Very precise! (We are part of that division as well)

 

An invasion of Poland would demand an occupation of the Baltic States or Sct. Petersburg is toast and Kaliningrad a Lithuanian suburb.

Off course it can be done; but it will take time

 

That is just what Russia hates. They can't bully even their smallest neighbour. The European Nato members does have some oil - a cut off of Russian supplies will be nasty for German industry, but in a war situation there is oil for tanks, planes and ships.

Consider another factor: The Russian buy's goods from Europe for approximately 40% of their oil revenue.

A crippling of the European industry is likely to hurt the Russians as well.

 

Finally the only advantage Russia has is they have a lot of nukes. But this is not Europe - it is Nato.

 

That is not all: The Russian Navy is a fleet without a future.

The Northern Fleet is boxed in quite effectively - so effectively in fact, that the US find that they can cut back on spending there: The Seawolf Class is a  3 boat class - but could production start and turn them out in numbers?? Sure! Download the harddisk to Electric Boat and production will outstrip Russian production - till that time comes, the old LA's and Virginias are fully capable of dealing with anything they put up.

The Zumwalt has been cancelled, but could enter production any time - there has been talk of armour, ice reinforcement might be more usefull. But the Burke class is quite good ships, so untill ....

 

The Baltic Sea: Well I temped at a naval institution. In the lobby there was a display of all naval traffic over 500 tons i the Baltic. The Baltic Fleet will never leave port.

 

The Black Sea Fleet: Main Base Savastopol - in another country! Turks modernising their fleet. In my reading: The Turks are not satisfied with defending the Bosperus - war would make porperty value in Istanbul suffer - why let the fleet leave port in the first place - if you can help it.

 

The Pacific Fleet: Let the US Alaskan Coast Guard deal with them.

All very good points, Thomas. So much so, that I think the only way to continue this thread is to assume that Poland is on its own, as it was in WW2 (i.e. treaties, alliances, promises, etc don't pan out). If the west were to support Poland, the war would never even start. But assuming the Russians managed to bully Poland's allies into pacifiism, then the scenario becomes interesting.

 

 

The real problem is that Russians expand incrementally with small things

like Georgia that no one considers worth a fight and accumulate fait accomplis.

Hitler tried to do this but he had neither the patience nor the skill nor the desire.

As many posters have pointed out, the practicability of such an invasion for Russia is so low that the scenario has extremely little chance to ever play out in reality.

 

If you want and (admittedly only a little) more realistic scenario, I refer to this thread of all (4 years already !): h**p://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/30-24862.aspx

 

Historically, Poland was several times partitioned between more powerful neighbors, the latest time of course being 1939. It was once remarked (in 1919) that "The marriage of Russia and Prussia has been celebrated several times. Each time, the wine served at the ceremony was Polish blood". So at least there is a number of precedents, by contrast to Russia single-handedly invading Poland, of which there seems to be none (or would somebody correct me if there is ?)

 

A strategic alliance between Germany and Russia (plus probably other countries) also is not too far-fetched a scenario in the medium term.

 

The (very large) improbability which remains is that Russia and Germany would find a compelling reason to invade Poland again. In our days, neither ideology nor ethnic aggrandisement motivate European countries, neither Germany nor Russia.

 

"So at least there is a number of precedents, by contrast to Russia single-handedly invading Poland, of which there seems to be none (or would somebody correct me if there is ?)"

 

How about in 1920?

 

Also, Russia sacked Berlin in the Seven Years War more or less on its own which shows there are other such examples of aggression.

"Historically, Poland was several times partitioned between more powerful neighbors, the latest time of course being 1939."

 

Well, how about 1945? Poland did receive territory at the expense of Germany but it did give up it's eastern territory to the USSR.

 

 

"If you would bother to take a look at the Map,  the Russians could NOT invade Poland  !    Not unless they would take the Baltics first."

 

Did I not include a mention of a crossing of those countries in my original question?

 

It is not conceivable that Russia could stage ground forces in Kaliningrad and then use a command of the air above Poland to carry out a blitz from Kaliningrad to Warsaw? The US demonstrated the effectiveness of airpower with precision bombs in Iraq in paving the way for ground forces.

 

Could not the Russians not enhance it chances of success in Poland by first launching a diversion elsewhere?