| The recent stream of pro-Russian separatists out of Ukraine was unexpected. No one believed Ukraine would put up much of a fight, much less succeed against a Russian invasion dressed-up as a separatist movement. Ukraine was financially broke and had a reputation for government corruption. Much of its military equipment consisted of poorly-maintained Soviet-Era equipment.
So what turned things around? As I watched Youtube's Vice News (excellent coverage of Ukraine), it quickly became obvious. One only had to look at the two sides to understand what was going on.
One Russian Side: This faction broke down into two groups of people, the Russian Military and the separatists. While the Russians were few in number, they looked fit. However, the separatists seemed to consist of portly middle-aged men and women who loved Putin and reminisced about the good-old Soviet days. They didn't seem to know which end of their assault rifle to point at the enemy.
The Ukrainian Side seemed well-trained. It then occurred to me that Ukraine has been fairly active in overseas deployments, including Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, about 30,000 Ukrainian troops have participated in overseas deployments since 1992. Add to this the fact that until recently they were positioning themselves to join NATO.
In short, while the Ukrainian military has its deficiencies, it also has a core of troops who are well-trained and experienced. Add to this the support of a civilian population eager to avoid a return to the days of domination by Moscow.
The big question is this: What is Putin's next move? Will he send in more Russian troops to rescue the separatists or will he write them off and be happy with Crimea? Given that he has moved more troops to the border and called for an emergency UN meeting, things look ominous. |
