Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Australia Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Hypothetical - Australia versus Portugul over Timor
Aussiegunneragain    10/1/2009 9:46:18 AM
Lets assume that East Timor stayed under Portugese rule after 1975 and therefore we were unable to negotiate a 50/50 settlement over the Timor Gap gas reserves like we did with Indonesia, prior to the renegotiation with East Timor this century. What would happen if one of the countries decided to develop the gas reserves without a treaty? 1. Would there be armed conflict or would it be dealt with diplomatically? 2. How would an armed conflict play out? 3. How would different players the international community react? 4. What would the likely resolution be?
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2
StevoJH       10/2/2009 12:31:05 AM
With a single squadron of F-16's, a couple of small frigates and a bunch of OPV's I don't think they could do much against the ADF militarily at sea.
 
Quote    Reply

Aussiegunneragain       10/3/2009 11:26:47 PM

With a single squadron of F-16's, a couple of small frigates and a bunch of OPV's I don't think they could do much against the ADF militarily at sea.

Neither do I, which is why I'm interested in the likely reactions of other international players.
 
Quote    Reply

Volkodav       10/4/2009 1:23:08 AM
Did anyone actually like Portugal enough to stick up for them?
 
Quote    Reply

gf0012-aust       10/4/2009 5:21:13 AM

Did anyone actually like Portugal enough to stick up for them?
they were tolerated during the cold war as they were still better than the communists.

spain had franco - portugal had salazar.

 
Quote    Reply

Volkodav       10/4/2009 8:50:51 AM
Pretty much what I thought, they were the basket case of Europe and only carried because they weren't communist.
 
Their military were a joke.
 
Their airforce operating T-38 as fighters, supplemented with hand me down Corsairs and Alfa Jets for strike into the 90's. Their Navy consisted of everyone elses obsolescent discards until the Meko 200PN's arrived mid 90's. Don't know much about their army but I do know their paramilitary police have lots of nice shiny toys to intimidate civilians with.
 
Even if they could have found a way to get the limited capability they did posses to our region what they had, which they could only afford through the charity of other NATO members, would not have made much of an impression on the ADF.
 
All together Indonesia would have been a far greater challenge for ADF in any dispute over the Timor Sea than Portugal could ever have been.
 
Interestingly Portugal and China are both trying to gain influence in Timor and may prove to be a thorn in our side in decades to come.
 
Quote    Reply

Aussiegunneragain       10/4/2009 9:11:05 AM
Actually after looking into the equipment status of the Portuguese in the late 70's and early 80's I'm not so sure that a bingle in the Timor Sea would have been a cakewalk for Australia. They had three Albacore class submarines (four until 1975 when they transferred one the Pakistan) so had they based one in ET it would have made it very hard for us to secure the Timor sea with sufficient surity to develop the gas reserves. The Portuguese A-7's would have also posed an all weather threat once they arrived in 1981. The gas reserves were at the edge of the range of the Mirage 111 so it would have been hard for us to operate major surface vessels there without exposing them to an unacceptably high risk of air attack. The A-7's also had the range to reach Darwin and I think at the outside Tindal, and had the warload to seriously degrade or even knock out an airbase. The only option for us would have been to pre-emptively hit their airbase with the Pigs, a risky move diplomatically.
I think that it would have been a case of neither country being able to secure the maritime AO sufficiently to develop the gas reserves. We certainly didn't have the capacity to invade ET and I can't imagine that the East Timorese would have been terribly amenable to engaging with us if we tried to turn them on the Portuguese when they knew that all we were after was the gas, so allies aside it could well have been a military stalemate which would have led to negitiations.
 
Quote    Reply

Aussiegunneragain       10/4/2009 10:34:14 AM
Interestingly Portugal and China are both trying to gain influence in Timor and may prove to be a thorn in our side in decades to come.
 
Interesting, we all know why China would be doing that but why Portugul?
 
Quote    Reply

Volkodav       10/4/2009 7:03:01 PM
For old times sake, national pride, access to the gas reserves, to punish Australia for intervening (decdes after we should have) when they failed to?
 
Basically I don't know and am just guessing.
 
Quote    Reply

gf0012-aust       10/4/2009 8:04:26 PM
to punish Australia for intervening (decdes after we should have) when they failed to?

there is a converse to that.  ie the portuguese were unhappy with australia having influence in TL.  thats why they insisted on having 
responsibility for re-arming and developing the TL military at independance.

a number of fretelin were co-located in portugal during the period of the independance movement.  there were certainly ET's who were more pro-portuguese than pro australian after we "sold them out" in the 70's.
 
Quote    Reply

Volkodav       10/4/2009 8:13:42 PM
 
Actually after looking into the equipment status of the Portuguese in the late 70's and early 80's I'm not so sure that a bingle in the Timor Sea would have been a cakewalk for Australia. They had three Albacore class submarines (four until 1975 when they transferred one the Pakistan) so had they based one in ET it would have made it very hard for us to secure the Timor sea with sufficient surity to develop the gas reserves. The Portuguese A-7's would have also posed an all weather threat once they arrived in 1981. The gas reserves were at the edge of the range of the Mirage 111 so it would have been hard for us to operate major surface vessels there without exposing them to an unacceptably high risk of air attack. The A-7's also had the range to reach Darwin and I think at the outside Tindal, and had the warload to seriously degrade or even knock out an airbase. The only option for us would have been to pre-emptively hit their airbase with the Pigs, a risky move diplomatically.
I think that it would have been a case of neither country being able to secure the maritime AO sufficiently to develop the gas reserves. We certainly didn't have the capacity to invade ET and I can't imagine that the East Timorese would have been terribly amenable to engaging with us if we tried to turn them on the Portuguese when they knew that all we were after was the gas, so allies aside it could well have been a military stalemate which would have led to negitiations.
 
The alternative is that if Portugal began fortifying Timor during the 70's and 80's, Australia may have been forced to enhance its cababilities in a number of areas to counteract the threat. The threat of A-7's bombing Darwin may have gotten the F-14 or F-15 over line as well as a 1980's E-3 purchace instead of the F/A-18 . The submarine threat may have seen Melbourne replaced by two or three light carriers with Seakings and Seaharriers and the FFG's giving way to KIDD class DDG's. The Army would likely have retained its 9 Battalion Infantry Division Structure but with enhanced forced entry capability i.e. a full brigade being converted to Airborne, another to Marine Expeditionary and the third being Mechanised / Armoured  together with a beefed up CAV and regional surveilance force to defend against SF incursions.
 
All very expensive but probably along the lines of what we would have been forced to spend had Suharto not dragged Indonesia away from Soviet influence in to late 60's.
 
Quote    Reply
1 2



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics