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Subject: Will the Special Relationship survive under Brown?
AdamB    6/28/2007 9:07:31 AM
After Blair Will the special relationship survive? National Review By Nile Gardiner June 27, 2007 Far from being America's "poodle", Britain is very important for the United States Tony Blair’s departure from Downing Street potentially marks the end of an era in U.S.-British relations. His extraordinarily close partnership with President Bush since the 9/11 attacks defied all expectations and provided the engine for the global War on Terror. In the past six years, the alliance between the United States and Great Britain rose to its strongest point since the days of the Cold War bond between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. Today, more than 12,000 British troops fight alongside their American counterparts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and London and Washington are cooperating on dozens of counterterrorism operations across the globe. The enduring strength of the alliance is the envy of the free world, and the French president or German chancellor can only dream of the kind of direct access to the White House that is the preserve of the British prime minister. The special relationship is, however, under threat, and stands in a precarious long-term position. There are major challenges on the horizon, including the stunning rise of anti-Americanism in Britain, growing attempts by the al Qaeda network to break the alliance, as well as the continuing loss of British sovereignty in the European Union. The relationship cannot be taken for granted, and protecting and defending it should be a top-level priority for the U.S. government. There is growing public animosity in the U.K. toward the alliance, and widespread disillusionment with American global leadership, across all political parties, social classes, and age groups. In a September 2006 Financial Times/Harris poll, a striking 33 percent of Britons surveyed described the United States as "the greatest threat to global stability."(Just 21 percent named Iran, and 10 percent, North Korea.) Nearly 70 percent of Britons questioned in an October 2006 Guardian/ICM survey stated that U.S. policy had made the world "less safe" since 2001, and 75 percent agreed that President Bush was “a great or moderate danger to peace”, more than the 62 percent scored by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the 69 percent by Kim Jong Il. In a June 2006 Daily Telegraph/ YouGov poll, 77 percent of those polled disagreed with the view that the United States was “a beacon of hope for the world,” and 58 percent supported the description of America as “an imperial power.” Sixty-seven percent of respondents expressed “little or very little confidence” in “the ability of the United States to deal wisely with present world problems,” and 65 percent supported the view that U.S. policies made the world “a somewhat or much worse place to live in.” A July 2006 Guardian/ICM poll found that 63 percent of Britons thought the UK was “too close to the USA,” and just 9 percent of British respondents in a March 2007 YouGov poll agreed with the proposition that "Britain should continue to base its foreign policy on its close relationship with the United States." If these poll findings are cemented over the next few years and become part of an irreversible trend, the ramifications for future British policy toward the United States will be immense. They reflect a commonly held, though hugely unfair view among the British public that Britain under Tony Blair has become America’s “poodle,” receiving nothing in return. Blair’s unyielding support for President Bush perversely weakened the prospect of future British leaders standing shoulder to shoulder with the United States. His successor, Gordon Brown, will be heavily dependent upon the traditional socialist Left of the ruling Labor party for support, and will be under pressure not to emulate the close Bush-Blair partnership. A frequent visitor to the United States, Brown’s instincts are far from anti-American, but those of his party certainly are. He will undoubtedly seek to create some distance between Washington and London, and will prioritize ‘soft’ issues, such as international development, foreign aid, and global warming. The high-profile, flashy public press conferences that were a regular feature of the Washington political scene when Blair was prime minister, are likely to replaced by low key, but tougher behind the scenes negotiations, with Brown cutting a far less dashing figure on the world stage. While there is no prospect of a British withdrawal from Afghanistan — in fact more troops are arriving every day — a further deterioration in the security situation in Iraq and a significant loss of British troops would greatly increase the pressure on Brown to withdraw Britain’s remaining 5,500 soldiers from the country, unilaterally if necessary. It will certainly be the goal of Tehran to force the British out of Shiite-dominated southern Iraq, breaking down the international coalition, and increasing the pol
 
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Armchair Private       7/31/2007 2:54:43 PM




I've not seen any distancing yet, merely the use of the media to imply a distancing when non has actually occurred. Though this will await an appropriate test.
 

True, but I would be surprised if you saw them with the same kind of “intimacy” that Blair and Bush had. Nor would I expect Brown to be as uncritical as his predecessor of Washington. Whether all this would just be blustering for the cameras to reassure the public or whether it would mark a change in policy, as you say, only time will tell.

I find it hard to believe that significant movement away from alignment with the US will occur, largely because at the level of the beaurocrat we are so closely enmeshed together, this culture of enmeshment would take real effort to overcome/disable, I can't see that effort coming from a New Labour or a Tory Gov.

I really don't think that the 'younger generation's views can be summed up so easily, anti americanisim is fashionable, that's all, it's not exactly backed up by heavy weight intellectual thought (see a certain poster beginning with A (I hope this wasnt a referenence to myself)). The next generation will rebel against this orthodoxy too. 
 
It was not.

