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Subject: Thank you CIA Part 2 - Broken '/' from 1st thread
swhitebull    12/4/2007 4:30:06 PM
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Shirrush       12/7/2007 3:56:12 PM


As Sentinel suggests Israel is perfectly capable of defending herself, as she has proved on numerous occasions.  As an ally we will continue to provide the toys necessary for the success of those operations.   

 
Yeah sure. So we get these B2's and F22's, right?
 
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Herald1234    Typos galore corrected.   12/7/2007 3:57:11 PM

I thought I had written everything that I could on the NIE, but as i research the garbage that went into it, the more I'm convinced that it is a combined CIA/State Department political hatchet job to seek revenge.

 

For example, guess which two idiots were consulted in drawing up the estimate?

 

Here's a hint.

 

link
 


 

I agree that they are the Three Stooges*of the US Intelligence community.

 

*No disrespect intended to the comedic geniuses of Howard, Fine , and Howard, who simply are the funniest guys there are, outside the Marx Brothers.

 

Herald  



I checked out the third nitwit as well. he's a pro-Saudi stooge.

Herald 
 
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Ezekiel    the superpower goes home for a nap...   12/8/2007 11:43:25 AM
Sentinal

Relying on Israel once again to deal with a mess that involves the whole world, is not shall we say "fair". But when it comes to the Jews I have realized that "fair" is usually the first thing thrown out of the window when involved. I agree that Israel would if necessary shoulder the load and destroy the immediate threat of iranian nukes. Let it be known that Israel is not just solving a problem for their national security, but for the entire region, and finally the world. When in the history of the world has a nation been a beacon of progress when they're pronounced enemy is the Jews. We saw the last one that ended up bringing the war to the world, no matter how much the world attempted to placate nazi germany. Iran is no different, it is a threat to everyone who does not pronounce muhammas as his/her messenger. Even more you better be a certain kind of muslim as well.

America passing the buck, is reprehensible considering it has a direct interest in the long term stability of Iraq being its care takers. Instead the united state has gone the way of the state dept. forging short term alliances with muslim despots in order to stabilize iraq during an election cycle. All short term thinking, if America is the lone super power the benign hegemony taking care of the world....this is an example that maybe that isn't such a good thing. And. well that the point isn't it. This estimate has shown the Israeli's that maybe America isn't so reliable. I for one think this in the end will turn out good for Israel, in the sense that it will force it to act unilaterally by itself, and fell the consequence of missiles and isolation, that will finally show that little country that normalization of the Jewish state for the past 80 years has been an abysmal failure, that the Jews are " a nation that shall dwell alone." FInally forcing the Jews to embrace their uniqueness not for uniqueness sake, but it being their only resort for survival....depend only on yourself and no one else.

 
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Shirrush       12/8/2007 3:08:59 PM

Sentinal

Relying on Israel once again to deal with a mess that involves the whole world, is not shall we say "fair". But when it comes to the Jews I have realized that "fair" is usually the first thing thrown out of the window when involved. I agree that Israel would if necessary shoulder the load and destroy the immediate threat of iranian nukes. Let it be known that Israel is not just solving a problem for their national security, but for the entire region, and finally the world. When in the history of the world has a nation been a beacon of progress when they're pronounced enemy is the Jews. We saw the last one that ended up bringing the war to the world, no matter how much the world attempted to placate nazi germany. Iran is no different, it is a threat to everyone who does not pronounce muhammas as his/her messenger. Even more you better be a certain kind of muslim as well.

America passing the buck, is reprehensible considering it has a direct interest in the long term stability of Iraq being its care takers. Instead the united state has gone the way of the state dept. forging short term alliances with muslim despots in order to stabilize iraq during an election cycle. All short term thinking, if America is the lone super power the benign hegemony taking care of the world....this is an example that maybe that isn't such a good thing. And. well that the point isn't it. This estimate has shown the Israeli's that maybe America isn't so reliable. I for one think this in the end will turn out good for Israel, in the sense that it will force it to act unilaterally by itself, and fell the consequence of missiles and isolation, that will finally show that little country that normalization of the Jewish state for the past 80 years has been an abysmal failure, that the Jews are " a nation that shall dwell alone." FInally forcing the Jews to embrace their uniqueness not for uniqueness sake, but it being their only resort for survival....depend only on yourself and no one else.

Hatzkel, I agree with most of what you say about the US shirking their responsibilities as the World's only superpower and history's first "benevolent empire".
Iran is an old-style empire, and has always been that way, and America has apparently decided to let its present, Islamic avatar, acquire the proportions and wreak havoc similar or worse to what the previous format did. The difference is that neither Rome nor Byzantium had the power to stop the Sassanid onslaught.
The US, with its unprecedented military might, could easily spare the World, including Iran, a lot of pain and destruction, only it won't.

As to Israel acting unilaterally, well, it can't.  It simply doesn't have the firepower to destroy the mullah's nuclear infrastructure in a way that'd be congruent with its strategic objectives, which are a loose alliance with non-Arab countries and ethnic groups in the region, which should include a post-Islamic, democratic Iran and a secular Turkey. The only two military options that Israel has are a pre-emptive counter-force nuclear strike, and a city-busting revenge strike from at-sea assets once our one-bomb country has been attacked and destroyed (Assuming of course that the capability exists, and is not as I suspect a cheap, Khakawatistic tall tale to frighten the credulous). The first possibility won't leave much of a friendship between  the Persian and the Jewish people to build a future on, and there are no strategic considerations of any kind left standing if the second occurs. A pinpointed conventional attack on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missiles programs, the Revolutionary Guard and selected regime-related targets would require long-range stealth bombers, swarms of cruise missiles, and clouds of naval aviation, which only the United States presently has.
Handing a significant defeat to the IRGC while destroying enough of its assets and personnel and causing minimal suffering to Iran's civilians, is the only way to bring about regime change in Iran. It's a pity the US won't do it. Tiny Israel certainly can't.

