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Subject: Alternative history?
Seeker    11/18/2005 3:03:40 AM
Interesting paper 11/18/2005 3:02:42 AM US military types in a 2002 research paper into SEALOWE.... :" target="_blank">http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:Qg7VRy8WOUIJ:> They have interesting side angle to consider for this whole 'alternative history' scenario we're throwing around here. 1st : Hitler missed opertunity to bring other countries into combined alliance by failing to get Mussoline into full court press on the RN in the Med prior to Sealion in order to draw off critical RN assets. 2nd : Franco Spain -Hitler dialogue. If he wanted britain badly enough he could have cut a deal. Hitler missed a chance to include Franco which would have controlled western med so Italian navy could contribute directly to Sea Lion [you want our help in N Africa, help us in the channel].Relative to the cost of continued western front warfare for years, the tributes to Franco would have been really good economy. 3rd ; Hitler missed a critial opertunity to strong arm Vichy France into Nazi use of their surface fleet...all those BB/CC/destroyers could have helped immensly.Knowing the animosity many french have towards the brits, its not inconcievable to see some French, Italian and German warships acting together. That kind of severe shift in the battle calculus is exactly the kind of war winning manuever that only politics and a strong leader can supply. Not unlike Hitler-Stalin pact prior to Poland. How many prewar analysis saw that one comming? It could have rewriten the history books. Perhaps if Hitler had stuck to more of that level of warfare than mircomanaging the armed forces , Germany could have won the European aspect of the war. How would a combined German French Italian Navy power be able to fend off USA involvment in the European war?
 
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S-2    RE:Alternative history?/Seeker Reply   11/18/2005 12:37:20 PM
I haven't been there yet, but it appears really cool. My general themes on this revolve around the defeat of Great Britain, and the relatively ripe fruit of the Med falling Hitler's way, while irrevocably isolating the Soviet Union. Alternatively, the neutralization of England bringing about the defeat of the Commonwealth in the Med. There are a ton of possible permutations off these. However, that these events didn't occur as is postulated points to the rare combination of diplomatic skill, strategic foresight, timing, and luck play into the outcome. Thanks for the read. I look forward to it.
 
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S-2    RE:Alternative history?   11/18/2005 12:43:43 PM
One has to wonder what if the entire French fleet had fallen lock, stock, barrel, and fully loyal to a fascist and anglophobe officer corps answering to the K.M. Wow! One of the largest warfleets in the world, with hardly anything of consequence stationed in French Indochine, IIRC.
 
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Carl S    RE:Alternative history?   11/18/2005 6:05:19 PM
"One of the largest warfleets in the world," Exactly how large would that be?
 
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Seeker    RE:Alternative history?   11/18/2005 6:23:35 PM
Based on Overys 1939 figures in "The Road to War" the combined French /German /Italian fleet could look as follows... BB/BC = 7+2+2 = 11 AC = 1 CA/CL= 18+11+22 =51 DD/DE= 72+50+126= 248 SS= 80+57+105 = 242 The 1939 RN fleet would be... BB=15 CV=6 CA/CL=54 DD/DE=145
 
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Carl S    RE:Alternative history?   11/19/2005 12:34:13 AM
Would your line of speculation subtract the French ships lost by British action in 1940, or German losses through August 1940? Or add in US ships transfered to the British? What is the "AC" in the Axis list? Any way to pop up numbers on hulls under construction? Numbers for British submarines?
 
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Seeker    RE:Alternative history?   11/19/2005 3:55:10 PM
Sorry was typing that as I was running out the door to dinner,it means CV . I chose Overys figure simply as a start point you will have to subtract what they lost after the start of the war.I'm assuming here Nazis get to French Fleet before RN does. UK SS are listed in 1939 as 54 James Levy in his THE ROYAL NAVY'S HOME FLEET IN WORLD WAR II, lists the 1939 fleets as French BB 7+ 3 building CV 1+ 1 building CA 7 CL 12+ 1 building DD 58+ 8 building SS 77+ 10 building Italy BB 4+ 4 building CV 0 CA 7 CL 14 +12building DD 49+ 12 building SS 105+ 14 building Italy BB 2+ 4 building CV 0 +1building CA 5 +3building CL 6 +3building DD 22+ 8 building SS 56+ 55 building UK & Dominions BB 15+ 7 building CV 6 +6building CA 15 CL 22 +23building modern & 27 pre 1924 cruisers DD 103+ 31 building modern & 78 pre 1924 Destroyers SS 57+ 11 building Some of the discrepency between these and the earlier figures reflect differing criteria. For example Germany has 22 destroyers strictly speaking, but they also had a dozen older [late 1920s] Torpedo boats that are closer to DE but similar to RN older Destroyers. Similarly they also had another 10-20 smaller torpedo boats with lesser armament that blur the destinction.
 
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Carl S    RE:Alternative history?   11/19/2005 4:30:27 PM
Getting the German to the French fleet before the Brits do is tough. the Brits were holding back to some extent bcause they thought the Germans had not taken control. As it was they still managed to render a fair portion hors d combat without trying very hard. The French ships would have to move out of harms way long before the Frano/German armistice. The Italians were a tougher proposition. It took over a year to hunt down & sink a significant part of their fleet. Of course if the Nazis do get control of several French fast battleships and crusiers it makes the early war raiding strategy move viable and forces the Brits to take greater risks in picking off the enemy. ships.
 
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Seeker    RE:Alternative history?   11/20/2005 12:17:10 PM
True enough since the RN attack occured in early July. But if their was a apriora annex to the invasion of France , that involved planning for the invasion of the UK [as a part of a staff study], then that problem could have been examined. Germans could have moved Fighter and bomber wings to deter any battleships sortie and put the fleet on alert or dispersed it to other French ports?
 
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