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Subject: Hypothetical - Australia versus Portugul over Timor
Aussiegunneragain    10/1/2009 9:46:18 AM
Lets assume that East Timor stayed under Portugese rule after 1975 and therefore we were unable to negotiate a 50/50 settlement over the Timor Gap gas reserves like we did with Indonesia, prior to the renegotiation with East Timor this century. What would happen if one of the countries decided to develop the gas reserves without a treaty? 1. Would there be armed conflict or would it be dealt with diplomatically? 2. How would an armed conflict play out? 3. How would different players the international community react? 4. What would the likely resolution be?
 
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StevoJH       10/5/2009 4:32:01 AM
As an alternative to an F15 purchase, were there "cheap" F4's available at the time? Since the RAAF leased a couple of them while waiting for the F111's anyway.
 
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Aussiegunneragain       10/5/2009 5:09:12 AM

  
The alternative is that if Portugal began fortifying Timor during the 70's and 80's, Australia may have been forced to enhance its cababilities in a number of areas to counteract the threat. The threat of A-7's bombing Darwin may have gotten the F-14 or F-15 over line as well as a 1980's E-3 purchace instead of the F/A-18 . The submarine threat may have seen Melbourne replaced by two or three light carriers with Seakings and Seaharriers and the FFG's giving way to KIDD class DDG's. The Army would likely have retained its 9 Battalion Infantry Division Structure but with enhanced forced entry capability i.e. a full brigade being converted to Airborne, another to Marine Expeditionary and the third being Mechanised / Armoured  together with a beefed up CAV and regional surveilance force to defend against SF incursions.

 
All very expensive but probably along the lines of what we would have been forced to spend had Suharto not dragged Indonesia away from Soviet influence in to late 60's.



I'd suspect that we might have improved our capabilities but not to that extent. A "silver bullet" force of F-15's in addition to the F-18's and a flight of E-3's would have sufficed to allow us to we control the airspace over the gas fields, and to allow the P-3's and ASW skimmers to operate without having to worry about any air threat.  Therefore the carriers wouldn't have been required. Perhaps in addition couple of I-HAWK batteries would have been useful to protect Darwin and Katherine from air attack.We wouldn't be invading ET so the army battalions wouldn't have been needed either. I'd say in the face of that the Portugeuse may as well have just given up because they wouldn't have been able to afford the same, even if they had access to it.
 
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Volkodav       10/6/2009 8:28:19 AM
During the late 60's, when Indonesia was seen as a Soviet alligned threat, the ADF had a raft of new and enhanced capabilities on the cards. Suharto's coup turned Indonesia away from the Soviets allowing Australia to dramatically reduce defence spending and can these capabilities, however the Portugese challenge, suggested in this post, would have justified continuing some or even most of these programs.
 
The Starlifter / Galaxy strategic airlifter would probably still have been dropped, as would the nuclear power / weapons program. What may well have proceeded is the two ocean navy with 3 carriers, 23 frigates / destroyers, an AOE, a 12000t amphibious ship; the Army would have got their fast landing ships to replace their four LSM's, HAWK SAM's, AH-1 Gunships, a supersonic trainer / light strike aircraft as well as an inflight refueling capability.
 
What did go ahead was the formation of airborne and mech infrantry capabilities, the replacement of the Centurion tank, which was in doubt for a while, and eventually, the replacement of the Mirage with a multirole tactical fighter.
 
Cause and effect, the programs were cut as the threat that justified them went away; introduce a new, but similar, threat and the programs have new justification.
 
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Hugo       10/10/2009 7:39:38 AM
Portugal currently has lower GDP per capita levels than Slovenia which isn't long non socialist.  It's not a wonderfully wealth society to be engaging in international troublemaking.
 
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