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Subject: Security beneath the waves
Volkodav    10/18/2008 1:11:46 AM
Sounds far fetched but could be done and expanding the size of the FEG could actually help fix the crewing issues by providing a greater critical mass of personnel to improve manning options on and off the subs. Patrick Walters | October 18, 2008 KEVIN Rudd understands one big thing about Australia's future defence: in an age of strategic discord and restless change in Asia, our navy must grow and deliver more strategic weight in the nation's defence. In the Prime Minister's view, this should dictate a larger and more powerful submarine fleet. By 2030, according to many of our top defence experts, evolving regional security trends will mean Australia's relative military power will have declined significantly. In their view, a new generation of more powerful submarines represents the best strategic investment Australia can make to guarantee our long-term security. Rudd has recently become the political champion of a bigger underwater force as the mainstay of a maritime defence system that will eventually include highly capable air-war destroyers as well as the new F-35 joint strikefighter. Rudd sees a larger submarine force as part of an essential maritime shield able to protect Australia's "sea-lines of communication" in a more volatile region. By 2030 East Asia will include some formidable regional naval powers led by China. China's future maritime capability is the principal concern; long-range forecasts show that in two decades its navy will be equipped with powerful nuclear-armed submarines as well as a formidable surface fleet capable of operating at a long range from the Chinese mainland. Our new larger conventional submarines will be extremely versatile, not just as strike platforms but in other specialised roles including intelligence gathering, special forces operations and anti-submarine warfare. But realising the prime ministerial vision for a larger submarine arm is a different matter altogether. Not least because, as events of the past week have rammed home, hard financial choices will have to be made in the Department of Defence during the coming years. The Rudd Government has pledged to maintain a 3 per cent annual real increase in the Defence Department budget. Going to a bigger submarine fleet from 2020 will dictate a lift in defence spending or the cancellation or postponement of some key defence equipment buys. The Royal Australian Navy has six Collins-class boats and an expansion to nine or even 12 next-generation vessels will increase pressure on an already overstretched defence-equipment budget. The lead times for such a complex project are long and Australia's leading submarine experts warn that the Defence Department must accelerate planning if a new class of boats is destined to enter service in the mid-2020s. Well before the finer details of a next-generation build are settled, the Government will have to make threshold choices on where the balance of investment will lie in our maritime defences between surface warships, submarines, and air power. For the PM and his key ministers, including Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon, this aspect of our long-term defence force structure is looming as a critical leadership test. One issue under consideration by defence is whether to accelerate the new submarine project to allow a new class of boats to enter service about 2020. Hugh White, Australian National University professor of strategic studies and Lowy Institute visiting fellow, has been a strong proponent of a considerably larger submarine force. "The key question is will we have enough to give us the strategic weight we need. In order to do that, we need a substantial increase in the size of the fleet," he says. "What we need to do is start getting more submarines before the present Collins class starts to leave service. At the moment there is not money in the defence budget to do that. "I think the most effective thing would be to build six submarines by 2025 before the Collins (is) replaced so that the six replacements become submarines seven to 12. But that would require a very quick decision." A host of complex issues still remain to be sorted out before Australian industry can plan with confidence on the new class of submarine to replace the six Collins boats built in the 1990s. More than three years after the Howard government announced its intention to sell the wholly government-owned ASC, builder of the Collins submarine, its future status remains in limbo. Within the next few weeks Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner will announce long-awaited details of a projected sale of ASC by the end of 2009. The sale conditions are expected to include a mandatory requirement for at least 80per cent Australian ownership as well as the possible retention of a golden share by the Government. But before ASC can be sold, the Government must determine a road map to protect and enhance ASC's existing assets, includi
 
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Cyrus       10/19/2008 11:07:35 PM




I've been wondering if something along the lines of a mix of 2 sizes number of larger ones the enhanced Collins and number of a smaller version like a design similar to or BMT's SSGT with a smaller crew then replace the Collins at a later date with new large design?


all of the major new sub designs I've seen are looking at subs acting as managers for dismounted weapons and sig systems

 

thats more efficient than a mixed size fleet of manned subs


So the only way around the amount of crew needed problem would lots of automation I guess?

 
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Cyrus       10/19/2008 11:10:58 PM
So the only way around the amount of crew needed problem would BE lots of automation I guess?
 
(I wish we could edit posts)

 
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Volkodav       10/20/2008 2:01:04 AM
With potentially 200,000 local jobs at risk with the current global economic crisis recruiting and retaining crews may no longer be such an issue.
 
