haha..  I can't believe you guys.

US government did not provide any active material support to Israel in 48, in 56 or in 67....

 

whether these nations were weak is now in retrospect...always  easy after victory, to discover the weaknesses that allowed for victory...but on paper in these three wars...Israel should have lost....in the end it was strategy and leadership that proved the decisive factor in these and other Israeli engagements.

 

It is my opinion that this lack of leadership and strategy was the REAL problem in Lebanon and Hamastan (Gaza) engagement, and would be the decisive factor if Israel  faced Turkey.

 

Israel is now building its navy with new MEKO's frigates, unmanned scout/patrol boats and more dolphin subs. Also it has rolled out the new gabriel anti-ship missile and has revamped its mechanized forces with the acquisition of the Namir (apc). Another state of the art ofeq satellite was launched last year, not to mention Israeli cyber warfare capabilities. Also Israel by 2016 will have a multi-tiered anti missile defense from short range missiles to ballistic defense.

 

All in all the Turk is known for being a tough soldier, so I do believe it would be an even contest where the war strategy of either becomes the centripidal factor in such a contest. In that regard Israel has constantly been on the forefront of innovative strategy and battle tested generals...but given the last two draws in lebanon and Hamastan, an argument can be made that this may not be the case today....I for one believe that this sort of thinking would be a mistake due to the assymetric nature of those threats as opposed to a conventional war that we are discussing.

 

Shalom!

What do you guys think would be the result of a war between Turkey and Israel(leaving out nukes)...

I know that it won't happen because we are friends. But I'm curious... both nations have a lot of experience in warfare and are ferocious fighters.

?

Military history has shown that without securing the full air advantage it is impossible to win an air- naval war.

Israel airforce capacities is far more advanced than that of Turkey. Further in fields such as electronic warfare israel exceeds any other country. With the Israeli airforce it would be very difficult for turkey to gain the full air advantage and that would place its entire fleet at an immense risk. Further eastern med is a field where Turkey cannot deploy its vast land forces offseting its size advantage.

As Turkey lacks of aircraft carriers i cannot see a clear way to win such an air naval battle.

From the other hand Israel bears a great disadvantage in the Sea having an advanced coastguard type of navy that could not secure by any means the absolute sea domination for israel.

In this sense I would suppose that an Israeli-Turkish confict would let both countries wounded, Turkey with vast losses 

and a limited ability for future sea operations and Israel with almost no navy at all, open to all kind of threats from the seaside.

Should Greece, with  its significant naval force,  side Israel and Egypt, with its vast land forces, Turkey then things are going to be different of course.

But i think simply US are going to take charge in all cases before all this mess comes to pass. The US navy shall discretely  intersept the turkish flotilla and all will start again from scrath ie ...diplomacy....

I don't think this scenario is so far-fetched.

 

Turkey's PM  Erdogan is playing to Islamists and has been steadily consolidating his power.  Clearly he sees hostility against Israel as a way to win influence in the middle east.  In the past the secular military has kept religious extremists in check with occasional coups, but Erdogan has the generals on the defensive.  Several have been arrested and more have resigned in protest.  If he keeps up the pressure, he will either bring them to heel or incite a coup.  Picking a fight with Israel helps him in a number of ways.  Any general that opposes him become an "Israeli puppet." Arab countries will rally around Turkey as a champion of Islam (a role previously held by Iraq).

 

The threat to Turkey is minimal, because Turkey and Israel are separated by Syria and Lebanon.  So any war between them would be limited to an air-sea war. Neither side has amphibious capabilities sufficient to threaten the other.  While Israel is believed to have nukes, it is highly unlikely they would use them in a limited war.

 

The only limiting factor here is diplomatic.  The US and EU would attempt to restrain Turkey, but the EU is in disarray economically and unlikely to do anything of substance.  The US could threaten to cut off their access to weapons systems, which is most of the most of the Turkish military, but since their air force is mostly F-4's and F-16's, two of the most widely produced aircraft in history, they should not have a hard time getting spare parts in spite of an embargo.  Besides, they need to modernize and I'm sure Russia or China would be happy to help them with that.

