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Subject: Predictions for the lead up to the federal election?
Aussiegunneragain    2/18/2010 6:27:35 AM
Here are the latest (Feb 16) Newspoll results for Australian federal parties. http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/100204%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings%20+%20Best%20Leader.pdf It basically reads as follows: -the Coalition's primary vote is about 2% lower than it was for the last election, though it has picked up somewhat under Abbot from Turnbull's dying days. -The ALP's has dropped by about 4% and the Greens has jumped by about 5%, picking up most of the extra votes. -The ALP and Coalition are about the same as they were last time on a two-party preferred basis, with the ALP at 53% and the Coalition at 47%. -Kevin Rudd's personal satisfaction rating is down quite a bit, as is his rating as preferred PM against Tony Abbott. The way I read this there are a lot of left wing voters out there who are disolusioned with Kevin Rudd's failure to deliver what they expected of him, so they are going to the Greens. Most centrist swinging voters will probably staying with the ALP and Tony Abbott's Coalition will keep the welded on conservatives. I don't think workchoices is dead enough in anybodies mind for them to pick up any disaffected working class voters this time around. What are people's thoughts on this and how it might influence the strategies of the major parties over the next 6 months or so until the election? the ALP is heading for a comfortable victory in the lower house with numbers probably looking at staying about the same. However, the Greens look like they might
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Bahhh, red wine and posting on the internet is a bad mix   2/18/2010 6:35:21 AM
Try again.
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Here are the latest (Feb 16) Newspoll results for Australian federal parties.

http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/100204%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings%20+%20Best%20Leader.pdf" > />
It basically reads as follows:

-the Coalition's primary vote is about 2% lower than it was for the last election, though it has picked up somewhat under Abbot from Turnbull's dying days.
-The ALP's has dropped by about 4% and the Greens has jumped by about 5%, picking up most of the extra votes.
-The ALP and Coalition are about the same as they were last time on a two-party preferred basis, with the ALP at 53% and the Coalition at 47%.
-Kevin Rudd's personal satisfaction rating is down quite a bit, as is his rating as preferred PM against Tony Abbott.

The way I read this there are a lot of left wing voters out there who are disolusioned with Kevin Rudd's failure to deliver what they expected of him, so they are going to the Greens. Most centrist swinging voters will probably staying with the ALP and Tony Abbott's Coalition will keep the welded on conservatives. I don't think Workchoices is dead enough in anybodies mind for them to pick up any disaffected working class voters this time around. 

As I see it this means that if things track the way they are at the moment then the ALP will win comfortably in the lower house on Greens preferences, but the Greens may knock off some extra Senate seats ... possibly enough to get the balance of power.

What are people's thoughts on this and how it might influence the strategies of the major parties over the next 6 months or so until the election?

the
 
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Volkodav       2/20/2010 8:08:32 PM
Gut feeling, Labor with an increased majority in the lower house, but not with control of the senate.  I feel there will be more independents in the senate but don't think the Greens or Family First will increase their numbers as while they have been vocal they haven't actually done anything useful to govern.  There will likely be more independents along the lines of Xenaphon, who are willing to negotiate rather than just hold everything hostage to get their own crank ideas up.
 
I can only hope that the Liberals who get rolled this year are predominantly ratbags and are replaced next election with some real talent so government is an option in 2016.  It had been my hope that this would happen this year, i.e. they win back a number of seats with new blood this year then be in a possition win government in 2013 but the mad monk has made any inroads unlikely and the support he has received from the party has damaged the moderate / reasonable veneer many appeared to have.
 
Abbot has won back many rightwingers Howard lost to One Nation etc, but who in their right mind wants them anyway?  Pretty much like Labor have no time for the left wing union ratbags, there is no room in Australian politics for zealots of any shade, they just give the electorate the willies.  As the third attempt to get it right many conservative voters have lined up behind Abbot in a display of unity and support similar to that experienced with Latham but when it comes to the crunch, as happened with Latham, they will be unable to stomach the idea of a loose cannon being PM. 
 
Abbot is great at kicking the crap out of Rudd and making him work harder but is just too unpredictable and bound by personal convictions to be PM material.  The Liberals will have to wait for a better option to come along.
 
p.s. they need to get rid on Minchin, the damage that man does to the party behind the scenes to get his own particular extreme views up is one of the reasons no moderate can currently succeed as Liberal leader.
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Volkodav   2/20/2010 10:16:41 PM

Gut feeling, Labor with an increased majority in the lower house, but not with control of the senate.  I feel there will be more independents in the senate but don't think the Greens or Family First will increase their numbers as while they have been vocal they haven't actually done anything useful to govern.  There will likely be more independents along the lines of Xenaphon, who are willing to negotiate rather than just hold everything hostage to get their own crank ideas up.

I can only hope that the Liberals who get rolled this year are predominantly ratbags and are replaced next election with some real talent so government is an option in 2016.  It had been my hope that this would happen this year, i.e. they win back a number of seats with new blood this year then be in a possition win government in 2013 but the mad monk has made any inroads unlikely and the support he has received from the party has damaged the moderate / reasonable veneer many appeared to have.

Abbot has won back many rightwingers Howard lost to One Nation etc, but who in their right mind wants them anyway?  Pretty much like Labor have no time for the left wing union ratbags, there is no room in Australian politics for zealots of any shade, they just give the electorate the willies.  As the third attempt to get it right many conservative voters have lined up behind Abbot in a display of unity and support similar to that experienced with Latham but when it comes to the crunch, as happened with Latham, they will be unable to stomach the idea of a loose cannon being PM. 

Abbot is great at kicking the crap out of Rudd and making him work harder but is just too unpredictable and bound by personal convictions to be PM material.  The Liberals will have to wait for a better option to come along.

p.s. they need to get rid on Minchin, the damage that man does to the party behind the scenes to get his own particular extreme views up is one of the reasons no moderate can currently succeed as Liberal leader.


I'd like to think that we would get more independents like Xenophon but I don't see anybody with the sort of profile he had to get the votes. I agree with your sentiment that the Greens don't deserve to win any more seats, because they are just blockers, but the fact is that they are polling well and many disgrunteled ALP and even inner city Liberal voters will move to them, at least in the Senate. Despite the fact that his religious convictions give me the heaby jeebies, it has me wanting Steve Fielding to win again just to prevent the Greens from getting the balance of power. If that happens and if Abbot holds enough ground to stay a credible leader for the Libs, the ALP will have to work with one or the other of them to get anything done. Either way I'd describe the situation as "scary".
 
 
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Volkodav   2/20/2010 10:22:14 PM
On Abbot and Minchen, what really needs to happen is for the moderate Libs to grow some balls and tell the conservatives who is really in charge. Apparently the number of moderate MP's and Senators actually outnumbers the conservatives by 50 to 35. Had they not wet themselves when Wilson Tuckey (of all people) started stirring on the CPRS, Turnbull would have remained in charge. Personally I hope that Turnbull manages to take a few lessons about how to lead from his screw up last year, and stages a comeback at some stage. He's a highly talented man who was let down by his own political inexperience, but I hope that he has the intestinal fortitude to pick himself up, dust himself off and get back to it.
 
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Volkodav       2/21/2010 12:50:36 AM
He's a highly talented man who was let down by his own political inexperience, but I hope that he has the intestinal fortitude to pick himself up, dust himself off and get back to it.
 
Here here
 
There are a lot of people out there who's views are more right of centre than anything but need someone like Turnbull to convince them the zealots arn't going to run the show
 
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