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Subject: France Sabre rattling at Iran
DragonReborn    9/17/2007 9:20:37 AM
Saw this in the press today. h**p://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6998602.stm "A warning by France's foreign minister that the world should prepare for war over Iran's nuclear programme has drawn a furious response in Iranian media. France was aping the US and its new president had "taken on American skin", the official Iranian news agency said. On Sunday Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said: "We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war." Iran's nuclear programme is to be debated in Vienna, Austria, at the UN nuclear watchdog's annual conference. Iran denies it is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, and says it only wants nuclear power to generate electricity for civilian purposes. But it has repeatedly rejected UN demands to give up the enrichment of uranium, which the US and other Western states fear is being diverted to a nuclear weapons project. 'Inflammatory' Mr Kouchner said negotiations with Iran should continue "right to the end", but that an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose "a real danger for the whole world". The occupants of the Elysee have become the executors of the will of the White House Iranian news agency IRNA New France gets tough Profile: Bernard Kouchner He said a number of large French companies had been asked not to tender for business in Iran. Iranian official media responded with contempt. "The occupants of the Elysee (the French presidential palace) have become the executors of the will of the White House and have adopted a tone that is even harder, even more inflammatory and more illogical than that of Washington," it said. The accepted wisdom in Iran is that the US is too wrapped up in Iraq and Afghanistan to launch another war in the region, says the BBC's Jon Leyne in the capital, Tehran. Mr Kouchner was visiting Russia on Monday, where he was expected to push for tighter UN sanctions to try to force Iran to give up enrichment. Russia has a UN Security Council veto over any new sanctions, and its support is seen as vital for any new approach. But Mr Kouchner said even in the absence of UN action, the European Union should prepare its own sanctions against Iran. Tougher approach Iran has warned that any new punishments could push it to stop co-operating with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Bushehr nuclear reactor Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful The IAEA's members meet this week in Austria, with Iran likely to top the agenda. The director of the organisation, Mohamed ElBaradei, has been criticised in the West over a new deal with Iran to clear up questions about its past nuclear activities. The US and its allies believe the deal just gives Iran more time, during which they fear it will advance its nuclear programme. The BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says France has changed its approach to world affairs under its new President Nicolas Sarkozy, adopting a harder line on several issues, and seeking to improve relations with the US. The United States has not ruled out a military attack against Iran to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. However, a top general in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards said any bombing raid on targets in Iran would provoke a tough response. US positions in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan "are within our range", Gen Mohammad Hassan Koussechi told IRNA." With the French appearing to be onside, is it possible we could see a Franco-American attack on Iran (Isreal would want to join as well but US would probably ban them to avoid up setting other Arab Allies). With British forces tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan I doubt the UK will be able to send more than a handful of Eurofighters and perhaps some minesweepers. Gordon Brown is not as militaristic as Blair and so is likely to try to avoid UK involvement as hes looking towards the next election!! If France joins would any other EU nations join, eg Germany, Italy, and Spain etc. If there is a war its not likely to be a ground war. Instead the focus will be on SEAD and shock and awe to take out nuclear installations and government buildings etc. Is France up to this job (probably). Are any other EU nations up to it apart from UK (don’t think so) Discuss...
 
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Herald1234    Both Sarkozy and Bush should keep their big mouths shut..............    9/17/2007 9:33:31 AM
and let the diplomats do their jobs until the case is abindantly and TRULY clear that Iran is totally intransigent, THEN attack if they must.
 
War is always the last option.
 
Is France up to it?
 
The French are, though their equipment isn't really ready. The rest of the EU military is tough and professional. I don't know about their sustainment, but if they use their nascent command and control and gradually adapt to the situation; they'll do okay logistically.   
 
Herald
 
 
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DragonReborn       9/17/2007 9:41:09 AM

and let the diplomats do their jobs until the case is abindantly and TRULY clear that Iran is totally intransigent, THEN attack if they must.

 

War is always the last option.

 

Is France up to it?

 

The French are, though their equipment isn't really ready. The rest of the EU military is tough and professional. I don't know about their sustainment, but if they use their nascent command and control and gradually adapt to the situation; they'll do okay logistically.   

 

Herald

 

But a war with Iran with EU involement won't depend upon EU logistics. I'm sure the Americans can support any EU force from Iraq. The question is do other EU states like Germany, Italy and Spain have the technology to run SEAD and
other bombing missions in a high treat environment like Iran?
 
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Softwar    1 Hit War   9/17/2007 9:51:32 AM
One airstrike at Kharg island cuts Iran's oil exports to nil.
 
Sit back, contain the response (e.g. knock down Shahabs, sink or shoot down anything that threatens the Gulf, take on terror cells that appear)...
 
Wait until boil over - no money equals no war, no funds for terrorism, no food, and no fuel.
 
