| Tom, I tend to agree with your characterization. I hope my comments have not led you to believe that I view Iran as a dictatorship. I DO NOT (see my article in the British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies entitled: Thermidor in the Islamic Republic of Iran, The Rise of Muhammad Khatami). I contend that it is a transitional REVOLUTIONARY state. On the side of authoritarianism it has the institution of the Faqih, which is Khamenei's post as you know. The faqih has far reaching constitutional authority known as "discretionary powers." These allow him constitutionally to exercise the equivalent of marshall law. He can temporarily suspend basic freedoms such as press, assembly, speech, etc, IN ORDER TO PROTECT THE CONSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM. That's the kicker. Khamenei is currently exercising some of these powers to suppress the press and reformist factions. These powers allow him to legally create what political scientists might call a "temporary dictatorship" or its equivalent. These powers parallel those of other transitional states, most notable Weimar Germany (so-called article 48) which allowed for temporary presidential dictatorships. Offsetting these powers are strong constitutional powers which are democratic in character, namely separation of powers (leg, exec, judicial branches, voting rights, etc.) and presumably basic freedoms (press, assembly, speech, etc.). The problem of these kinds of transitional systems is that they have both authoritarian and democratic elements which are CONSTITUTIONAL. I cannot predict the future. I hope Iran goes democratic and eliminates the discretionary powers currently being exercised or abused by Khamenei. THESE ARE DETRIMENTAL TO DEMOCRACY (SECULAR OR ISLAMIC). Khamenei's abuse of his discretionary powers have led to a loss of regime legitimacy. But if you note, people are still voting for Islamist reformers like Khatami, Soroush, Musavi, Karrubi, Khoeniha, etc--not secularists.Transitional systems are ones that lie at a cross roads and thus can go in either direction--towards dictatorship or democracy. Historically they tend to backslide into what I refer to as paternal dictatorships, but we've come along way since 1789 and democracy is more well intrenched today than ever before. This may prove to be the lynchpin of Iran. Popular grass roots movements may force further constitutional revisions or the scrapping of the current Islamic constitutional system in favor of one that is more secular and democratic. Lets hope so. But it is no coincidence that the ulema led the revolution--they are lawyers and judges and they wanted a constitutional system just like in the West (see Ayatollah Montazeri's Memiors). But currently I would say Iran is in a position of potential tyranny, because Ali Khamenei has employed his discretionary powers in what I would regard as an abusive way (ie., to maintain personal power--not to defend the constitutional system). This is bad and dangerous for those wanting further reform of the present system or even for those wanting an entirely new secular system. This reflects an underlying authoritarian streak to Iranian politics that is currently not present in modern Western and liberal democracies. But it is not just the Faqih who abuses authority but also the courts (Council of Guardians) who tamper with elections. The US government needs to be aware or attentive to the potentiality of back-sliding. It occurred in Latin America which is more democratic than the Mid East has ever been. This is not to say that Iran will become a full blown dictatorship, but rather to suggest that if the US does not respond appropriately to the reform movement and other democratically-inclined actors within and without of Iran, then dictatorship is a THEORETICAL POSSIBILITY. Translation: Don't count your chickens before they hatch. |
