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Subject: Nu'a, nu'a, nu'a!
Shirrush    1/3/2009 1:30:25 PM
T'seems that the ground ops have started about one hour ago, in a rather classical manner with a heavy artillery preparation. Good hunting and safe return to our troops!
 
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Shirrush       1/4/2009 3:48:34 PM

I can't think of any example where a guerrilla, or terrorist organization, operating with the co-operation of the local population, was ever defeated by a standing army. History has shown that "installed" regimes are usually temporary. I don't think you can negotiate reasonably with anyone who believes that "God is on His side". I did see on the news one Gaza woman cursing Israel and (Fatah leader) Mahmoud Abbas in the same breath, which means they no longer know which way is up. 
Well, you should wear a thinking hat. I know it's cold in Haifa Bay area these days, so warming your brain a bit may help. Its a biological device, so it's not going to become any faster if you keep it cold. Semiprocessors may gain conductance, but cells will congeal and freeze...
Our own guerilla organization, supported by the people and buttressed by the religious establishment at the time, was soundly defeated, twice, by the standingest of standing armies, the Roman one. AD 70 and ca. AD 128 should ring a bell, shouldn't they, or have you forgotten your own history? Bar Kokhba anyone?
There's also the famous example of the defeat of the Hashashin terrorist organization by the Mongols in 1256, and a few others from the colonial era in which the guerillas were wiped out by the simple istrument of superior firepower.
What these standing armies defeating popular guerilla rebellions had in common was, of course, their utter ruthlessness. These days, technology can substitute a lot of the said ruthlessness, and we're seeing that happening in Iraq, where incidentally the guerilla has also been helpful defeating itself by alienating its popular support base with too many massacres. The Hama"ss is not very different from the AQI crazies: they have assassinated, this week, 35 alleged Fatah supporters, and kneecapped another 75 of them. Additionally, their enthusiastic use of human shields is bound to somewhat erode the support they receive from the oppressed and occupied masses, sometime...
 
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swhitebull       1/4/2009 5:22:25 PM
>>I did see on the news one Gaza woman cursing Israel and (Fatah leader) Mahmoud Abbas in the same breath, which means they no longer know which way is up.<<
 
 
What a disgusting thought - makes you wonder why so many Gazan women have to cover up their entire bodies.
 
 
swhitebull
 
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Hugo    Yet again..   1/5/2009 4:47:20 PM
Unfortunately the periodic skirmishing has begun again with no long term relief in sight.  What to make of the long term prospects for Israel when it tried to find some short term relief?  I think some serious questions need to be asked of a populace that supports an organization demanding the annihilation of its enemy which also happens to be the home of 5 million people.  What do we, the West, make of a government popularly elected and yet holds, to us, such an abhorrent world view?  Are we really to critize Israel for killing civilians who are willingly used as human shields by terrrorists? 
 
I'm sick of this conflict though no doubt not nearly as sick of it as the Israelis.  Here's some things that I think need to happen.
 
1.  Israel declare its bordersprudently leaving out Gaza and taking those portions of the West Bank for which it has a significant population (possibly giving the Palestinians some consolation land on unsettled Israeli land - I know this will be unsettling to some
2. Unilaterally declaring two Palestinian States on what it has decided to leave them (you won't have any international support for this unless you leave them something to work with see point 1. )  You won't have any support from the radical Arabs because they don't think anything is worth having unless it has been won by the sword
3. Declare war on the Islamic Republic of Gaza allowing anyone who disagrees with Hamas to be safely transported to the Republic of West Jordan (insert applicable name).  Allow the PLO to do whatever they feel is appropriate to the Hamas supporters who flee
4. Shatter the political infrastructure of the I.R.G. cut off all aid and anything else that is being used to aid and abet those Israel is now at war with which is just about anyone remaining in Gaza
5. Remove from within Israel's declared borders the remaining non-Israeli Arab population giving significant (above market rates) of compensation to those leaving land, real estate etc behind.  The best thing to do would actually reach an agreement with Allies about accomodating those removed but this is dimplomatically impossible.  Some filled with cash may choose to emigrate while others can move to the W.J.R.
6. Point 5 also relates to East Jerusalem should Israel choose to keep it (which I feel would be prudent because I see no historical precedent for such an arrangement working)
 
This idea of periodically invading a radicalized population (that is expanding rapidly), instilling hatred into a new generation and then leaving thinking everything will be hunky dory this time around is hardly a logical reaction.  Einstein, who we can both claim, said that the definition of insanity was repeating an action and expecting a different result.  Time to change the game in the Middle East.  Either Israel accepts that its enemies wants her dead and act accordingly and pack your bags and repatriate (I'll house Shirrush and family).

 
 
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Hugo    Yet again..   1/5/2009 4:49:44 PM
last sentence should have read "...or act accordingly and repatriate."
 
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battar    Not invented here   1/6/2009 2:34:49 PM
If you were to suggest transferring the whole of Israel to the Palestinians AND hand them the keys to the bank, I think they would refuse on the grounds that this would be surrendering to a Zionist conspiracy. Out sheer pig-headedness, the other side would never agree to anything Israel suggest, partly because that would mean shaking hands - and co-operating - with the "Zionists". That, in radical Islam, is equivalent to eating bacon and eggs for Shabbat breakfast if you are an orthodox Jew.
 
