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Subject: Russian SSBN problems
ambush    4/28/2008 6:27:25 PM
From stratfor.com "According to U.S. naval intelligence, the Russian fleet conducted three strategic deterrent patrols in 2007 — two fewer than in 2006. While there are many potential aspects to this shift, none of them bode well for the Russian fleet." "The Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook published findings April 28 based on U.S. naval intelligence obtained under the Freedom of Information Act suggesting that the Russian navy’s strategic deterrent patrols decreased from five in 2006 to three in 2007. In comparison, the U.S. Navy conducts 50 or more such patrols annually. In the late 1980s, the Soviets conducted even more. This reversal of a slow climb from zero patrols in 2002 highlights the trouble Russia is still having with the sea-based leg of its nuclear deterrent." "The revelation that the slow, upward trend in SSBN patrols since 2002 (in the wake of the 2000 Kursk disaster, no patrols at all were conducted) dropped significantly in 2007 instead of rising — or at the very least sustaining itself — is foreboding. In terms of metrics, the strategic fleet is expected to play an increasing role in Russia’s nuclear deterrent, carrying as much as 30 percent of the nuclear arsenal in 2015. This shift calls into question whether the fleet can sustain its current (and painfully slow) tempo of operations, much less increase them." "Such a delay has many potential causes — a rise in maintenance issues or a delay in returning upgraded submarines to the fleet, for instance — but none of them would bode well. Delays in overhauls are hardly unexpected in Russian shipyards, but the Sineva upgrade was instituted as a stop-gap measure when Moscow’s penultimate attempt at a new submarine-launched ballistic missile was abandoned at the turn of the century. If those upgrades cannot be made in a timely manner, they begin to lose their raison d’etre, as they are a stop-gap solution and not the end goal. This is doubly troubling. First, the interim solution might not be implemented. Second, the long-term solution, the Bulava, remains deeply troubled."
 
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