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Subject: Time: What would a war with Iran look like?
PowerPointRanger    9/17/2006 1:01:31 PM
Time magazine has posed the question. Let's put out StrategyPage Discussion Board to work on that intriguing possibility.
 
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kane       9/17/2006 1:43:12 PM
Every war looks bad.If there would be land ops,that would seem extra bad.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       9/18/2006 1:18:26 AM
"West Wing" did a scenario with PLA troops moving into Iran via container ships and Russian troops coming in from the North, with the US, France and England coming in from Iraq.

I imagine there would be a protracted air war, but also a fairly nasty naval campaign.  Iran would choke the strait of hormuz with mines, shore based anti-ship missiles and artillery.  The US would have be very methodical in scorching the iranian earth around that area as well as deal with newer Russian air defenses.  The Iranians would use their subs to replenish diffused mines as well as kill any minesweepers, those subs would never come into open water, so the US would have to basically seal off the airspace over the strait to keep away the iranian air force.

Instead of sending manned US subs into the Persian gulf, that might be a good time to put UUVs to work to kill the iranian subs, anti ship missiles can kill the surface ships.

So a few months would pass before we would even think about ground troops.  We could keep China at bay politically and possibly military by holding a knife to the pipelines that supply China.

 
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displacedjim       9/18/2006 11:45:10 AM
If we attack them, it would only be after a huge build-up and commitment of Desert Storm proportions, at a minimum at least regarding our airpower (and also land forces if our plan includes an actual land force invasion with the intent to hold territory for an extended time period).  Iran's air forces and air defense forces would be out of action within one week.  Iran's fixed sites and other facilities for their longer ranged ballistic missiles would be smoking holes within one week.  Iran's best chance for actually achieving some damage to its neighbors is if Iran attacks them/us first.  Of course, Iran's best chance for having us come and destroy their military and nuclear facilities is for Iran to attack them/us first.
 
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HYPOCENTER       9/18/2006 3:09:07 PM
Build up, what build up? We're already there! The only thing we would use in an Iran attack would be air assets and maybe spec ops like SEALS, both of which are already in Iraq and Afghanistan. No ground troops would be needed, no land invasion -- this is a textbook air campaign.
 
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VelocityVector    Build Up   9/18/2006 4:31:22 PM

Build up, what build up? We're already there!
I disagree.  For starters, we cannot sustain tempo with forty-hour missions and the big uglies would be needed.  We'd also need to scale up aerial tankerage.  We'd want every available U-2 we could muster.  Ditto for SAR.  Then there's the matter of mine clearance and persistent suppression of the mine layers.  Just to mention a few of the niceties that would require an observable build up in theater, unless of course we "just wanted to send a message," which would be disasterous IMO.


v^2

 
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reefdiver       9/18/2006 4:55:22 PM
"Then there's the matter of mine clearance and persistent suppression of the mine layers. "
 
- I read today that several mine sweepers and their escorts have been told to be "ready to deploy". Don't recall which web site.
 
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TAC II       9/18/2006 5:05:45 PM

"Then there's the matter of mine clearance and persistent suppression of the mine layers. "

 

- I read today that several mine sweepers and their escorts have been told to be "ready to deploy". Don't recall which web site.


The USN has what, 14 minesweepers left, two or four of which are based in Bahrain. Any large scale MCM operation would have to include NATO NRF SNMCMG1 and 2 + others...
 
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HYPOCENTER       9/18/2006 9:16:17 PM
Anyone tell me when it's believed that Iran's nuke program will reach the 'point of no return'? The reason I ask is because a strike will have to come before this point -- otherwise it's uselss.

I heard someone mention on the news that rumors are starting that the military is getting ready for an October strike. Unfounded or no? How close are we to point of no return?



 
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Tiber1       9/18/2006 11:45:40 PM

Anyone tell me when it's believed that Iran's nuke program will reach the 'point of no return'? The reason I ask is because a strike will have to come before this point -- otherwise it's uselss.

I heard someone mention on the news that rumors are starting that the military is getting ready for an October strike. Unfounded or no? How close are we to point of no return?








No way they will attack before the Nov elections. Too big of a risk to the Republican seats. Who knows how the electorate would react? What would they do if Oil spiked or something worse happened? War is hell, even the best laid plans can have mistakes or pure accidents. Who would want to risk pictures of dead kids or something during their election campaign?
Now come Dec 1st... Especially if the Dem's get power. Be their last chance.
 
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HYPOCENTER       9/19/2006 1:10:05 AM


Anyone tell me when it's believed that Iran's nuke program will reach the 'point of no return'? The reason I ask is because a strike will have to come before this point -- otherwise it's uselss.

I heard someone mention on the news that rumors are starting that the military is getting ready for an October strike. Unfounded or no? How close are we to point of no return?



No way they will attack before the Nov elections. Too big of a risk to the Republican seats. Who knows how the electorate would react? What would they do if Oil spiked or something worse happened? War is hell, even the best laid plans can have mistakes or pure accidents. Who would want to risk pictures of dead kids or something during their election campaign?


Now come Dec 1st... Especially if the Dem's get power. Be their last chance.

To correct my last statement, I got my facts wrong (I missunderstood what I heard).... the real story I heard, wasn't that the U.S. will attack Iran... but the reverse. That Iran has orchistrated an "October surprise" offensive against US forces in Iraq. To clarify, this isn't an overt attack by Iran, but one through proxy via the various insurgent groups they supply with men and material.

All of this via a STRATFOR article. I guess we'll see what happens in October, it's coming soon enough. My guess the reaction from the world will be the same as it has always been, appeasement and inaction.
 
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