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Subject: Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime
StateMachine    6/3/2006 2:12:56 AM
Well I've read interesting articles in 2 spots. http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20060602-020711-3341r http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060602/wl_mideast_afp/russiasyriaukraine_060602174103 And contrary to Yahoo's title, its article seems to actually backup the first. So a Russian naval base on the Syrian coast hosting the Black Sea Fleet projecting into Mediterranean and ringed by top-o-the-line SAMs providing a defacto umbrella of protection of Syrian airspace and coastline. The interesting thing is it makes total sense for the Russians. Why rebuild a costly port in Russia proper on the Black Sea after its lease with Ukraine runs out when you can move into the high rent district of the Med. and achieve strategic relevance. And Yahoo's got the commentary part right. Israel is not going to like that at all.
 
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StateMachine    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the strategic balance bigtime   6/3/2006 2:14:11 AM
*title correction* Well I've read interesting articles in 2 spots. http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20060602-020711-3341r http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060602/wl_mideast_afp/russiasyriaukraine_060602174103 And contrary to Yahoo's title, its article seems to actually backup the first. So a Russian naval base on the Syrian coast hosting the Black Sea Fleet projecting into Mediterranean and ringed by top-o-the-line SAMs providing a defacto umbrella of protection of Syrian airspace and coastline. The interesting thing is it makes total sense for the Russians. Why rebuild a costly port in Russia proper on the Black Sea after its lease with Ukraine runs out when you can move into the high rent district of the Med. and achieve strategic relevance. And Yahoo's got the commentary part right. Israel is not going to like that at all.
 
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HiloBill    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime   6/13/2006 3:34:18 PM
Intent is the hardest thing to prove in court and within the world community. But - especially as it relates to Russia & China - it is vitally important to understand intentions; the West is facing an unprecedented crisis which is likely to lead to our downfall due to our penchant toward wishful thinking and good-guy-always-wins mentality...many who direct the course of our nation security and defense seem to be doing their best at keeping their heads planted deep in sand with the hope and wish that the East doesn't intend us harm. Many comfort themselves with our ultra-sophisticated means of technical intelligence gathering thinking that it will ensure the West's continued security. But, one of it's major flaws comes when the facts on the "ground" are misinterpreted when it comes to intentions. Knowing capabilities (the "known" capabilities, anyway) without accurately understanding intent may be a formula for disaster.
 
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mustavaris    HiloBill   6/13/2006 3:37:56 PM
Why you´re so worried about Russian and China while we got Islamic fundies who are far more serious and actual threat?
 
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displacedjim    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime   6/13/2006 5:42:35 PM
Russian SA-20s at Latakia or Tartus would certainly throw an interesting wild card into planning for an air campaign against Syria. As it is, Syria's SAM air defense network is much more dense and better integrated than Iraq's ever was and than Iran's is. Add in the uncertainty and great capability presented by SA-20s along the northern coast, and it is even more potent. Obviously, due to our "ultra-sophisticated means of technical intelligence gathering" we'd know about Russia moving in before they even did it, and many months or more before their base was actually operational. However, I'd agree there could arise some scenarios where we couldn't know with certainty whether the Russians would join in Syria's defense if we did launch an air campaign against Syria, and that would have to make for some serious pucker-factor for our guys flying missions anywhere over most of Syria. While the mountains along the Lebanese-Syrian border would mask low-to-medium altitude targets to the south, I'd guess they'd have a clear view of anything above 25,000ft anywhere over the whole country, and even of low altitude targets over the whole northern half of Syria. In such a situation we'd cetainly need to try to pin down Russian intentions before executing our plan. Displacedjim
 
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tigertony    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime/DJ   6/13/2006 6:06:59 PM
1} Due to our "Ultra-Sophisticated Intelligence Gathering"???. Well now i stated all the way back to Mr Bill "Russia is still the USSR". They only thing which has changed "Is a name"!!!. So displacedjim tell me why we didnt open up a can of whoop-ass on KGB Putin???. He commited a blatent "Act Of War" in Iraq!!!. So tell me what consequences did he suffer "While we fought and died???". 2} Perhaps we should use more leverage as Mr Reagan used???. Perhaps we should get tough with the CCP???. Well KGB Putin can sell CCP resources,however the good ole USA buys all them finished products pouring out of all them CCP factories!!!. So them resources may make a few jobs.However the finished goods they sell at Wal-Mart create far more!!!. CCP can go elsewhere for resources,but can CCP sell all those goods to Putin???. Bring back the old Cold War "Because i sure felt safer then" and "That is pretty sad my friend" tigertony
 
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displacedjim    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime/DJ   6/14/2006 5:35:07 AM
I guess I missed the blatent act of war committed by Putin. Perhaps if you were more specific as to what he did, I could determine what consequences he suffered for it. Displacedjim
 
