| The Mahdi Army has often been quoted as ranging in size from 40,000-60,000 members. I've long suspected those numbers were exaggerated (maybe doubled), but clearly it was a force of substantial size.
Okay, so now the Mahdi Army was driven out of Basra and has been pounded by Coalition forces for several weeks. It has clearly lost significant cohesion. Time for a BDA.
Question One: What is left of the Mahdi Army?
Obviously this has a political element: Elections in Iraq are expected to take place before October 1, and Prime Minister al-Maliki obviously doesn't want people casting their votes under the threats of Mahdi gunmen. It could considerably reduce al Sadr's political leverage if he were to lose his roughly 30 supporters in the 275-member Council of Representatives. Having nearly 11% of the Council gives him significant political influence. Maliki has managed to work around the Sadrists by assembling a coalition that includes Kurds and Sunni's (who have united around the notion that Sadr is a threat to them all), but Sadr remains a player so long as he has the votes--regardless of circumstances under which they were cast.
Question two: If al-Sadr loses most of his political and military weight, where does that take Iraq? |
