What's next for Syria?

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Subject: What's next for Syria?
sofa 7/17/2006 2:42:53 PM

What's next for Syria? -In 6 months, Syrian position and leadership remains as it is. -Demonstrations in the streets for more action to support Hizbollah. -Demonstrations in the streets to stop supporting Hizbolloah. -Coup by Jordanian style moderates. -Coup by Hizbollah style extremists. -Israeli incursion from Golan into Syria as part of Lebanon campaign. -Israeli incursion from Bekaa into Syria as part of Lebanon campaign. -Israeli spot bombing of Syrian Supply routes into/out of Lebanon. -Israeli spot bombing of Hizbollah targets within Syrian. -Israeli spot bombing of Syrian Presidential palace or Defense HQ. -Israeli reduction of Syrian Air defenses. -Israeli snatch and grab of Hizbolloah witin Syria. -Public Iranian military presence in Syria. -US incrusion in to eastern Syria, 'chasing' some bad guys. -Missile from Syria fired into Israel. -Missile from Iran fired into Israel. -Missile from ship fired into Israel (from Syria, Hizbolloah, or Iran). I think Israel wants to avoid direct involvement with Syria. But will Hizbollah draw in Syria? Will Iran push Syria in? Can US influence events within Syria (coup)?

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Thomas RE:What's next for Syria? 7/23/2006 8:49:48 PM

I'm beginning to be less sure that Israel wants to avoid fighting Syria: 1. the Hizbulalala in Lebanon will resurface, if they aren't proporly interdicted - which mean putting a whole new face on Syria. 2. Syria isn't particularly helpful in Iraq. 3. The other arab nations will willingly sell Syria for a few years extra life to themselves. 4. The road connections to Lebanon seem all-right (bar a few bridges missing and the dent in the road). Why not put the pedal to the metal and travel to Syria?

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EW3 RE:What's next for Syria? - Thomas 7/23/2006 9:21:33 PM

Works for me. We might even be able to help a bit from Iraq. (SOFs, refuelers, ELINT, SIGINT etc).

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warpig 9/17/2008 9:25:31 AM

More rumors and bluster about a greatly increased Russian Naval presence if Ukraine boots the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol.

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Russian Fleet May Go To Mediterranean
by Martin Sieff
Washington (UPI) Sep 15, 2008

Russia is stepping up its rhetoric about redeploying its Black Sea Fleet to the Mediterranean if Ukraine pushes ahead with plans to evict it from its home port base of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula.

"Undoubtedly, the withdrawal (of the Black Sea Fleet) from the Crimea will affect Russia's security in the south. New bases in the Mediterranean Sea could make up for the departure," Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov stated Monday, RIA Novosti reported.

Ukraine's pro-American President Viktor Yushchenko has been putting the heat on Russia's leasing of the Sevastopol base in the month since Russian forces occupied one-third of Georgia in a five-day operation Aug. 8-12.

Yushchenko's policy has infuriated the Russians, who have dominated the Black Sea for a quarter of a millennium. Sevastopol is also a fabled fortress and hero city in Russian history that was only conquered after long, heroic sieges in the Crimean War of 1854-55 and against the British and the French, and during 1942 against the Nazis.

However, in 1954, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, who was himself Ukrainian, transferred the Crimean Peninsula from Russia to Ukraine.

Russia's current lease to operate the Sevastopol base runs out in 2017, but Yushchenko has demanded that the Russians file in advance all maneuvers and planned operations of the Black Sea Fleet with his government in Kiev, and the Kremlin looks unlikely to accept this demand. Yushchenko, who wants Ukraine to join the U.S.-led NATO alliance, also wants to charge Russia higher rent for the use of the base.

RIA Novosti said the Black Sea Fleet currently comprises 50 warships and patrol boats, and that it has 80 combat aircraft.

The most likely Mediterranean base for the Black Sea Fleet would be Tartus in Syria, which served as a maintenance port for the old Soviet navy during the Cold War. RIA Novosti said there had already been discussions in the Russian media about reactivating Tartus as an operating center for the Black Sea Fleet.

The news agency said that "about 10 Russian warships and three floating piers" were already based there. It said Russian engineers and construction crews were already at work enlarging the naval base at Tartus and that a new pier for the use of Russian warships was being constructed at nearby Latakia.

Syria was a strong Soviet ally for more than a quarter-century during the Cold War, and it has been boosting military ties with Russia again in recent years.

A few weeks ago, Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the Russian resort of Sochi, and military cooperation was a leading issue on their agenda.

If Russia were to base significant naval forces in Syria, that could have the effect of deterring or limiting Israel's ability to strike at targets in Syria because it might then run the risk of Russian retaliation.

Baranov did not restrict his comments to Syria and the Mediterranean. He also said Russia was still willing to continue its maritime naval cooperation with NATO forces. "I do not see why our relations with NATO should end over last month's events (in Georgia)," he said.

However, the Russian admiral also warned that Moscow was strengthening the Black Sea Fleet and that it was prepared to use its naval force to pressure Georgia to accept Russian terms to end the conflict in the Caucasus.

"We are learning the lessons of the naval operation to force Georgia to peace," he said, according to the RIA Novosti report.

Baranov said the Black Sea Fleet had been strengthe

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warpig 12/13/2008 2:57:58 PM

Sean O'Connor's latest SAM update shows what is supposedly (I can't tell from the imagery what it is) an SA-6 battalion out east, just south of Dayr az Zawr. If that's what it really is, that's quite interesting. They haven't put any SAMs that far east in a long time, if ever. I doubt it could be related to the nuclear reactor facility, because that was well to the north, beyond the WEZ of the SA-6, but still it is an unusual move. It remains to be seen if this is just a temporary deployment or something more permanent. I didn't see much of anything in the image that looked like any permanent construction.

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