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Subject: North Korea In Outer Space
SYSOP    3/6/2013 5:49:51 AM
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TonoFonseca    North Korean collapse   3/6/2013 11:58:18 AM

Last night I made a video on what I think would happen if the North Korean government collapses:

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WarNerd       3/7/2013 2:14:27 PM
Last night I made a video on what I think would happen if the North Korean government collapses:
Great – A PowerPoint presentation with background elevator music.
Your analysis misses a number of major logistical, political, economic restrictions.
Logistics -- Iran doesn’t have any Quds forces, or probably anyone besides a small embassy staff, in North Korea to ally with and support the Kims. Getting any aid to the Kim regime into the country after the fighting starts will be impossible if China opposes the regime because the last remaining access route by sea, through Chinese coastal waters, will then be cut.
Economic – North Korea is an economic black hole, well beyond a basket case, requiring 100’s of billions of dollars of investment before any return can be expected. Whichever country (China or SK/USA) gets stuck with the NK takes a major economic hit. However, the problems likely to result from failing to make the investment are worse. For this reason a purely internal revolution/coup within NK is the preferred resolution by both China and SK/USA.
Political – Besides the economic issues China does not want to make NK a province because:

1. NK exists to serve as a buffer state between China and the USA in Korea. This is much less of a problem than it used to be, but one that they still want to maintain as a fiction. They also have their experience of the ongoing problems with integrating Mongolia.

2. The ability to restrict the movement of economic refugees is much more difficult/impossible if NK is a province. Failure to do so will add to economic disruption and social unrest in the rest of China. Most of this is currently handled by NK.

3. China does not want to fight its major trading partners (USA, EU, Japan, and SK). NK is not one of their trading partners.

The preferred scenario is a revolution in NK, followed by a peace treaty with SK and concentration on internal reforms and economic growth.
The most likely scenario if North Korea attacks SK is that China declares themselves on the side of SK and the USA, and the Chinese army drives south to meet the allied armies coming north, then partitions NK the way Germany got split at the end of WWII.  This lets China keep at least part of a buffer state, without getting stuck with the whole tab.
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