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Subject: The Bush doctrine HUGS the Iranian bomb
Ezekiel    12/9/2007 12:25:19 PM
What this intelligence has done has effectively neutralized the military option in Bush's last year. For whatever reasons the Bush doctrine is dead and buried with the two evil axis getting hugs and of the day. Bush just wrote Kim a nice letter to make sure he dismantles the nukes he was never supposed to have. And Iran is now being dealt with in detante rather then strategic dialogue, given a diplomatic pass. What this means for the future of the region and Israel is mind blowing. Israel has NO CHOICE, and the Israeli public will not allow for a nuclear Iran... so what is the future of this region when the paradigm is an Israel military engagement of Iran... How does this play out? WHere will America stand once such an engagement occurs? And the finale will Israel prove successful and at the same time retain the special relationship with US after all is said and done???
 
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Pseudonym       12/16/2007 9:06:24 AM
"The special relationship with the US looks more and more like it's history."

So we can stop wasting billions of dollars on Israel that you could get yourselves by raising your own damn taxes instead of having us subsidize your nation while you say we are abandoning you because we aren't attacking the entire Middle East now that the Democrats have forced us out of a war footing.

When we cut off the money and military aid and leave you in the middle of a Cuban Missile Crisis with Iran, THEN you can say we abandoned you.
 
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Shirrush    Alliance and interests   12/16/2007 11:37:08 AM
Let's get on solid ground with that, cut down on the emotions, yeah?

- Israel and the US were not allies at the time of the USS Liberty incident. There were a friendly relationship and a Cold War going on, but Israel was not expected to mind US interests at the time.
- There's no rational basis to the hostility of Iran towards Israel other than the Mullah's eagerness to talk the Arabs' talk (hatred), and to walk their walk (jihad) in order to make them amenable to their imperial plans. So far, this is working, although there still is a widespread wariness, among Sunni Arabs, of the said plans, which clueless US policymakers read as the "atavistic Arab-Persian -or Sunni-Shi'ia- hostility" that exists only in their ignorant and gullible minds.
.- Likewise, there was no rational basis either to Hamman the Wicked's plan to exterminate the Jews of the 5th century BCE Persian Empire. According to the Book, he and 70,000 of his supporters died trying. Go figure!
- Israel's strategic interest is getting Iran back on its side as a major trade partner in its area. All this would take is a regime change, since most Iranians would like this to happen too. US (Condi's) policy is to attempt to build an Arab-Israeli axis against Iran none of the protagonists finds doable or even palatable (see above). This is already failing, bigtime.
- The Mullahs with nukes and the means to deliver them (which there's no doubt they already have) will have the means to remain in power forever.
- The Mullahs in power and engaged in a protracted, static shooting war against foreign nations will have the means to remain in power forever. Iranians are as patriotic as we are, perhaps even a little more, and the Mullahs will engineer the war need against a foe that cannot defeat them, if they feel nothing else will keep them in power. It has worked for them previously: if they engage Israel while the US sits on the fence, they risk very little as only their Syro-Hizbullah proxies will do the dying for them.
- The only way tiny Israel can hit Iran's huge nuclear effort is not by conventional means, if I am to believe the poorly substantiated rumor that my country has nuclear weapons, and not only the much cheaper reputation of having them. Notwithstanding the enormous risks, doing this goes against Israel's strategic interest, see above.
- The only way to prevent the Mullahs having nukes and a free hand to do much, much evil is a concentrated, decisive and swift conventional strike on the regime, its IRGC goons, and their weapons infrastructure, sparing as many Iranian Army troops and civilian infrastructure as possible. Only the US has the means to do that and to save countless lives, mostly of Iranians! It worked for Serbia, where America had much less at stake than in the ME.
- Now we know that America won't do it. Too bad.
- The United States of America's founding fathers cautioned against foreign alliances. Americans remember this, and may vote accordingly.
- The US aid to Israel, with its many strings attached, is increasingly viewed, by Israelis, as a hindrance to development and an unacceptable breach of sovereignty. Refusing it, however, would necessitate putting the entire Israeli economy on a war footing, something that nobody wanting to be elected would do at present.
- The US taxpayers money sent away to Israel as military aid invariably ends up in the pockets of US weapons manufacturers, and as American workers' salaries as well.
- The Israeli arms manufacturers are therefore kept on a kosher, no-pork diet, and this apparently keeps them lean and competitive, and thriving.
- For some Americans, the price of gasoline is more important than America's role as a superpower.
- Many Americans object their country being a superpower. They always have, and always will.
- Americans holding both of the above views would very easily uncork Alaska and withdraw (in disgust) from this whole unsavory ME business. Israelis should not have any difficulty understanding and even identifying with this.



