Why Do They Bother?

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Subject: Why Do They Bother?
displacedjim 6/19/2007 11:20:08 AM

Kommersant of Russia is reporting that Russia will be selling Syria at least five (for starters?) MiG-31E and an undisclosed number of MiG-29M in a deal estimated to be worth $1billion. The five FOXHOUND are reconditioned from Russian stocks (the production line closed over a decade ago), but those MiG-29M are the latest version of the FULCRUM and would be new aircraft. I really am surprised that Syria would waste their money this way. Obviously if we go in, we'll sweep the skies no matter what they buy and I'm sure they know that. I'm sure this buy is aimed more at making some sort of statement to Israel. When will it get through to them that a few dozen modern aircraft won't change squat against even "just" the Israeli air force? Idiots.

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Yimmy 6/19/2007 12:28:34 PM

Believe it or not, Syria doesn't base their defence policy around the USA alone.

The Mig 25 and Mig 31 are probably the best fast jets to come out of the USSR, and the type has shown itself to be hugely successful as a fast recce platform, over the Middle East in particular. Remember when Arab Mig 25's acted with impunity over Israel because their F4's couldn't intercept them?

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displacedjim 6/19/2007 1:04:17 PM

Correct, that's why I said I figure it's a move aimed at Israel, not us. However, these aren't reconnaissance jets, they're interceptors. Furthermore, Israel would splash them within seconds of crossing into Israeli territory anyway. If they have any usefulness at all to the Syrians, I'd guess it's mainly the other way around: The Syrians are looking for some way to hold Israeli ISR aircraft at risk. Also, by all accounts, Assad is really torqued off by the ability of Israeli aircraft to perform supersonic passes untouched by Syrian defenses over his home in Latakia, and he's probably willing to try just about anything/everything to find some way to counter them.

This will be the first export sale of both the MiG-31 and the MiG-29M. If the rumored PANTsIR deal works out, too, along with the other recent arms buys, this is starting to actually become a significant modernization effort overall. In doing all this they owe a huge favor to Iran who appears to be fronting a major portion of the cash to pay for it all.

Hopefully the Lebanese will make good on their reported threat of releasing evidence of Syrian culpability in arming the terrorists in the recent fighting against the Lebanese Army. Unfortunately, I'm sure it wouldn't matter as I doubt we'd actually act on it anyway. Why change now?

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Yimmy 6/19/2007 2:02:22 PM

I agree with your view Jim.

However Syria can hardly just decide to not bother with their airforce, because Israel out classes them so badly. That is hardly a progressive attitude. And due to the Mig 25's successes in the past, I can well understand why Syrian elements would advocate the purchase of some Mig 31's.

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Bob 6/19/2007 2:46:52 PM

Also, by all accounts, Assad is really torqued off by the ability of Israeli aircraft to perform supersonic passes untouched by Syrian defenses over his home in Latakia, and he's probably willing to try just about anything/everything to find some way to counter them.

Hahaha. Bingo!

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Herc the Merc Well DJ 6/19/2007 8:53:19 PM

Try try again until u succeed. And the Taleban and Hezbullah have shown that USA USSR & Israel CAN be beaten. Blame the politicians on our side for showing weakness. Anyways the Russian systems are quite a bit better now -considering Chinese electronics will help a lot too. What Russia lacked was quality manufacturing and electronics--both have been reasonably corrected. if u look at the latest Mi-29K built for INdia the quality is great-check the welds.

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Shirrush Please don't miss the bottom line. 6/20/2007 8:47:59 AM

The Russians found a way to circumvent the UN sanctions on Iran. These jets, and the devil knows what other types of weaponry, are payed by Iran and will be transferred by the Syrians to their rightful owners.
Such jets have no usefulness in the tight WVR tossup of the Israel-Syria battlespace, but can be valuable in the BVR situations that could (will?) develop over the Gulf. The MiG-31 is also known to be optimized to go after cruise missiles, that will certainly be there in large numbers in the opening hours of any conflict involving Iran.
In return, Syria gets large numbers of large, long-range artillery rockets (Zelzal, Fajr, whatever...), with which it will attempt, in due time, to terrorize the Israeli civilian rear and to neutralize the few air bases of the IDF/AF.

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Shirrush This just in. 6/20/2007 5:01:55 PM

Rosobonexport official at the Le Bourget air show now denies such a deal is in the works.
There's no smoke without a fire...

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displacedjim 6/20/2007 5:23:15 PM

Rosobonexport official at the Le Bourget air show now denies such a deal is in the works.
There's no smoke without a fire...

True, they have. They quickly cam out in denial of the rumored PANTsIR sale, too. I've also read that one or more Russian government officials privately have confirmed the MiG deal. Apparently it's quite the buzz around Le Bourget right now. Perhaps it's all one big rumor after all. I think we'll find out pretty soon one way or the other.

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Bob 6/20/2007 5:39:46 PM

And the Taleban and Hezbullah have shown that USA USSR & Israel CAN be beaten. Blame the politicians on our side for showing weakness.

What do big, expensive Russian fighter jets - technological elements wedded to 3rd generation warfighting - have to do with a 4th generation fight?

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displacedjim 6/20/2007 8:20:04 PM

And the Taleban and Hezbullah have shown that USA USSR & Israel CAN be beaten. Blame the politicians on our side for showing weakness.

What do big, expensive Russian fighter jets - technological elements wedded to 3rd generation warfighting - have to do with a 4th generation fight?

Especially since neither the Taliban nor the Hizballah have beaten America.

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