Turkey has a decent military, though it uses mostly conscripts. I would give it to the Turks in a stand up fight, but if the Kurds prepared for and fought an effective guerrila war, then they could use the Turkish weaknesses to their advantage, and likely win.

I'd call the Turkish military a bit better than "decent". As for the odds, it would be better to consider the tactics of both sides; not just the Kurds. Given the history of the conflict, and the fact that the Turks would be fighting for the unity of their country, I doubt they'd fight much like the, oh, say, Dutch Army at Srbrnica. They'd be closer to the Russians, in Chechnya, only with far better motivated forces. I would not be at all suprised to see large parts of Turkish Kurdistan depopulated, and I speak as someone who while generally friendly to Turkey, has supported Kurdish self-determination for many years, now.

An impossible scenario. There will not be a Kurdish army to fight. As diplomatically Turkey will not let Iraq to be partitioned. As Turkish and American relations are very good, you can understand that they had reached an understanding. Turkey and Israel are the only reliable allies of US in the Middle-East. So US will never do something that is unacceptable by one of these countries. Besides, a Kurdish government can not survive without any outside influence. Barzani and Talabani hated each other coming from rival tribes. Tribal animosity will make them attack each other not very far from now. And when they do they again will seek Turkish support. Both of them still use theri Turkish passports to travel abroad given to them by Turkey several years before. Turkey may not be a world power but is a regional one. Nothing ever happens in Middle-East, Balkans or Africa without Turkey knowing it.

I don't it would be an "impossible scenario". Should the situation in Iraq deteriorate and become all-out civil war (following the transfer of power on 6/30/04), I could very easily see the Kurds sealing off their territory in the north and begin to sew the seeds of independence...this would then lead to intervention by the Turks. Is that too far-fetched to imagine?

"diplomatically Turkey will not let Iraq to be partitioned." If it ever comes to that, "diplomacy", Turkish or otherwise, won't stop it. The Turkish Army might.

If Iraqi kurds decide to expand beyond their borders by influincing neighbouring contries' kurdish populations, it would be a reason for military intervention by such countries.Turkey will not recognize a kurdish state in northern Iraq as we see Iraq as a whole.My belief is when Kurds feel that they can take away a part of Turkey and they will be assisted by other countries, they will try to ignite a war. The outcome of such war will be the destruction of ''kurdish army'', for they have no chance against Turkish air force and armor.

I think I understand why most of you feel that Turkey would mop-up against the Kurds...(superior military)...but while I agree to a certain point, wouldn't this be similar to when the "big-bad" USSR invaded Afghanistan? The ghanis did a pretty good job fighting on their own turf. Granted, it wasn't until the US started supporting them that they actually started inflicting enough damage to make the Soviets withdraw. What if Iran started supporting the Kurds in their fight against the Turks? Could this make a difference. (Again, the US would not get involved on either side in this scenario.)

"If Iraqi kurds decide to expand beyond their borders" And, if, assuming Iraq fell apart, Iraqi Kurds simply attempted to establish and independent Kurdish country, on the territory of **Iraqi** Kurdistan, alone? Official Turkish policy statements to the world, over many years, have said the Turkey would not permit this, and would consider the attempt justification for military intervention. There aren't many ways I see which could destroy the basis of American-Turkish relations. I don't see any support, at all, in America for dismembering Turkey. **However**, if Iraq does fall apart, and Turkey winds up trying to destroy an independent Kurdish state? The Kurds have been the only reliable allies of America south of Turkey. They've been the only people who, as a group, America has gotten on well with, and cooperated successfully with in various ways which have saved American lives. I don't think America would react well to a Turkish army moving south against the Kurds. I think it could cause severe strains on the relationship with America. Even destroy it.

Probably, USA and Turkey had figured out a common strategy in Iraq. Several months ago relations between US and Turkey was very tense. Now, the realations are very warm. That probably means they have achieved an understanding in Iraq. Iran had many internal problems. Besides there is a quite large Turkish population (26%) in Iran. There is no point for Iran to support Kurds as Kurds have no sympathy for Iran (because of religion Shi'a-Sunni). Syrian intervention is also out of question because of Turkey-Israel alliance. Militarily: Turkish army controls every Mountain Passes in Northest Iraq. After that most of N. Iraq is clear terrain. Turkish army knows the area very well (from their past operations against PKK in the area). Local Turkmen population supports Turkey. Turkish army is very experienced in counter-insurgency operations. If it comes to military, it will not take more than 1 week for Turkey to control the area. Besides these for Turkey, military solution is always the last choice. And Turkey is quite cabaple of handling the situation diplomatically.

Yessss. They have to. An independant Kurdistan is not only a necessity, but a birthright stemming directly from the right of peoples to self-determination. The Turkish invader's policy have consistently been to stiffle the legitimate aspirations of the region's indigenous peoples, and it has taken the might of the Red Army in the twenties, to establish a then-soviet, sort-of-independant Armenian state with a much-reduced territory, which in turn became a fully-fledged nation after the USSR popped out of the screen. Now it's Kurdistan's turn! Armenia as a nation seems to be based on three things: an alliance of sorts with their Russian correligionaries, a rather capable military that has proven it's willingness to fight, and, more importantly, an apparent willingness to understate it's territorial claims on vast areas now within Turkish, and also Iranian borders. A Kurdish statelet establishing itself around Zakho and Sulaymanyeh in the Iraqi Kurdistan, could likewise make public it's willingness to recognize Turkey's borders and it's sovereignty over Kurdish areas within Turkey, and thus engage Turkey on the diplomatic front, where the odds are much better than on the military arena. The Kurds have many friends, starting from the citizens of the democracies concerned about freedom and justice, through most of the non-Arab and the non-Muslim minorities and nations in the Middle-East, and ending with their former hereditary enemies in the region, the Armenians. Turkey wants more than anything else, to join the EC, and the Kurdish question is a telephone pole-sized thorn in it's side. Sitting down for talks with the relatively moderate Kurdish nationalists on the Iraqi side would doubtless improve Turkey's image in WE capitols.