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Subject: Iraq leaning towards iran?
eu    6/18/2011 12:47:13 PM
is it true that some parts of the iraqi new government are already leaning toward iran (intelligence service maybe)? i don't have a definite source, so i am wondering if anyone of you knows any better? please provide internet links where i can read further on the issue.
 
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WarNerd       6/18/2011 4:02:32 PM
Short answer -- Yes. 
 
Some individuals and parts of the government undoubtedly do lean toward from Iran (also the Saudi Arabia, USA, China, etc.). Doesn’t necessarily mean that they are in position to do anything, or even that they want Iran to take over.
 
Of course there are also a bunch of crypto-communists in the US State Department, too, but that does not mean that the USA is a communist state, yet . . .
 
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Reactive       6/18/2011 4:30:29 PM


Short answer -- Yes. 
 
Some individuals and parts of the government undoubtedly do lean toward from Iran (also the Saudi Arabia, USA, China, etc.). Doesn’t necessarily mean that they are in position to do anything, or even that they want Iran to take over.

Or to put it another way, the divisions between sunnis and shias within Iraq are greater than the divisions between the majority shia population and their (shia) Iranian counterparts. Moqtada al Sadr is a de-facto resident there, which is particularly worrying given the influence he holds over a vast sector of the Iraqi population.

Of course there are also a bunch of crypto-communists in the US State Department, too, but that does not mean that the USA is a communist state, yet . . .
 
But the important difference is that Shias in Iraq make up a substantial majority of the Iraqi population. I suspect Iran has already got the capability to rapidly destabilise Iraq.
 
R
 

 
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WarNerd       6/19/2011 5:24:03 AM
Short answer -- Yes. 
Some individuals and parts of the government undoubtedly do lean toward from Iran (also the Saudi Arabia, USA, China, etc.).  Doesn’t necessarily mean that they are in position to do anything, or even that they want Iran to take over.
Or to put it another way, the divisions between sunnis and shias within Iraq are greater than the divisions between the majority shia population and their (shia) Iranian counterparts. Moqtada al Sadr is a de-facto resident there, which is particularly worrying given the influence he holds over a vast sector of the Iraqi population.
Actually, Moqtada al Sadr influence is over a modest sector of the Iraqi population, made even smaller by his now obvious connection to Iran.  Yes there is the division between Shia and Sunni, but no, the division between Arab and Persian is even greater.  Tribe is more important than religion.
 
When Iraqi Shia talks about religious control of the government, very few are talking about Iranian control of Iraq.  And those wanting religious control of the government are far fewer than they were a couple years ago, they have Iran next door providing a live example of just how well that does not work.  While the majority of Iraqi's are Shia, the majority of the Shia want a secular government.
Of course there are also a bunch of crypto-communists in the US State Department, too, but that does not mean that the USA is a communist state, yet . . .
But the important difference is that Shias in Iraq make up a substantial majority of the Iraqi population. I suspect Iran has already got the capability to rapidly destabilise Iraq.
R
Moqtada al Sadr can make trouble, but he cannot destabilize Iraq on his own.  The last time he tried the Iraqi government, not the Multi-National Force, stepped on him and his supporters hard, and he ended up hiding in Iran for over 3 years.
 
The big change now is that the political party he controls is a junior partner in the governing coalition of parties, which gives him enough clout that he can force a vote of no confidence in the Iraqi Parliament if he pulls out. But even if the vote of no confidence succeeds his party will not be the one asked to try and form a new government, especially given his/their unpopularity with other parties. This is a close to destabilizing Iraq as he can come now.
 
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