 

So that leaves us with an air-sea battle.  Turkey has the superior navy.  Israel has the superior air force and advantages of experience and fighting on the defensive.  I don't think Turkey would make more than a demonstration.  The ships are too vulnerable to air attack.  Perhaps a few well-planned air raids and some submarine sniping.

Today it was announced that Turkey and Egypt will sign a defence treaty thus complicating things. Last week same thing happened between Greece Cyprus and Israel. The coallitions have been already set up.

But still I cannot see how US  are going to allow such a mess.

  

 

Turkey's PM  Erdogan is playing to Islamists and has been steadily consolidating his power.  Clearly he sees hostility against Israel as a way to win influence in the middle east.  In the past the secular military has kept religious extremists in check with occasional coups, but Erdogan has the generals on the defensive.  Several have been arrested and more have resigned in protest.  If he keeps up the pressure, he will either bring them to heel or incite a coup.  Picking a fight with Israel helps him in a number of ways.  Any general that opposes him become an "Israeli puppet." Arab countries will rally around Turkey as a champion of Islam (a role previously held by Iraq).

 

The threat to Turkey is minimal, because Turkey and Israel are separated by Syria and Lebanon.  So any war between them would be limited to an air-sea war. Neither side has amphibious capabilities sufficient to threaten the other.  While Israel is believed to have nukes, it is highly unlikely they would use them in a limited war.

 

The only limiting factor here is diplomatic.  The US and EU would attempt to restrain Turkey, but the EU is in disarray economically and unlikely to do anything of substance.  The US could threaten to cut off their access to weapons systems, which is most of the most of the Turkish military, but since their air force is mostly F-4's and F-16's, two of the most widely produced aircraft in history, they should not have a hard time getting spare parts in spite of an embargo.  Besides, they need to modernize and I'm sure Russia or China would be happy to help them with that.

 

So that leaves us with an air-sea battle.  Turkey has the superior navy.  Israel has the superior air force and advantages of experience and fighting on the defensive.  I don't think Turkey would make more than a demonstration.  The ships are too vulnerable to air attack.  Perhaps a few well-planned air raids and some submarine sniping.

hi my neighbours and no so neighbour friends.

because everything depends in history and politics the outcome will be only one. turkeys demise.they have biger problems then israel if they be at war.russia on one hand we cant say that loves them and will get the oportunity to strike them.greece will be in it as soon as it starts.usa will follow cause they want to get a piece of the corpse.as the kurdish people,they will make things for israel ''aliance'' as easy as walk to park.turkey is 56 diferent nations and none of them like turks.its a boiling pot.no nukes needed for it and we all know that israel has quite a few.for me erdogan is out of order and must be stoped before we destroyed turkey.wars are for idiots and let idiots do them.and lets remeber that noone is a winner in a war.there are only loosers.the outcome is how much looser you are.

by the way i am greek.i have nothing against israel but with turkey is another thing.my grandparents was living there till 1922 so you can thing how i feel for them.and mostly worst feelings for kurds who do the slaughtering part for turks.

and last but not list, turkeys are for owen.they are delicious dinner on thanksgiving.

 

This is a very biased view.

Bottom line is that Israel and Turkey are regional powers with strong links with US.
Only two days ago Turkey and USA co-signed a treaty for the installation of an early warning anti-missile radar system on turkish soil.

Equally US has demonstrated a zero tolerance to any attempt to marginilize Israel at the very moment where the entire Arab world is shifting to Islam (the final form of which is yet to be known i.e. westernised or funtamentalistic etc etc).

At the other hand  Greece is probably the most loyal pawn of US in the eastern med region which stability is threatened by internal centifugal forces. 

Those countries mentioned are the three pieces of the same puzzle that forms the keystone structure of the US dominance of the important oil/gas reserves of the fertile crescent. There is no way on earth US to allow the collapse of this well perceived security structure.

Thus the question, as per my view, will remain rhetorical for the time being.

I think that if it gets to that the US Navy can easily make clear to all three countries that its another thing to talk the talk but another to walk the walk.