Royal or Sarkozy

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Subject: Royal or Sarkozy
YelliChink 4/20/2007 10:50:16 AM

Could Frenchmen on this board give us none French enlightment on policy and support base of these two candidates? Who's more likely to win?

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french stratege 4/20/2007 4:08:08 PM

First nobody know who will be on second round.Likely Sarkozy, but after nobody knows exactly who will be rank between Segolene, Bayrou and Lepen.Polls are quite unreliable.

Normally if Sarkozy on second round:

If contender is Bayrou, Bayrou should win

If contender is Segolene,Sarkozy should win

If contender is Lepen,Sarkozy should win

But nothing is sure.

Latest poll as said that Bayrou could be second.Le Pen score in unpredictable in a fork between 13 and 23% since almost nobody say to pollers that he would vote for him. Likely to be number 4 but who know?

On Policy:

Sarkozy: European but with strong will for France to be independant/tought on international affairs/Liberal on economic/Value work/Tough on internal security and immigration/ProNATO (but not too much)/To maintain defense and PA2 (aircraft carrier2)/seen as ambitious and proactive on personal profile and a fascist by left

Bayrou: Very European for federal state/internal problem oriented and low profile on international affairs/ slow reformist on economic/Value work/Likely weak on internal security and immigration/ProEU on defense and NATO (but not too much)/To probably maintain defense and probably PA2 (aircraft carrier2))/seen as weak and hypocrit on personal profile

Segolene: European but with strong will for France to be independant/average on international affairs/leftist on economic and pro taxes but should try to maintain industrial competitivity while quite nationalist/Value work/average on internal security and weak on immigration/ProNATO (but not too much)/To maintain (or lower a little) defense and not sure to get PA2 (aircraft carrier2)))/seen as power greedy and an handsome female dictator on personal profile

LePen: Anti European and nationalist//tought on international affairs/Liberal but nationalist on economic (see nazis)/Value work/Ultra tough on internal security and immigration/AntiNATO/To extend defense to more than 3% GDP including PA2 (aircraft carrier2)/seen as a fascist/nazi or flamboyant condotierre on personal profile

Segolene or Bayrou will manage with coalitions so will be quite soft.

Sarkozy could lead to social unrest and fight with oppoents

Le Pen could lead to civil war or dictatorship.

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YelliChink 4/20/2007 4:31:23 PM

Thanks FS.

Could you specify more on all candidates' foreign policy on China and Far East?

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french stratege 4/20/2007 5:38:45 PM

Sarkozy will be more tough on China if USA are China go to conflict: he will side USA.(even it do not mean that we would necessary participate to a conflict but he could enforce embargo).

Bayrou would be more tough on China if China violate openly human rights by accepting a common EU economic embargos.Would not push as Sarkosy for that.Policy would stay the same in the current situation

Same for Segolene.

Le Pen would do what matter for France selfish interest and don't care of China human rights but is anticommunist.Likely to be neutral except if China try to get advantage on France like in Africa or french overseas territories and our influence zones.Then he would react violently including military force.

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verdunjp Sarko 4/20/2007 11:23:03 PM

I think Sarkozy would be a better President than Royal. Each time I listen Sarkozy, he goes right on target and has pragmatics solutions. Each time I listen Royal, she talks a lot but says nothing. She uses a lot of "cliché" like "Its time to listen people", It's time to give France to people", "It's time for a change", "I will change the way to do politic"....bur she rarely talks "en profondeur".

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Shirrush Okay compatriots... 4/21/2007 3:03:29 PM

...and fellow Amphibians!
Gloves are off for now!
Since your privacy, and your right to the secrecy of your personal electoral choice are fully protected by the anonymity conferred by this discussion board, can you puh-leeeease tell us frankly and squarely who is it that you'd like as france's next prez?

I've made my own decision not to haul ass tomorrow to the French consulate in Tel-Aviv, and to reserve my voting rights to Israel only, to which I pay taxes. This does not mean that I'm not going to vote at the second turn, however, since I may have to do so in order to try and prevent the election of Le Pen, whom I believe would lead France not only to dictatorship and/or civil war, but also to shame and isolation.
Either Sarko or Bayrou will make acceptable chiefs of the Executive, sort of. The good-looking lady from the Left is not, IMV, leadership material, since she listens to no-one and is not likely to be able to orchestrate the teamwork necessary to handle any crisis: just picture yourself Sego at the helm in wartime!
I am very skeptical as to the the ability, or even the willingness, of any of the prospective presidents, to change anything in the way the French foreign policy is run by the civil service caste ("les grands commis de l'Etat") that has been responsible for France's nefarious role in World affairs since shortly after WWII. Nor will they change anything in the way the state-run media are shaping the francophone public opinion and abetting and appeasing the enemies of western democracy. I am sure, however, that either Sarkozy, Bayrou or Royal will talk smoother and nicer that Chirac on the international scene, and tone down the anti-American and anti-Israeli background noise a little bit.
Low expectations obviously generate little, if any, disappointments.

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Bluewings12 4/22/2007 2:48:42 PM

I want Sarkozy to be President .
He 'll win against Royal .

Cheers .

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AdvanceAustralia Best wishes. 4/22/2007 2:54:51 PM

I want Sarkozy to be President .

He 'll win against Royal .

Cheers .

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Bluewings12 4/22/2007 6:13:33 PM

Thanks AA .
I 'm really fed up to see an half hearted socialist France .
Nicolas Sarkozy is the Man to follow , no doubt whatsoever . He 'll do good .

Cheers .

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Claymore 4/22/2007 6:23:47 PM

I hope Sarkozy wins too. Europe is trending to the right. Best of Luck French posters

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Bluewings12 4/22/2007 6:32:54 PM

Shirrush :
""I am very skeptical as to the the ability, or even the willingness, of any of the prospective presidents, to change anything in the way the French foreign policy is run by the civil service caste""

The French foreign policy has been right all along since GW1 . Chirac might be a crook but He did what the French people wanted and History will not forget it .
Myself , I want the French foreign policy to be as strong or even stronger than it is now . France has always been a lighthouse in the World for her human rights , her freedom and her independance . She shall continue .

""I am sure, however, that either Sarkozy, Bayrou or Royal will talk smoother and nicer that Chirac on the international scene""

N. Sarkozy can be trusted on the European scene , when S. Royal does not know on which chair to sit .
World wise , Sarkozy will follow the path France has taken , because it is the good one and the only one .
Regarding the USA , He might indeed talked smoother because He 's younger and understand better than Chirac the civilization clash between the West and the muslims .
S. Royal is socialist , enough said ...

Cheers .

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