 
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Shirrush    Behold the assymetry.   12/8/2007 3:26:00 PM
This conflict is assymetrical in its objectives.
The Islamic Republic of Iran wants to wipe Israel out in order to further its pan-Islamic imperial ambitions by assuming the leadership of the Muslim world.
Israel not only objects being destroyed, but would rather have Iran back as its major trading and strategic partner. Israel also doesn't mind Persia's imperial ambitions much provided they do not include genocide, and we have a biblical record that life as a Persian vassal statelet wasn't all that bad. Before that happened, BTW, there were also Persians willing to exterminate us, but we managed to do to them what they intended to do to us...

 
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Ezekiel    There is NO choice   12/8/2007 3:33:19 PM
First: When the Israeli military/political leadership convene on Iran the threat perception is at tts highest, and as it should be. Little more then 60 yrs after 2/3 of European Jewish population was wiped out with the world turning their face, the head of state has declared to the entire world another Jewish genocide is in the offing.
Second: Israel has the public support on Iran to make the difficult choice of taking on Iran. This is essential in a democracy and its war making capacity.
Third: Israel has been abrest of the Iran threat for 20 years and has for 16 yrs been actively devoting much of its intelligence resources to the Iranian dossier (I have this from reliable source).
Fourth: Israel has based military procurement on the Iran strategy for a decade. (tsufa, satellite, jericho III, submarines, arrow, UAV etc.)
Fifth: the re-establisment of Israel is living proof that when considering what is realistic, one should take another look.
Sixth: Israel has no other choice, and whenever one's back is against the wall, one consistently observes the capabilities and strength that had not yet been seen come into full view. This was done in '48, '56, '67, '73 entebbe, osirak, syria nuclear strike. Israel has shown time and again the ability to surprise its opponents and the world spectator

This is where I stand in the argument, I'm sure you will have the number on your side on this one, but I think history backs up Israel. I also do not as you do weigh heavily on the IDF, Lebanon gave them some rethinking, but all in all, Israel is one of the best tactical fighting forces in the world, with a vast and yet short experience on the battlefield, mixed with the hard resolve of the israeli public that will not settle for a nuclear Iran. Engenuity, flexibility, boldness mixed with courage in itself neutralizes much of a quantitave edge an adversary may have, and one push comes to shove Israel will have these qualites and more when conceiving and executing and battle strategy when dealing with the Iranian threat.

 
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FJV    Maybe a deal with the devil   12/8/2007 4:38:38 PM
The CIA is known for rumours of incompetence, unfortunately the secrecy prevents us from checking if this is true. Which means that it comes to hunches. My gut feeling that is that they are incompetent, telling the president that WMD in Iraq is a "slam dunk case" made me think that.

For Israel the situation might not be hopeless. In the Middle East what is said and what is done seem to be 2 different things. Arab nations might be more concerned about Iranian domination of the Middle East than about Israel. That makes Israel the number 2 or 3 enemy on everybody's list. This will never be admitted in the open though. Because of this some major Arab power players might be willing to "temporarily" work behind the scenes with Israel for the mutual benefit.

Israel could make a deal where they destroy Iran's nuke program *1) while the major Arab power players will ensure that any retaliation by Iran will be severely limited. Of course Israel has already has severely limited Iran's possibilities to strike back by attacking Hezbollah and Syria.

*1) According to some this is as simple as destroying 7 buildings in 3 places. I would combine this with assasination of their key scientists and managers though.







 
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sentinel28a       12/9/2007 9:30:58 AM





As Sentinel suggests Israel is perfectly capable of defending herself, as she has proved on numerous occasions.  As an ally we will continue to provide the toys necessary for the success of those operations.   



 


Yeah sure. So we get these B2's and F22's, right?

After the hack job the IDF did on Syria's air defense network, I'm not sure you need them.  Besides, we're lucky to pry funding out of Congress for our F-22s, and the B-2 line has been closed for some time. 
 
I agree it's unfair that the world has to rely on Israel to do the dirty work, but Europe is spineless (though Merkel and Sarkozy are a step in the right direction) and even if Bush was fanatically loyal to Israel, he's hamstrung by the Democrats, who would block a cure for cancer if they think Bush is remotely connected to it.  It's a perfect storm of bopkess, if I have the Yiddish right, and unfortunately the world is going to sit on their hands, again.  (Though I honestly think that Bush would go to war if it came down to it.)
 
Anyway, Shirrush, I wouldn't worry.  Plutarch and PaulG on the USA thread have assured me that Iran is peace-loving, Ahmadinejad is just trying to get more face time (he's competing with Britney, you know), and any hint that Iran is not peace loving is just a Bush-Cheney-Rove plot to start another war.  Because that's what neocons do, y'know.  So feel free to unilaterally disarm.
 
 
 
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American Kafir       12/11/2007 12:49:08 PM
So, we don't bomb Iranian-occupied Persia back to the Stone Age over nuclear weapons proliferation.
 
Why not over support for terrorists then? We're DAMNED SURE about that.
 
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Herald12345       12/11/2007 12:55:49 PM
Best way to handle a Persian if you want him for a friend is the bribe.

Best way to handle the Persian if you have to fight him is the bribe.

Depends on who you bribe.

Herald

 
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