I only hope that training and upskilling is included in plans to avert a recession.  Using the slow down to increase the number of trained tradies, techo's and engineers could help prevent any future skills shortage and it.s devastating effect on the ADF, not to mention the associated inflationary effect of out of control wages growth.
 
 
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Gecko       10/20/2008 3:12:30 AM

With potentially 200,000 local jobs at risk with the current global economic crisis recruiting and retaining crews may no longer be such an issue.

 

I only hope that training and upskilling is included in plans to avert a recession.  Using the slow down to increase the number of trained tradies, techo's and engineers could help prevent any future skills shortage and it.s devastating effect on the ADF, not to mention the associated inflationary effect of out of control wages growth.

 

I don't know about tradies and teco's but EA reported last year there was a 20% (from memory) shortage of graduating professional engineers to meet current demands let alone any future growth. Thats alot of economic decline to meet the skills shortage. Plus there is still the issue of engineers in the 5-15 years experience area where there is the cronic shortage. I doubt the economy will go so severely heads up that the shortage is meet (don't forget it's usually retail jobs that go first).
 
However, watch if government positions reverse the current trend of removing the requirement to submit selection criteria, that will be a precurser indication for the ADF that their skils shortage may be at an end.

 
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Volkodav       10/20/2008 4:34:09 AM
One of the issues with skilling, as I see it, is that it is so much easier to study business and management than it is to study science or engineering.  I am not referring to the academic difficulty of the programs but rather the availability of a delivery mode that suits people who work regular office hours.
 
If you want to study engineering or hard science you need an extremely flexible employer to study even part time. With business and management, not only are the majority of courses available outside of office hours, there are also a variety of intensive study option that give you the option to take on a full time study load while holding down a full time job.
 
A good way to fix the skills shortage would be to make it as easy for a tradesman or technician to become a professional engineer as it is for a clerk or receptionist to become a manager through completing a degree in business.
 
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Volkodav       10/20/2008 4:35:45 AM
One of the issues with skilling, as I see it, is that it is so much easier to study business and management than it is to study science or engineering.  I am not referring to the academic difficulty of the programs but rather the availability of a delivery mode that suits people who work regular office hours.
 
If you want to study engineering or hard science you need an extremely flexible employer to study even part time. With business and management, not only are the majority of courses available outside of office hours, there are also a variety of intensive study option that give you the option to take on a full time study load while holding down a full time job.
 
A good way to fix the skills shortage would be to make it as easy for a tradesman or technician to become a professional engineer as it is for a clerk or receptionist to become a manager through completing a degree in business.
 
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fall out       10/22/2008 1:19:48 AM




I think Walters is drawing a long bow...

 


LOL!!! These poor bloody journos can't win. When they bag anything Collins they get bagged and when they complement the company who built them they get bagged as well ;-).




Haven't you learnt by now about GF's opinion of journo's...you were asking for it particularly re subs! ;)
 
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Gecko       10/23/2008 5:09:49 PM

One of the issues with skilling, as I see it, is that it is so much easier to study business and management than it is to study science or engineering.  I am not referring to the academic difficulty of the programs but rather the availability of a delivery mode that suits people who work regular office hours.



If you want to study engineering or hard science you need an extremely flexible employer to study even part time. With business and management, not only are the majority of courses available outside of office hours, there are also a variety of intensive study option that give you the option to take on a full time study load while holding down a full time job.

I can't agree more. Engineering students get royally $%^&ed when it comes to timetables and flexibility, but its not something most students know when deciding on subjects. Their was a survey in the UK a while back and few people actually know what engineers do. I think marketing to school students would yield far better results.

A good way to fix the skills shortage would be to make it as easy for a tradesman or technician to become a professional engineer as it is for a clerk or receptionist to become a manager through completing a degree in business.

Technicians and tradies do already fill some of these roles or are given these opportunities (not talking about ADF here). The proplem is there is a shortage across the board. When a crane driver can earn almost as much as the engineer without the responsibility why would they change over? This is the reason there is such a marketing push in the UK to bring people over. A mixture of pay ignorance and visa sponsorship can make them more attractive than local candidates in some cases.
 
The ADF will continue to struggle until the private sector jobs become harder to get. Also they are on the back foot from the start with a streched out and seemily endless recruitment application process which bleeds applicants. Hence, why I made the comments about the councils. They have had to adapt to become more attractive to job seekers applications. When they reverse this, it means the skills market it becomming full.


 
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