 
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Shirrush    Yellichink   12/16/2007 11:48:05 AM

Given the total number as well as population density of Ashkenazi Jews in Israel, it is a good policy for Israel to develop replacement and renewable energy source (possibly even better water desalination process), so that, when oil is running out, Israel will become the new gold mine to the US, hence reverse the US foreign policy in Israel's favor.

Yelli, my usually level-headed scientist friend at Ben-Gurion U is lyrically enthusiastic about what's being done next door with water manufacturing and renewable energies. Yet, she's not the least Ashkenazia, and nobody in the Israeli R&D community even cares about who is and who isn't Ashkenazi!
Also, technological advancement nowadays is international in essence, and there's no political gold mine in it for anybody in particular.

 
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rb_martin    Ezekiel   12/18/2007 2:33:06 AM

"- The only way tiny Israel can hit Iran's huge nuclear effort is not by conventional means, if I am to believe the poorly substantiated rumor that my country has nuclear weapons, and not only the much cheaper reputation of having them."

Does this help substantiate the "rumor"?

h*tp://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/isnukes.html
h*tp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/index.html
h*tp://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Israel/index.html  
 
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2 Eagle    No win situation   1/22/2008 5:15:06 PM

What this intelligence has done has effectively neutralized the military option in Bush's last year. For whatever reasons the Bush doctrine is dead and buried with the two evil axis getting hugs and of the day. Bush just wrote Kim a nice letter to make sure he dismantles the nukes he was never supposed to have. And Iran is now being dealt with in detante rather then strategic dialogue, given a diplomatic pass. What this means for the future of the region and Israel is mind blowing. Israel has NO CHOICE, and the Israeli public will not allow for a nuclear Iran... so what is the future of this region when the paradigm is an Israel military engagement of Iran...

How does this play out? WHere will America stand once such an engagement occurs? And the finale will Israel prove successful and at the same time retain the special relationship with US after all is said and done???
If the Israelis allow a nuclear Iran, they may suffer an attack. MAY, not will. If they preempt and attack first they will lose the diminishing support they have left in the US and the rest of the world.
 Iran could use their anticipated nuclear status like N. Korea and milk it the same way. For Iran to Nuke Israel would be mutually catastrophic and devastating for the whole area. I do not venture a guess as to what other countries positions would be in such a conflagration since many favor the Arabs.
It's hard to guess what type nuclear weapons would be employed. I would assume Israel would use clean and Iran whatever they had, if it went that far.
I believe that someday it will have to come to something like this because nothing else has worked. I also think it would be extremely destabilising to the world...to oil, the markets, etc.. and it could lead to larger scale wars involving other countries. It seems like a no win situation.
 
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2 Eagle    No win situation   1/22/2008 5:38:22 PM

As my wife is Jewish I take great exception to any insinuation that the US is not 100% behind the State of Israel. 


Do you really believe what you said...100 %?   Be for real, that's ridiculous. So what if your wife is Jewish? How does that affect the worth of your opinion?
 
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Ezekiel       1/24/2008 4:23:57 AM
There is no question that Israel once again will be alone in facing a threat that is global in nature. insidious in it advance towards dominance and the mother of todays armies of Islamo-facism. Israel will be once again cast as an aggrssor, diplomatically isolated and regarded as ungrateful to their American friends. But it must be done by this country who is in a tough neigborhood where you get no Second chances.
 
I believe that The US must and should take the lead in this, they have the resources, the political clout and the obvious motivation to deal with Iran.... It is a dissapointment that the Bush doctrine wasn't treated as a doctrine but rather a policy that was enforced with convenience rather then with rigor and fortitude as we see with the Iranian threat. If you are the sole superpower, and you are engaging in a war against Islamo-facism and then subsequently you are outsourcing real threats to the state dept. and engaging this threat with detante diplomacy instead of gunboat diploamcy...this ensures an intensification in the long-run of the conflicts.
 
Israel will do it, but sadly will receive if succesful no glory only a little more breathing room, and will actually  be once again marginalized on the world stage, as it was when it dealt with osirak, and reagan's subsequent arms freeze to Israel.
 