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tigertony    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime/DJ   6/14/2006 6:59:15 AM
DJ i suppose feeding Intelligence to the Iraqi Forces while we where engaging them "Is being our friend" or "Not an Act of War"???. I suppose providing Syria with its sophisticated AA network "Is not counter-productive to Israel and Future World Peace"???. I suppose arming all the worlds most radical regimes is not "Counter-Productive to Democracy"???. So tell me DJ "What has really changed since Stalin in the USSR"???. Putin opposes every effort we make in the Middle East,he arms Iran,Syria,CCP,and countless Anti-American regimes!!!. I notice the worlds terrorist thugs all carry an AK and a RPG,not a M-16 and the LAW!!!. I suppose helping Saddam remove his WMD just prior to our invasion "To make us look like a Jack-Ass!!!" is "Being our friend???". I wonder where all these IED'S exploding are really coming from??? CCP AND USSR!!!. Yes sir what friends indeed!!!. Again bring back the USSR "Because the USA and NATO knew how to deal with them!!!". And it wasnt by giving CCP or USSR record trade surplus!!! Yep i guess the Bald Eagle and NATO "Are better off with a Back-Stabbing Bear and a Red Dragon who paints themselves Blue???". And btw the US can ignore Putin's acts of war "But i will not,and I understand who the enemy's of Freedom still are!!! tigertony
 
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displacedjim    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime/DJ   6/14/2006 10:39:14 AM
Well, certainly anything dating rfom before 1990 is communist/Cold War leftovers, and hardly reasonable to lay at the feet of today's Russian government. This would include most of those AKs and RPGs, and Syria's IADS, for example. However, Russia has climbed back up the arms export ladder to again reach Number Two status, exporting about half as much as we do, and typically to the "other side" of us and our allies (primarily China, but also a little bit to Iran, Syria, and others), as wel as to not-enemies like India. Certainly from that perspective they're not doing us any favors (with the possible exception of creating business for our military contractors). I think assessments of the IEDs used in Iraq would show very little Russian or Chinese influence, and mostly just home-grown bomb-making techniques using (if anything) off-the-shelf U.S., European, and Japanese commercial technology. As for Russia helping remove Iraqi WMD material before the war, and/or feeding intel to Iraq during the war, I'm not aware of any actual evidence to that effect. Even if they did do these things, they would not be acts of war. As for Russia or China being our friends, I seriously doubt anyone (other than maybe a few hippie hold-outs from the '60s) is silly enough to think they are. Displacedjim
 
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tigertony    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime/DJ   6/14/2006 11:06:32 AM
1} When uncovering a weapons cache in Iraq or Afghanistan "Who did they belong too???" Answer: Russia and CCP!!! So when our brave die there "Whose bullets,bombs,or rockets are killing them???" Answer: Russia and CCP!!! 2} What was all that media frenzy about those Russian Intelligence reporting to Saddam???" Answer: Well maybe it was hype,but maybe the government suppressed truth???" Well it is funny how i knew about the "UN Oil For Food Corruption" when i saw articles on the WWW,then suddenly it is forgotten till needed after we invaded!!!. "Just ask John Kerry or GW!!!" 3} Only a few hippie hold-outs think Russia and CCP are our friends??? Well now since when does someone who thinks otherwise give 15% increases to its defense and pay the bills to carry it out??? Answer: The USA in WW2,and look at what happened afterward "The Cold War". And we didnt pay the USSR "We bankrupted them!!!". Well someone is rather confused today "And it aint me,lol!!!" Take Care DJ!!! tigertony
 
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displacedjim    RE:Russia pushing on in and changing the stategic balance bigtime/DJ   6/14/2006 2:53:39 PM
What is your point, TT? If it is that Russia is not our friend, I agree and already said I agree. I suggest so does most any thinking American. 1. Iraq manufactured its own small arms ammunition, and got most of its weaponry from the Soviet-era USSR, although I'm sure some amounts of weaponry found their way into Iraq from all over the world in the last decade, including from Russia and China. Therefore some of our casualties are certainly from weapons made in Russia and China, while most are from weapons made during the Cold War in the USSR and Warsaw Pact countries. 2. Yes, there has been media speculation regarding Russian intelligence supplied to Iraq, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if it is true. That kind of thing happens all the time during wars, and therefore it's likely that contributed to some of our casualties to some degree (although the degree of aid is hard to assess when we don't even know if it happened). 3. What? It turns out you're right, becuase now I am confused. What does Lend Lease in 1942-1945 have to do with whether anyone thinks Russia is our friend today? Are you suggesting somewhere in there that more than a few Americans think Russia is our friend--because other than fantasy-world college professors and deluded diplomats, I don't know who would. Or are you suggesting that regardless of whether anyone thinks they're our friends or not, we crushed them economically once and we can do it again anytime we need to--because that would be something I can agree on. Displacedjim
 
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