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DarthAmerica    Softwar reply   9/17/2007 10:17:40 AM

One airstrike at Kharg island cuts Iran's oil exports to nil.

 

Sit back, contain the response (e.g. knock down Shahabs, sink or shoot down anything that threatens the Gulf, take on terror cells that appear)...

 

Wait until boil over - no money equals no war, no funds for terrorism, no food, and no fuel.



In any other case I would agree but this would still leave the Iranians the option of "scorched Earth". Any strike has to target completely the Iranian ability to project power.
 
-DA
 
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Herald1234    Softwar I don't exactly agree.   9/17/2007 10:32:44 AM

One airstrike at Kharg island cuts Iran's oil exports to nil.

 

Sit back, contain the response (e.g. knock down Shahabs, sink or shoot down anything that threatens the Gulf, take on terror cells that appear)...

 

Wait until boil over - no money equals no war, no funds for terrorism, no food, and no fuel.


We've seen the test run of how Iran would try to respond. She'd try to run guerilla war operations in eastern Iraq, and southern Afghanistan, as well as encoiurage Hafaz Assad to try his hand in Lebanon again. I doubt the Europe cells arer ready or that the Gaza cell that she's tried to build is ready, but unlike the poseurs who think in terms of la Grande Invasion, I worry about the small war.
 
The Iranians can't win, but they have options. There are always the PRC bandits, and Putin to polit6ically leverage. There is always Hizbollah and the knucklehead left to exploit.
 
And there is always the surprise Sunday punch we just might have missed; as the recent IAF raid into Syria might have uncovered and destroyed recently.       
Nobody sane goes into this war thinking its quick easy and certain.
 
In answer to the question,can the EU mount operations from US bases in Iraq to wreck Iran's air defense?
 
The following nations can.
 
Spain
France
Germany
Italy
Britain
Holland
possibly Norway
possibly Denmark
and possibly Poland 
 
Ground combat.
 
All of the above nations and Belgium included.
 
How many would participate?
 
Spain won't. She has no interest in so doing.
 
France?
 
Frankly I've no idea what Sarkozy thinks he's doing. If he wants to help he should secretly telephone George and advise him that France will be less obstructionist on the diplomatic front, but recommend that Condi Rice continue to hammer away at the sanctions option in the UN. Where France can help US is turning its DGSE loose in the shadow war. The French are very good at the shadow war. Dead Iranian agents in the gutters and alleys of the world's seamier business venues serve us in the West better than Rafales making bombing runs on Kharg Island.
 
Herald   
 
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Shirrush       9/17/2007 10:45:12 AM
Kouchner is only doing his job. Backing up diplomacy with a credible war threat is the only way to get a result.
And it appears to be working, since Ahmadinutjob has already slithered underneath an sofa and has started making carpet noises such as: "Our message to the American nation is a message of peace, friendship, brotherhood and respect for humans".
 Where is the "al Mawt ul Amrika" message now? If the Mullahcrats can be persuaded that keeping up their aggressive stance will result in personal harm to themselves, they may, as the good cowards they are, want to reconsider their nuclear policies.
If noisier persuasion  becomes necessary, I'm sure that the French Marines will be very useful for the Battle of Hormuzgan, and the French spy satellites can
certainly play a key role in battlespace coverage. 
This regime can be rendered harmless by simply standing up to them and calling their bluff, countering their threats, killing their Quds Force terrorists wherever they are, and helping the long-suffering Iranian people do what they gotta do. If this plays out, everybody wins, Iran gets freedom and a ticket for prosperity, the World gets Iran, and the Middle-East, a future.

 
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DarthAmerica       9/17/2007 11:00:24 AM




One airstrike at Kharg island cuts Iran's oil exports to nil.



 



Sit back, contain the response (e.g. knock down Shahabs, sink or shoot down anything that threatens the Gulf, take on terror cells that appear)...



 



Wait until boil over - no money equals no war, no funds for terrorism, no food, and no fuel.




We've seen the test run of how Iran would try to respond. She'd try to run guerilla war operations in eastern Iraq, and southern Afghanistan, as well as encoiurage Hafaz Assad to try his hand in Lebanon again. I doubt the Europe cells arer ready or that the Gaza cell that she's tried to build is ready, but unlike the poseurs who think in terms of la Grande Invasion, I worry about the small war.
 

The Iranians can't win, but they have options. There are always the PRC bandits, and Putin to polit6ically leverage. There is always Hizbollah and the knucklehead left to exploit.

 

And there is always the surprise Sunday punch we just might have missed; as the recent IAF raid into Syria might have uncovered and destroyed recently.       

Nobody sane goes into this war thinking its quick easy and certain.

 

In answer to the question,can the EU mount operations from US bases in Iraq to wreck Iran's air defense?

 

The following nations can.

 

Spain

France

Germany

Italy

Britain

Holland

possibly Norway

possibly Denmark

and possibly Poland 

 

Ground combat.