 
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Darth Squirrel       2/14/2008 11:24:58 PM
   When the time was right to smash Islamic terrorism it was the US that blinked.  The winning strategy on 9/12/01 (succintly put for brevity and readability) was as follows:
 
   -   US crash military build-up
   -   US emergency expansion of domestic oil production and refining capacity
   -   US strikes Afghanistan
   -   US strikes Iraq and removes regime and enlists Turkish military help to do so
   -   While Iraq is wrapping up US Navy/Air Force/SOCOM supports Israeli strike to eradicate Lebanese-based terrorists
   -   US strikes Iran and removes regime
   -   US threatens so-called allies in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan with diplomatic freeze-out and internal political and economic destabilization to dissuade export of virulent Islamism
    
   Israel would never have to fight Syria; once it was clear Iran was getting the sledgehammer Syria either conforms or implodes.   Removing Iran and coordinating with Israel against the Lebanese terrorist pot luck bastards would have shocked the world and let the backstabbing facilitators in Saudi and Pak understand that the US was serious about ending Islamic terrorism. 
 
   Hitting Afghanistan and Iraq was the predictable American half-measured response to 9/11.  The kingpin sponsors of terrorism are still in place and gaining in relative and absolute strength.  At first the Israelis thought the US would finally take decisive action, but once it was clear that American will was weak they had no choice but to fall in line with that.  Why else do you think a hard-case like Ariel Sharon would dither around while Muslims rocketed and suicide-bombed his country?  He knew he had zero American support for doing anything else. 
Consider that if you question certain Israeli acts, you can often find an American corollary that preceeded it:
 
Israel - sells advanced arms to American enemies like CHINA
US   -  been selling advanced armaments to sworn enemies of Israel in vast quantities for decades
 
Israel - sells advanced technology, much of it American-derived, funded, or codeveloped, to American enemies, especially China
US - sells everything conceivable to China, and what they won't sell they refuse to take necessary action to prevent the Chinese from stealing.  The FBI has said that Chinese acquisition of the highest American technology through espionage and cybertheft is both "inevitiable" and "unstoppable."
 
I don't condone the Israeli actions, but I take a close look at my own country before I criticize others.  Battar is acutely correct when he notes that the real danger of an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability is the "non-attributable terrorist" event that is sure to come, eventually. 
 
Since I will be widely panned, allow me to lay out a preemptive defense of my above strategy.  Undoubtedly I will be called a fool, a simpleton, and worse (by some) for failing to understand how the US does not have the resources to accomplish the above, how we can't take on the whole world, etc etc.  To those who say such things, you have a wrong way of thinking.  My points:
 
   -   The current strategy has not significantly impaired global terrorism or its primary sponsors (admittedly Al-Qaida is rubbish but the surviving hand shall procure another sword with ease).
   -   The imperatives of a nation are not achieved by asking the question "What goals can I accomplish with X resources?," but by asking " What resources must I marshall to achieve X goals?"
   -   The losing American strategy against terrorism is emboldening far more powerful enemies to exploit the weak will of the US to dangerous strategic advantage
   -   The complete dereliction of US leadership to secure a greater measure of independent oil production and refining capacity is a strategic divisor worsening the above problem.  Did you know that the United States imports a greater percentage of its oil today than on 9/11/01?  Did you also know that the US imports 13% of its refined gasoline as well?  Do you find that acceptable?
 
I believe most of us here have both the will and d
 
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Ezekiel    The bear hug   9/26/2008 7:31:48 AM
Bush refuses Israeli action as reported in the guardian 
 
 
 
As the Iranian midget brazenly stated at the U.N. that Israel will fail and die. As this country is actively arming and training terrorists all over the world. Kills U.S. troops in Iraq, is half way to a bomb....and what has BUsh done, he has put handcuffs of Israel.
 
 

 
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jastayme3       9/26/2008 1:16:32 PM
One nuke isn't enough. There have to be enough built up to overwhelm potential counters. The Iranians desire to destroy Israel may be great, but I doubt it is great enough to make them desire to try to destroy it, fail, and get beat to a pulp for nothing. With
ABMs set up and a good supply of bunker-busters Israel can deter such things for long enough.
 
This is a side note, but I have often wondered that the Iranian dictator takes American's sense of honor so much for granted. Here he is going to New York(the second promised land) and doing his thing, for all the world like a romanticized bedouin visiting the tent of his blood enemy, except in that case better manners are expected. Does Ahimajabad really think no Jew in all of New York can handle a sniper rifle?

 
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