During the first  intifada, an IDF officer was quoted as saying that if we wants to kill a Palestinian, all he has to do is walk up to him in the street and shake his hand.
 
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Hugo       1/6/2009 3:41:55 PM

If you were to suggest transferring the whole of Israel to the Palestinians AND hand them the keys to the bank, I think they would refuse on the grounds that this would be surrendering to a Zionist conspiracy. Out sheer pig-headedness, the other side would never agree to anything Israel suggest, partly because that would mean shaking hands - and co-operating - with the "Zionists". That, in radical Islam, is equivalent to eating bacon and eggs for Shabbat breakfast if you are an orthodox Jew.

 

During the first  intifada, an IDF officer was quoted as saying that if we wants to kill a Palestinian, all he has to do is walk up to him in the street and shake his hand.

  Are you responding to me Battar?  If so I am not suggesting you co-operate or acquise to anyone.  I am saying Israel needs to declare its borders and then make a commitment to defending them whatever they may be.  I would, were I an Israeli leader, leaver them something to work with because it is likely in your long term best intersts.  But the idea of Israel slowly but certainly surrendering a relative technological military advantage (their rockets becoming ever more sophisticated and thus the impact of terror) and most certainly a demographic advantage within the old mandate frontiers whilst at the same time expecting things to get better in the long run is, in my strong view, a hopeless outlook. 
 
Israel's friends aren't becoming any larger in number and you've become heavily reliant diplomatically on the United States and to a far lesser extent Germany.  The former has become less influential in your region and your primary enemy (in my view), Iran, has become far stronger in the last decade with that trend having potential to continue. 
 
I think you need to settle things whilst Israel is comparatively strong and how many more years/decades need to go by before it is realized that dimplomatic efforts are destined to fail.  This strength needs to be leveraged to forge long-term solutions in-line with Israel's long term strategic objectives which must include a clear and undisputable delineation of borders.
 
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battar    The logical song   1/7/2009 1:53:55 PM
Hugo,
           What you say makes perfect sense to me, or Shirrush, and other literate people who prefer to read the newspaper rather than read the Bible or the Koran.
No go and convince the Right wing Religious in Israel or the Moslem fanatics in Palestine (or the Republic of west Jordan) that just because they have a book which says they can have Jerusalem, Hebron, Paradise, or your head on a plate, doesn't mean they can't consider other, saner options.
The extremists on both sides will never let us do whats good for us.
 
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FJV    The extremists on both sides   1/7/2009 3:18:39 PM
The extremists on both sides will never let us do whats good for us.
 
As long as extremists are irrelevant and without influence and powerless, they are not going to stop us doing what is good for us.The problems start when extremists get enough power and influence to actually amount to something IMHO.
 
 
 
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PlatypusMaximus       1/7/2009 5:38:05 PM
I may have gottten selfish and lost perspective....BOTH sides want to drag me into a new dark age after this is settled?
 
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jastayme3       1/9/2009 12:08:50 PM




If you were to suggest transferring the whole of Israel to the Palestinians AND hand them the keys to the bank, I think they would refuse on the grounds that this would be surrendering to a Zionist conspiracy. Out sheer pig-headedness, the other side would never agree to anything Israel suggest, partly because that would mean shaking hands - and co-operating - with the "Zionists". That, in radical Islam, is equivalent to eating bacon and eggs for Shabbat breakfast if you are an orthodox Jew.



 



During the first  intifada, an IDF officer was quoted as saying that if we wants to kill a Palestinian, all he has to do is walk up to him in the street and shake his hand.




  Are you responding to me Battar?  If so I am not suggesting you co-operate or acquise to anyone.  I am saying Israel needs to declare its borders and then make a commitment to defending them whatever they may be.  I would, were I an Israeli leader, leaver them something to work with because it is likely in your long term best intersts.  But the idea of Israel slowly but certainly surrendering a relative technological military advantage (their rockets becoming ever more sophisticated and thus the impact of terror) and most certainly a demographic advantage within the old mandate frontiers whilst at the same time expecting things to get better in the long run is, in my strong view, a hopeless outlook. 

 

Israel's friends aren't becoming any larger in number and you've become heavily reliant diplomatically on the United States and to a far lesser extent Germany.  The former has become less influential in your region and your primary enemy (in my view), Iran, has become far stronger in the last decade with that trend having potential to continue. 


 

I think you need to settle things whilst Israel is comparatively strong and how many more years/decades need to go by before it is realized that dimplomatic efforts are destined to fail.  This strength needs to be leveraged to forge long-term solutions in-line with Israel's long term strategic objectives which must include a clear and undisputable delineation of borders.


Long-term solutions are impossible. This isn't Europe where they could just start a war and stop it according to the monarchs will. The only "long-term" solution is to ethnic cleanse Palestine which I doubt you are advocating.
That being the case, the solution is really to become a little bit harder and have more of a frontier outlook. Assume war to be a constant part of life, like crime. Perhaps distasteful, but if you wish to live there, you have to take war for granted. Not that Israelis are "soft"(and yes I know the old pun about prickly on the outside and sweet inside), but that they are perhaps(like Americans) to hopeful for their own good.

 
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