 

All of the above nations and Belgium included.

 

How many would participate?

 

Spain won't. She has no interest in so doing.

 

France?

 

Frankly I've no idea what Sarkozy thinks he's doing. If he wants to help he should secretly telephone George and advise him that France will be less obstructionist on the diplomatic front, but recommend that Condi Rice continue to hammer away at the sanctions option in the UN. Where France can help US is turning its DGSE loose in the shadow war. The French are very good at the shadow war. Dead Iranian agents in the gutters and alleys of the world's seamier business venues serve us in the West better than Rafales making bombing runs on Kharg Island.

 

Herald   



Herald is right and this is why I've advised against this course of action for now. It's not the big thing but all the little small things Iran can do. They would not "win" but they could make losing very harmful to our regional and even global interest. I'm not talking about FS foolish suggestions of a conventional campaign either.
 
-DA
 
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DarthAmerica       9/17/2007 11:21:35 AM

Kouchner is only doing his job. Backing up diplomacy with a credible war threat is the only way to get a result.

Historically thats almost never worked here. Nations generally know our war criteria but gamble one way or the other based on risk vs reward. Everyone knows we would go to war with Iran if pushed to do so.
-DA
 
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Softwar       9/17/2007 12:14:47 PM




One airstrike at Kharg island cuts Iran's oil exports to nil.



 



Sit back, contain the response (e.g. knock down Shahabs, sink or shoot down anything that threatens the Gulf, take on terror cells that appear)...



 



Wait until boil over - no money equals no war, no funds for terrorism, no food, and no fuel.




We've seen the test run of how Iran would try to respond. She'd try to run guerilla war operations in eastern Iraq, and southern Afghanistan, as well as encoiurage Hafaz Assad to try his hand in Lebanon again. I doubt the Europe cells arer ready or that the Gaza cell that she's tried to build is ready, but unlike the poseurs who think in terms of la Grande Invasion, I worry about the small war.
 

The Iranians can't win, but they have options. There are always the PRC bandits, and Putin to polit6ically leverage. There is always Hizbollah and the knucklehead left to exploit.

 

And there is always the surprise Sunday punch we just might have missed; as the recent IAF raid into Syria might have uncovered and destroyed recently.       

Nobody sane goes into this war thinking its quick easy and certain.

 

In answer to the question,can the EU mount operations from US bases in Iraq to wreck Iran's air defense?

 

The following nations can.

 

Spain

France

Germany

Italy

Britain

Holland

possibly Norway

possibly Denmark

and possibly Poland 

 

Ground combat.

 

All of the above nations and Belgium included.

 

How many would participate?

 

Spain won't. She has no interest in so doing.

 

France?

 

Frankly I've no idea what Sarkozy thinks he's doing. If he wants to help he should secretly telephone George and advise him that France will be less obstructionist on the diplomatic front, but recommend that Condi Rice continue to hammer away at the sanctions option in the UN. Where France can help US is turning its DGSE loose in the shadow war. The French are very good at the shadow war. Dead Iranian agents in the gutters and alleys of the world's seamier business venues serve us in the West better than Rafales making bombing runs on Kharg Island.

 

Herald   


Herald -
I agree and dis-agree.  You are very right about the small war scenario.  The only way Iran can fight is via unconventional means but that is a losing strategy any way you want to cut it.  They are great with terrorist ops, and I am certain they have sleeper cells in the US but neither of these are going to be a knock-out punch.
 
However, they are very aware of how easy it would be to cripple their nation with a strike on Kharg.  Our naval superiority is the key here.  Their economy depends on exporting oil and that rests on whether we want them to or not.  They have few options but to play the unconventional card.  This is one reason why we see so much bluster but little action from Tehran.
I would see attacks in the Gulf better aimed at our allies and their oil production facilities than throwing away lives in Iraq.  Iraq in its own way is turning into a Gettysburg for the Jihadists.  They would do better attacking our economic life lines but - don't tell 'em that.
 
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DarthAmerica       9/17/2007 12:36:10 PM


Herald -

I agree and dis-agree.  You are very right about the small war scenario.  The only way Iran can fight is via unconventional means but that is a losing strategy any way you want to cut it.  They are great with terrorist ops, and I am certain they have sleeper cells in the US but neither of these are going to be a knock-out punch.

Softwar,
If I may interject. Terrorism so far has proven to be ineffective at deterring or seriouly hurting the United States. As grievous as the 9/11 attacks were the USA recovered very well in the aftermath. The terror attacks however are a means to an end. Look at the hugely disproportionate U.S. and Allied force dedicated to dealing with insurgents. Now consider the following...North Korea, Syria, Somalia, Taiwan, Pakistan, Saudi Araia and recently Europe. Any of those places could suddenly plunge into crisis. Where is the U.S. Army? Do you see where I'm going with this?
 
 
-DA

 
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