Anti-Americanism is fashionable and you know what, its increasing. It is truly shocking the extant public perception have has changed in the last 10 years of the US in Britain. My own generation (mid twenties and down) have no memory of World War 2 or the struggle against the totalitarian Soviet Union and do not recollect in fondness the part the USA played in these victories. Instead we have been brought up on a diet of events like the Iraq war, Guantanamo Bay, Kyoto, etc….. Whether you believe these events right or wrong is irrelevant, they have been divisive.

Agreed, but I'm not convinced that they are any more significant, or will have any more impact than Vietnam or Greenham common. The 24hr news cycle amplifies the apparent size and importance of these events (which is not to say I don't think Guantanamo and the rest are both morally indefensible and practically stupid), particularly amongst those of us who post on sites like these who presumably spend an above average amount of our lives reading, listening to and viewing the 'news'.

The US speaks English, Germany doesn't. This is a huge practical draw that the US has over other countries to the UK public, especially when we're ever increasingly monoglot.

The EU progresses in the UK solely due to lack of interest and information, if the population knew how many UK laws (the majority now) were made by the EU they would be less happy then they are already. The first few examples of british people being indicted by european courts for activities in the UK that are not crimes here, but never the less come under the aegis of the pan european arrest warrant thingey may be a shot in the arm in that respect.

I’m not sure if I buy the “lack of information” argument. The Eurosceptic press (thank you Mr Murdoch) in Britain have a much wider circulation than any even vaguely pro-European media. And they are well versed in the art of scaremongering

Well you make my point here really, what opposition that exists in the press is largely unfounded scaremongering yes, and however much people in the U
 
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mans21       7/31/2007 5:42:09 PM
The us has 4 to 5 times our economy and the only thing we get from Europe is a massive bill.
 
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Armchair Private       7/31/2007 5:59:40 PM

The us has 4 to 5 times our economy and the only thing we get from Europe is a massive bill.


5.6 times according to wiki's IMF 2006 figs.
 
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mans21       7/31/2007 6:06:29 PM
Still less than 9 or 10.
 
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Armchair Private       7/31/2007 9:02:48 PM

Still less than 9 or 10.


Possibly.
 
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Asymmetric    armchair reply   8/1/2007 12:55:47 PM

Perhaps it is because my own country Scotland is already ruled from a different nation’s parliament that I find all the talk about losing sovereignty to be a mute point. As long as we get strong representation within the EU (and other than Germany the UK’s voice is the loudest) I see no problem with further integration, only benefits.

I also have no objection with the UK having a close relationship with the US as long as it’s from a position of strength from inside the EU than its current Junior/Senior partnership.


Scotland has a much better degree of representation in Parliament than England does, in terms of MP per voter, votes in some some Scottish constituencies are worth 3 or 4 times as much as mine, on top of that Scotland has its own Parliament, over which the English have no say. Rationally someone living in England has more worries about sovereignty than someone living in Scotland surely? Just out of interest if I moved up to live in Scotland, would I then be Scottish to you or English?

The Junior/Senior partnership is a fact of life. The US is 9 or 10 times our GDP. Having said that we get a huge advantage within the EU by being so close to the US. Germany, France Italy and the rest would sell their grandmas for our relationship with the US, "special", "lapdog" what ever you want to call it....

I think you are skipping over the fact there’s 533 English MP’s (not to mention 40 Welsh) and only 59 Scottish MP’s. Not that I’m saying this is unfair given the population differences, but it is clear who can stand on whose toes. If you’re worried about Scots voting on English and Welsh legislation then don’t bring English and Welsh issues to Westminster, the Parliament of the United Kingdom, get your own parliament, to raise these problems.

I would quite happily see an English parliament gain control over much of these issues

  • the National Health Service in England;
  • schools and teacher training;
  • further and higher education;
  • local government finance and taxation;
  • land-use planning and building control;
  • the environment;
  • passenger and road transport;
  • economic development and financial assistance to industry;
  • civil and criminal courts;
  • much of criminal and civil law;
  • prisons;
  • police and fire services;
  • food standards;
  • certain areas of agriculture and fisheries;
  • the arts;
  • sport;

The EU on the other hand is not dominated by any single nation and it quite fluid. As I have already said the UK is extremely well represented and it is incredibility difficult to get anything done without British consent.

It’s when it comes to foreign policy and defence I want to see the EU have a lot bigger say than it does now. Europe spends 60% of the USA’s defence budget and what we get in comparison is quite frankly pathetic. I have strong doubts of any EU nations operating independent effectively in the 21st centaury. With domestic powers being devolved from Westminster to smaller parliaments and with international powers heading towards Brussels, it makes the very existence of a Quote    Reply


EssexBoy       8/1/2007 1:05:59 PM
The deafening silence on the US boards tells us how special this relationship is to them. Time we grew up and realised we're just a handy medium-sized ally and not a partner to the world's superpower.
 
