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Subject: Long Story short... Iran with nukes will push the U.S. out in under 10 years
StateMachine    6/3/2006 2:40:42 AM
Contrary to the drivel about mad moolahs, jihadi wetdreams, and general irrationality, the drive for nukes by Iran is driven by 2 forces. 1) Deterrence against regime change 2) Leverage from which to project power which are actually 2 sides of a single coin. Iran is the ONLY M.E. nation that has unequivocally and overtly positioned itself as THE alternative to U.S. hegemony in the M.E.. Even Saddam was just another dog in the U.S. kennel till he tried to gobble up a fellow pup and had to be put down. As such, there is no room for diplomacy. Diplomacy is grease to get objects past each other. But when you're talking about interferences measured in meters instead of microns, one object simply has to go. The German ex-FM puts it very well in this recent article. He gets it. Under a nuclear umbrella, Iran could actually begin to fight the U.S. in Iraq on a level not seen yet(Some whole number multiple of current casualty rates in Iraq). Brittania would be sent scurrying within months. Iran also would restart revolutionary drives in Shi'a Bahrain and Eastern Saudi. Can you imagine 33% of the world's daily oil production going out due to local action? Kuwait? what Kuwait? Oh that's part of Basra now.... Again. IOW, Iran would proceed to break the rest of the U.S. aligned M.E. quite handily. And the U.S. forces in Iraq would quite literally be lucky to get out alive. This is what endgame looks like unless the U.S. acts within the window. But even that has unknown costs. Will Iran escalate? Does Iran have intelligence on when the U.S. has decided and pre-empts the U.S.?(Russia allegedly told Saddam when and where and he hesitated, Iran won't) Will a ground war ensue? Does Iran already have nukes?... Stay tuned.
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S-2    RE: State Machine Reply   6/3/2006 3:47:59 PM
Take a gander at this paper and let me know what you think. It's about nine months old-
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Admiral Kirk    RE:Long Story short... Iran with nukes will push the U.S. out in under 10 years   6/3/2006 6:22:09 PM
I would tend to disagree with you on this one. The US has many options of which they have not applied as of yet. I dont believe the US has a window to act in? Iran has been steadly escalating this situation for years now. It makes no difference whether Iran has nukes or not. The difference to be made would be if they used them or not. If Iran uses nuclear might as well kiss that part of the world good bye. I will guarantee that Iran would commit political/economical/and military suicide by doing this. By the way, Iran is fighting the US now across the border now. Economically, this would hurt Russia/China....and others. Diplomatically speaking...the pressure is on Iran now to concede and cooperate. Russia/China are now on board. Security Council sanctions are next. We may not be able to avoid a war with Iran, but so far, you may not be giving the US its due credit so far. Interesting sideline though. Admiral Kirk
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Herc the Merc    RE:Long Story short... Iran with nukes will push the U.S. out in under 10 years   6/3/2006 9:20:29 PM
Ur ignoring, this plot will be hatched in Beijing not Teheran--theis is The Dragons plans.
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