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Subject: The Sochi Olympics and impending apocalypse
smitty237    1/13/2014 8:11:20 PM
Last night I surfing the net and found an article that presented an interesting scenario. I can't defend the scholarship of the article, but I thought that the topic was worthy of thought and discussion. The article claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin has secretly issued a threat (through plausibly deniable) to Muslim terrorist groups that if they attack the Sochi Olympics he will retaliate by nuking Mecca. The story goes on to claim that the counterstrike would be made to either look like a terrorist attack or somehow implicate Israel. The story goes on to claim that President George W. Bush issued a similar threat post-911 (I know, I know). Again, I cannot defend the scholarship or the research in the article, so please don't attack that. Do you think Putin would make such a threat? And if so, would he actually carry it out? How would Russia realistically carry out such a counterstrike? Saudi Arabia would be defenseless against a land based or submarine launched missile attack, but making it look like a terrorist attack seems unnecessarily risky. Please discuss.
 
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smitty237    Ugh   1/13/2014 8:27:28 PM
I apologize for the grammatical errors.  I love this site, but posting threads are not as easy as it should be, and editing can be a pain.  Posting a reply is easier than starting a topic, which is kind of jacked up.  Oh well. 
 
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WarNerd       1/14/2014 5:26:25 AM
Could you post a link?  This sounds like an out-of-control mutated conspiracy theory.
 
No way that Russia would nuke Mecca, it would eventually leak out and the blowback would be massive and eternal.  Nuclear weapons can be fingerprinted from their fallout resulting from variation in design and fissionable mix, making it very difficult to finger the US or Israel unless they have succeeded in stealing a nuke from either country.
 
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Reactive       1/14/2014 10:16:12 AM
Yes the source isn't credible at all - leaders don't tend to make overt threats involving nuclear weapons..
 
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smitty237    Don't shoot the messenger   1/14/2014 11:12:31 AM
I will track down the article and try to post a link.  The threat supposedly wasn't an overt threat, but one made through plausibly deniable channels (again, not sure what those would be).  Agreed, nuking Mecca or Medina would create a mess that we would be dealing with for generations, but if terrorists pull of a 9/11 scale attack in Sochi?  What would the Russians do in retailiation?  What would we do if there was a 9/11 scale attack in Sochi? 
 
 
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JFKY    What would anyone gain   1/14/2014 11:38:29 AM
from "Nuking Mecca?"  Explain how the destruction of Mecca would teach anyone a lesson?
 
This is one of those Pravda/Alex Jones sorts of stories......
 
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smitty237    The Link   1/14/2014 1:07:08 PM
 
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smitty237    The problem with threats   1/14/2014 1:35:23 PM
I had to look Alex Jones up.  Not really my kind of guy. 
By following the story the biggest lesson Putin would be trying to teach is, "If you attack us, we will hit you back where it will hurt you the hardest."  Of course this would be a disaster and would only serve to radicalize every Muslim in the world.  I'm sure Putin knows this, but if  he had issued such a threat, and Muslim terrorists struck Sochi with a 9/11 style attack anyway, what would he do?  If he carries out the threat he's a monster, but if he doesn't respond in a spectacular fashion he will be viewed as weak.  For discussion's sake, let's assume the terrorist attack would be something involving thousands of casualties, not an Atlanta Olympic Park bombing or Munich. 

from "Nuking Mecca?"  Explain how the destruction of Mecca would teach anyone a lesson?

 
This is one of those Pravda/Alex Jones sorts of stories......



 
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JFKY    Well which is why he    1/14/2014 1:55:57 PM
he ahs made no such threat.
 
I'd be intrigued to see the theory on this....
"We shall use nuclear weapons on innocent third parties who had no (direct) connection to the attack."
 
If the Attackers used Nike's would the Russians be justified in attacking Vietnam, should they have any connection to  he US would the Russians be justified in attacking a US city?
 
I have little doubt that IF a 9-11 attack, mass casualties, occur in Sochi, or Moscow or anywhere in Russia that the Russians would stop at pretty much NOTHING to bring to "justice" those held responsible.  But I'm not sure how infuriating a Billion Muslims and destroying Mecca would in any way advance Russian interests and be anything close to bringing about a just end....
 
UNLESS, the Russians could show a DIRECT Sa'udi connection, a money/paper trail leading to senior Sa'uds and/or the Government of Sa'udi Arabia.  Now, were that to be the case, I wouldn't want to be an "expendable," minor member of the House of Sa'ud because very bad things are about to befall you....I mean very bad things.  Because a bunch of dead Russian civilians, dead at Sa'udi hands, would be JUST the provocation the Russians might need to seek justice at the expense of the Sa'udi's and to secure a foothold in the Middle East.
 
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smitty237    The problem with threats   1/14/2014 1:56:28 PM
I had to look Alex Jones up.  Not really my kind of guy. 
By following the story the biggest lesson Putin would be trying to teach is, "If you attack us, we will hit you back where it will hurt you the hardest."  Of course this would be a disaster and would only serve to radicalize every Muslim in the world.  I'm sure Putin knows this, but if  he had issued such a threat, and Muslim terrorists struck Sochi with a 9/11 style attack anyway, what would he do?  If he carries out the threat he's a monster, but if he doesn't respond in a spectacular fashion he will be viewed as weak.  For discussion's sake, let's assume the terrorist attack would be something involving thousands of casualties, not an Atlanta Olympic Park bombing or Munich. 

from "Nuking Mecca?"  Explain how the destruction of Mecca would teach anyone a lesson?

 
This is one of those Pravda/Alex Jones sorts of stories......



 
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Reactive       1/14/2014 4:21:00 PM
I'm not sure what an attack on the Winter Olympics would achieve anyway - I can't think of many terrorist groups that would necessarily want to draw the combined condemnation of every attending nation, certain unilateral and (likely) multilateral use-of-force to prosecute the group in question and certainly multilateral attention on funding sources etc that are hardly desirable outcomes - I know that is crediting such groups with greater rational-thought capability than is perhaps the case but if there is such a thing as a faux-pas in international terrorism it's that which pisses off all the major powers simultaneously. 
 
 
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