Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Iran Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack.
reefdiver    4/10/2006 2:20:01 PM
from an article at: http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Moscows_Move_In_Iran_Crisis.html about the result of "war gaming" excercise at George Mason University: "When it became clear that an American attack was imminent, the Russian team announced an extraordinary measure: the deployment of Russian troops to strategic (nuclear) sites in Iran." Interesting possibility to discuss with all its ramifications.
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2
hybrid    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack.   4/10/2006 3:13:28 PM
"The fact that the Russian team in my class took this step does not mean that the Russian government itself would do so (or the Iranian government would accept it) if an American attack on Iran really was imminent. Such a move, though, might well be attractive to Moscow for several reasons: 1) it might succeed in deterring an American attack; 2) it would move Russia from the periphery to the center of the diplomatic effort to resolve the crisis; and 3) it holds out the promise of increased Russian influence in oil-rich Iran." Might want to not take it out of context mate :) That said it would pretty much KILL all diplomatic credentials Russia had for any thing the US was intent on doing afterwards. The US would look again at Russia as a very hostile agent and one that enabled a hostile regime to get nuclear weapons despite everything else, on top of that nothing the Russians can say or do will guarantee those said nuclear weapons are not mounted on missiles or simply put in a truck or container to be driven into a port (Israel? US? UK? Australia?) and blown up. Yeah not exactly the best thing Russia would want to do in the long term and most definitely not in its best interests. Russia would gain more hard currency working out trade deals with the US and Europe (and even selling off natural gas supplies to Europe) than it would through Iran.
 
Quote    Reply

reefdiver    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - hyrid   4/10/2006 3:39:15 PM
Expected people to read the article. Its just an interesting move to consider. That they came to certain conclusions means litte to an independent discussion. My title was of course a bit "baiting". I'm just interested in hearing a discussion here. Of course its frequently difficult to have discussions there without them dissolving into "we can beat the s@#t out of them"...
 
Quote    Reply

Decimatus    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - hyrid   4/11/2006 12:17:43 AM
If I were part of the American team in that class I would have said "Let loose the dogs of War". Sorry Russia, it isn't our fault you decided to congregate around all of our military targets.
 
Quote    Reply

reefdiver    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/11/2006 12:40:54 AM
"If I were part of the American team in that class I would have said "Let loose the dogs of War". Sorry Russia, it isn't our fault you decided to congregate around all of our military targets." - Agreed. If only you were king. Politics unfortunatly screws up the best of military plans. This probably be enough of a conundrum to cause most politicans to pass out.
 
Quote    Reply

Nichevo    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/11/2006 1:55:14 AM
Go ahead, kill 'em. So what? No, really.
 
Quote    Reply

AdvanceAustralia    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/11/2006 1:58:18 AM
Interesting topic for discussion, reefdiver. For what it's worth, some points to consider: 1. It's in Russia's interest for the oil supply from Iran to be disrupted as this makes Russian oil exports more valuable. Hence, Russia is likely to continue to keep doing what it's doing now ie. not help the US via sanctions, etc but also not physically impede the US. 2. The Iranian theocracy, after telling the Iranian people they have all these wonder-weapons and can give the US a kicking, are unlikely to accept Russian help in the form of Russian military on the ground in Iran. This would be a loss of face and, as everyone knows, once you let the Russians in they never want to leave. 3. Russia's greatest motivation for getting troops on the ground in Iran would be the age-old reason of seizing a year-round warm-water port. This is of course not feasible as, in the absence of Iranian co-operation, they would have to fight their way in and occupy a sizeable chunk of Iran. The Red Army just ain't what it used to be... Cheers.
 
Quote    Reply

hybrid    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/11/2006 5:12:44 AM
Reef- US team should have said, "Fine you want to protect those sites so badly whats you're reaction going to be if I drop a tac nuke on each site or take them out with cruise missiles." If the Russians say they are protecting these sites because they are solely for peaceful purposes they will let a US and UN team in to inspect wherever it wants. If not, boom go the sites and the Russians get red faced for harboring WMDs in a truly hostile nation that wouldn't hesitate to toss a nuke at most countries. Again this is outside of the geopolitical cost Russia faces afterwards, and is a major reason you wont see this happen. What MIGHT happen is that we'll see Russian and/or Chinese 'advisors' for upgrading air defense systems, C4 systems, potential tactics, etc. Both countries have been noted for doing this even in 03 in Iraq. They view it as a way of getting accurate intel on what our systems are capable of even if the targetted country gets smashed. Thats personally what I'd do if I was the Russian team, play the diplo card all the way through, play the veto card as much as possible to the last minute and then place my advisors throughout the country if I though a real strike would go down. On the other hand it would also behoove the Russians to sell crappy/faulty gear to the Iranians and then let the Americans know on the back end what was actually happening.
 
Quote    Reply

Decimatus    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/11/2006 9:55:44 AM
>>>Go ahead, kill 'em. So what? No, really.<<< In that situation you have to show the Russians that they can't play around with our national security. Aiding the enemy is as bad as being the enemy. It would be better to face a second cold war than to have Iran ship a nuke to a US port.
 
Quote    Reply

Nichevo    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/12/2006 3:33:32 AM
Exactly. The next convoy of Russians sneaking out WMD data should get splattered but good, diplomats or no. Oops, we made a mistake. It's not like Russia could or would offer anybody a tripwire.
 
Quote    Reply

Nanheyangrouchuan    RE:Russian deploy troops to Iran in the face of imminent attack. - Decimatus   4/12/2006 12:48:05 PM
"once you let the Russians in they never want to leave." I think the Iranians know this as well, and once Russian troops are in key areas (guarding nuke facilities...and oil fields), Russian oil companies will show up to "improve management and production processes" on a long term basis.
 
Quote    Reply
1 2



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics