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Subject: Thank you CIA Part 2 - Broken '/' from 1st thread
swhitebull    12/4/2007 4:30:06 PM
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swhitebull       12/4/2007 4:32:00 PM
Shirrush,  I just moseyed on down to Debka for their assessment of the NIE, and what it means for Israel. How much stock do you place in them on this subject? They are usually alarmist, with their own agenda, but it seems to me to be a pretty good initial take on the implications of what's going on here in the States, and for Israel.
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Shirrush    Hhhhh! (sigh!)   12/4/2007 5:00:47 PM
The other thread works fine for me. Are you using Internet Explorer or something similarly unkosher?

I just hit You're right, they take a somber view of recent developments in the US-Israel relationship.
In light of the humiliating, Saudi antisemitism-driven treatment inflicted on our unpopular yet elected leadership by Mrs. Rice in Annapolis, this all of sudden makes a lot of sense to me.
I also agree with debka that we're in an emergency, and that we should do what sovereign countries do in such situations.
Do you read French? Menapress has a similar, but a lot more balanced and less anguished analysis on this today. They tend to stress the fact that lame POTUS G.W. Bush has been powerless to purge his own administration from his own bitterest political adversaries, that are hard at work undermining his credibility, inter alia by making the Bush White House an unreliable partner to anyone on the international scene.

The mood here in Chelm: "The Last Days of Saigon".

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sentinel28a       12/4/2007 8:27:40 PM
Shirrush--don't tar all Americans with the same brush.  We helped you out considerably during Yom Kippur, and ran into a lot of trouble because we did.  (Not that the Arabs gave a damn anyway, but you know what I mean.)  There were a lot of Americans who died getting Israel it's independence.  And the railroad tracks to Auschwitz were bombed; the Germans repaired them, as was their wont to do.  I agree that not enough was done, but it was Patton's tanks that rolled into Dachau, not anyone else's.  So sky down, big chief: there's a lot of Americans who stand behind Israel.  Just because our intelligence agencies are staffed with fools doesn't mean that the entire nation will abandon you.
In any case, Israel is more than capable of taking care of itself.  You think the Iranians are fueling a missile, feel free to pop them with a cruise missile or a Jericho.  The rest of the world will condemn you publicly and privately thank God that you did it.
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VelocityVector    Shirrush   12/4/2007 9:27:47 PM
The mood here in Chelm: "The Last Days of Saigon".

USS Liberty.  Lavi.  Etc.  Nations do what they perceive to be in their own self-interests.  Deal with it.  Your country will act accordingly given developments.


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Ezekiel       12/5/2007 1:51:58 AM
This will go down as a shameful moment in the bush presidency and the US  in general. Bush I always felt was not a very good president, but his bush doctrine would be his legacy, and if he were to deal with Iran before he left office, no matter his bumbling rhetorics, his staged photo ops = "we have won the war", N.Korea going nuclear, his lack of imagination when solving domestic issues, he would go down as a great President. But now with this, it looks as though he is passing the buck to the next guy, and leaving Lebanon to fend for itself. What a paper tiger!!!!
For Israel the consequences are truly grave, now they must deal with a US who will be opposed to an Israeli pre-emptive attack. But in my estimation it means greater glory for Israel, not to say that this is the guiding light in this situation....but Israel will have no choice 12 months from now when it is either the single greatest state sponsor of islamo-facists having the complete know how to obliterate the Jewish State or not. For me this was the final stroke concerning Goerge W., whenever my friends said anything about him, brushed him off, I always said the Bush doctrine is his legacy, but he has in the past 2 yrs destroyed his own doctrine in politiking, meaningless detante, and letting the state dept provide his agenda. It was all about Iran and now W has shrank from the challenge and he will no longer go down as a great American President and provided Israel with the greatest of challanges in thwarting the nuclear ambitions of Iran by itself.
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Shirrush       12/5/2007 4:57:55 AM
Israeli defense analyst David Eshel weighs in.
My point exactly. The IC idiots have done a good job handing the IRI nothing less than a victory.
Read it all, it's worth it.

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sentinel28a       12/5/2007 6:45:23 PM
Bush got burned on Iraq--remember how we were sure there were WMDs there?  (That was an NIE too, I believe.) He's gun-shy.  If he didn't have the San Fran crowd in Congress threatening to impeach him if he farts wrong, he might not be so slow to react.  Though he is saying we should keep the pressure on, and even the EU (and France!) agrees.  That's a hell of a far cry of saying "Ah, don't sweat it, lil' Israeli buddies! Them Iraynians will never hurt ya!  They're kind, peaceloving folk!"  He's saying just the opposite, matter of fact.
Sanctions are slow, they take time, and they aren't my favorite mode of coercion.  However, realize this: airstrikes will start a war, they won't end one.  We can't invade Iran, not with the forces we have.  We can blow the snot out of their nuclear program and cripple their air force, but it won't depose Ahmadinejad or destroy the mullahcracy.  That rests on the Iranian people, which is why we should tighten the sanctions and fund (or at least assist) anti-mullahcracy groups.  We should definitely reserve the airstrike option, but it should be the last option, not the first.
In any case, Israel doesn't need us.  The Heyl Ha'avir could wreck Iran without our help.  Hell, throw a Jericho at them if you like.  One of the great things about Israel is that you guys have never given a damn what the rest of the world thinks.  Well, don't let it stop you now.  You guys did a beautiful job on Syria; I have every confidence that you can do the same with Iran.  Don't listen to Congress or, if necessary, the President, and certainly not our abysmal media--listen to the American people.  I think you'll find you have a lot more friends here than you think.
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Ezekiel       12/6/2007 3:02:04 AM
An extremely accurate policy paper describing the error and fallibility in the Intelligence assessment.
I hope the link works....
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JIMF       12/7/2007 3:16:57 PM
I believe the U.S. should have amended our then highly restrictive immigration laws in the 1930s to allow German and other European Jews to enter the U.S.  That issue, not the bombing or lack thereof of German rail lines, was where the U.S. was clearly at fault.  Roosevelt never proposed legislation along those lines because supposedly he understood it would never be passed by the Senate.  Nevertheless, IMHO he should have made the attempt.
Barring some type of "Gulf of Tonkin" type incident, or a dramatic reassessment of the threat based on incontrovertible evidence I don't see an attack on Iran by the Bush Administration.   In fact the democrats are talking about impeachment if he does initiate air attacks.  
As Sentinal suggests Israel is perfectly capable of defending herself, as she has proved on numerous occasions.  As an ally we will continue to provide the toys necessary for the success of those operations.   
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Herald1234       12/7/2007 3:50:29 PM
I thought I had wriiten everything that I could on the NIE, but as i resaearch the garbage that went into it, the more I'm convinced that it is a combined CIA/State Department political hatchet job to seek revenge.
For example, guess which two idiopts were consulted in drawing up the estimate?
Here's a hint.
I agree that they are the Three Stooges*of the US Intelligence community.
*No disrespect intended to the comedic geniuses of Howard, Fine , and Howard, who simply are the funniest guys there are, outside the Marx Brothers.
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