Essex
 
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patriot17       8/1/2007 1:20:54 PM

After Blair

Will the special relationship survive?

National Review
By Nile Gardiner
June 27, 2007

Far from being America's "poodle", Britain is very important for the United States



Tony Blair’s departure from Downing Street potentially marks the end of an era in U.S.-British relations. His extraordinarily close partnership with President Bush since the 9/11 attacks defied all expectations and provided the engine for the global War on Terror. In the past six years, the alliance between the United States and Great Britain rose to its strongest point since the days of the Cold War bond between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Today, more than 12,000 British troops fight alongside their American counterparts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and London and Washington are cooperating on dozens of counterterrorism operations across the globe. The enduring strength of the alliance is the envy of the free world, and the French president or German chancellor can only dream of the kind of direct access to the White House that is the preserve of the British prime minister.

The special relationship is, however, under threat, and stands in a precarious long-term position. There are major challenges on the horizon, including the stunning rise of anti-Americanism in Britain, growing attempts by the al Qaeda network to break the alliance, as well as the continuing loss of British sovereignty in the European Union. The relationship cannot be taken for granted, and protecting and defending it should be a top-level priority for the U.S. government.

There is growing public animosity in the U.K. toward the alliance, and widespread disillusionment with American global leadership, across all political parties, social classes, and age groups.

In a September 2006 Financial Times/Harris poll, a striking 33 percent of Britons surveyed described the United States as "the greatest threat to global stability."(Just 21 percent named Iran, and 10 percent, North Korea.) Nearly 70 percent of Britons questioned in an October 2006 Guardian/ICM survey stated that U.S. policy had made the world "less safe" since 2001, and 75 percent agreed that President Bush was “a great or moderate danger to peace”, more than the 62 percent scored by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the 69 percent by Kim Jong Il.

In a June 2006 Daily Telegraph/ YouGov poll, 77 percent of those polled disagreed with the view that the United States was “a beacon of hope for the world,” and 58 percent supported the description of America as “an imperial power.” Sixty-seven percent of respondents expressed “little or very little confidence” in “the ability of the United States to deal wisely with present world problems,” and 65 percent supported the view that U.S. policies made the world “a somewhat or much worse place to live in.” A July 2006 Guardian/ICM poll found that 63 percent of Britons thought the UK was “too close to the USA,” and just 9 percent of British respondents in a March 2007 YouGov poll agreed with the proposition that "Britain should continue to base its foreign policy on its close relationship with the United States."

If these poll findings are cemented over the next few years and become part of an irreversible trend, the ramifications for future British policy toward the United States will be immense. They reflect a commonly held, though hugely unfair view among the British public that Britain under Tony Blair has become America’s “poodle,” receiving nothing in return. Blair’s unyielding support for President Bush perversely weakened the prospect of future British leaders standing shoulder to shoulder with the United States. His successor, Gordon Brown, will be heavily dependent upon the traditional socialist Left of the ruling Labor party for support, and will be under pressure not to emulate the close Bush-Blair partnership.

A frequent visitor to the United States, Brown’s instincts are far from anti-American, but those of his party certainly are. He will undoubtedly seek to create some distance between Washington and London, and will prioritize ‘soft’ issues, such as international development, foreign aid, and global warming. The high-profile, flashy public press conferences that were a regular feature of the Washington political scene when Blair was prime minister, are likely to replaced by low key, but tougher behind the scenes negotiations, with Brown cutting a far less dashing figure on the world stage.

While there is no prospect of a British withdrawal from Afghanistan — in fa
 
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Herald1234       8/1/2007 1:27:16 PM

The deafening silence on the US boards tells us how special this relationship is to them. Time we grew up and realised we're just a handy medium-sized ally and not a partner to the world's superpower.

 

Essex


That deafening silence you hear EB is a cautious US trying to wait and see where Gordon Brown leads you. After six years of hearing we shoot off our big mouths and shout people down, maybe George Bush and company and the rest of US choose to shut up and LISTEN?
The quickest way to lose a friend is to shoot off your big mouth when he's trying to make some major decisions of his own.
 
If you want our advice we'll offer it, if you want our praise, its always there, but until we know what you've decided, why should we react or comment  about your domestic politics?
 
Give Gordon Brown a chance to lead first and then we'll comment on where he takes you.
 
Herald
 
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Armchair Private       8/1/2007 3:18:26 PM

The deafening silence on the US boards tells us how special this relationship is to them. Time we grew up and realised we're just a handy medium-sized ally and not a partner to the world's superpower.

 

Essex


Errr..... is there usually a thread on the UK board when a foreign leader visits the UK? Have I missed them? Should other nationals take offense that we don't write in glowing terms about their head of Government or head of state when they visit?

We are indeed a handy mid-sized ally to them I imagine, whether we wish to be a partner (albeit a junior one) is up to us, I think the childish response is "if we can't be equal, then we won't be friends at all!"

Stamp.
 
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