I'd say great minds think alike but then that would be an insult to you.....

I wish I could say I was convinced by your arguments but I am still too impressed with Liddell Hart's analysis that the West was the decisive theater and that Sherman's was the only recognizable example of strategic ability on the part of the generals of the war. Realistically, the South's chances were limited to a collapse of the will to carry on the war on the part of the North. Failing to inflict the unlikely blow of a battle of annhiliation which might possibly generate that result, the South needed to test the steadfastness of the North to the utmost as a beseiged city does that of the army surrounding it. Maximizing its perceived defensive successes while minimizing the North's seeming offensive successes should have helped to deliver the White House to the Democats in 1864 and a negotiated peace would have ended the war. So the defeat of the South was owing to a failure at the level of grand strategic vision. That's my guess anyway.

Grant had grabbed on to Lee's army a year before and yet Lee had held him at bay none the less until Sherman had marched to the sea. I still believe Sherman won the war. The Shenandoah was a big loss but almost the entire Confederacy was a greater loss still.