islands from our fleet.

The Argentine military equipment is very dated however, not so much there army, but their navy and air force aren't doing so well these days.

All in all, an Argentinian invasion is politically a non-issue.

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DragonReborn       4/3/2008 6:40:39 PM
IF they do want to invade, then they should quietly build up their forces again until 2015 when we will have retired all of our Harrier Carriers, and will have a window of several years until the new Queen Elizabeth Class Carriers are in service (Assuming we do get the new Queen Elizabeth Class Carriers!).

An invasion in 2015 might be quite hard to counter unless we can get the US to lend us the air power to fight the war, and my bet is that in this case, the US would push diplomacy and sanctions on the Argies as before but would not get involved militarily.

Carriers aside the British army is too over stretched at the moment to respond to an invasion without cancelling tours in Iraq and Afgahanistan. Who's to say what the army will be doing in 2015 and what sort of Government we will have?

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neutralizer       4/4/2008 5:21:55 AM
Last time the Arg initial success was due to achieving strategic suprise.  They can't count on that today or in the future.  Defence of FI does not depend of forces in place, it depends on intelligence and the ability to reinforce, including troops to use the pre-positioned equipment.  C17s and the just announced arrangements for A330 tpts/tankers mean the capability to reinforce is significant.  And if it happened forget 'harmony' guidelines, Arg would be facing thousands of battle hardened squaddies in bad humour, thinking 'make my day' and looking forward to meeting gang of Arg miltary virgins, Arg would get away with light casualties again.  Then there's the uncertainty, to Arg, of the lurking SSN(s).  Carriers are not even in the equation, to think this falls into the old trap of expecting the future to be like the past.  This earns a big fat F for failure to those who so think.
Of course there is a real issues here, oil, and it seems increasingly likely that the FI EZ contains lots of it and the technolguy to get at it is now basically available.  Arg are going to go bananas over this (filthy gringos stealing 'our' oil, etc, etc), and expect everyone's favourite dictator, Hugo Chavez to be shouting the odds big time in Arg favour.  Now how will this play in the US? :-)
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flamingknives       4/4/2008 12:39:59 PM
British SSN with tomahawks would give any Argentinean aggression serious problems.
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Yimmy       4/4/2008 1:00:23 PM
I am not sure how useful our squadies experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, fighting insurgents, will be in the Falklands, fighting a conventional enemy.

I also doubt we would get round to boosting our forces on the islands in time for anything - but that is just me being pessimistic.  As for SSN's with Tomahawk, that is a very expensive way of deploying a 1,000 pound bomb, and would not be useful for much other than putting holes in the runway.

When I think "Falklands", I think of the Japanese defending Iwo Jima, and it amazes me how Argentina lost first time around.

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eldnah       4/4/2008 4:04:07 PM
I always believed from my readings the Brits won because their soldiers much better trained and performed better from the Generals to the privates. The Brits were also lucky that so many of the Argentine bombs were duds 
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ArtyEngineer       4/4/2008 4:09:04 PM

I always believed from my readings the Brits won because their soldiers much better trained and performed better from the Generals to the privates. The Brits were also lucky that so many of the Argentine bombs were duds 

Yeah, until our papers told the Argies about the problem and they worked out how to fuse them properly.  I think the Royal Navy is still p!ssed about that!!!!!!
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Softwar       4/4/2008 4:44:38 PM
Any move on the Falklands by Argentina would be fool-hardy and doomed to fail.  Their Air Force and Navy are in very poor condition these days.  I think that flying up against Tornados out of Stanley would be a losing proposition - much less trying to work past the SSN force the UK can muster.  One can only imagine what havoc the Eurofighter would inflict on any invasion forces.
The last go around brought an embargo from the US and Argentina would not survive the economic chaos of a similar embargo today.  Frankly, the US would loan you the Kitty Hawk if asked.
The speech was bluster intended to boost morale and support - typical.  Until the Falkland islanders themselves vote for union with Argentina the islands will remain British.  Not likely any time in the future - near or distant.
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flamingknives       4/4/2008 5:31:33 PM
A tomahawk may be an inefficient way of delivering a 1000lb bomb, but when the other options involve refuelling operations from Ascension, outside the ferry range of the available strike aircraft, it's not so bad.

If you can get specops teams in to spot, then you can start going after aircraft shelters and useful things.
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