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Subject: Mubarak another Saddam?
newjarheaddean    1/28/2011 12:28:02 PM
AHOY, IMO yes, the chickens are coming home to roost i.e. the U.S. policy of supporting the tyrants is failing. I wander if the protesters are still heeding the call to prayer five times a day. Yes the old grape vine meeting place i.e. IMO were they are passing word. "I well bet my lucky star" G-day!
 
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YelliChink       1/28/2011 1:33:53 PM
70% chances that if Mubarak's ousted,  Muslim Brotherhood is coming to roost.
 
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newjarheaddean    BULLS EYE   1/28/2011 6:59:04 PM
AHOY,
 
Muslim Brotherhood, yes IMO the true force behind what we here in the west refer to as Al-queda.
 
Reasoning; how could Aymen al Zawarhiri (may have miss spelled that) leave/quit the Brotherhood i.e. mafia like organization and join a young upstart (Osama) and still have any face?
 
Like that joke I've mentioned about Osama bin Laden reading about all the new name changes with all the new organizations and departments of the U.S. It read i.e. as if Osama was saying "hmmmmm, I think we're going to stick with Al-queda" LOL.
 
But I thought yes what Mujahideen would get tired of being a Warrior of God?
 
I always have found it odd too that Osama referred to the 19 hijackers as brothers fellow muslins etc. but never Al-queda or warriors of god etc. 
 
I've also found it interesting how Osama referred to "taking the hostages" in his latest sermon, maybe he meant the tyrants.
 
And one last food for thought i would like to mention is... how could Osama survive in the area most say he is in if he had killed Ahmed shah Masud. It seems to me some of Masud's brothers would have found him by now. 

 
"I well bet my lucky star"
 
G-day!
 
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Lance Blade       1/29/2011 8:38:56 AM

"70% chances that if Mubarak's ousted,  Muslim Brotherhood is coming to roost. "

Sounds like a very accurate assessment. Do you have data to back up these figures? Most arabs I've spoke to say the Muslim Brotherhood is very, very overrated through being used as a decades-old scarecrow for the West. And that ordinary Egyptians actually don't care that much for islamists; most appear to want democracy and transparency. 
 
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YelliChink       1/29/2011 9:00:00 AM


Sounds like a very accurate assessment. Do you have data to back up these figures? Most arabs I've spoke to say the Muslim Brotherhood is very, very overrated through being used as a decades-old scarecrow for the West. And that ordinary Egyptians actually don't care that much for islamists; most appear to want democracy and transparency. 

A newly formed democracy is always weak and unstable. Anyone who can infiltrate the military, police and security, and without any regard in using violence, can overthrow it and install themselves as dictators.
 
1917 Russia
 
 1979 Iran
 
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Lance Blade       1/29/2011 9:22:17 AM
That is very true, but what the protesters want is free elections without Mubarak or his son running. They don't seem to want to destroy the established order, as such. There is always a risk, as you say, but it seemed to work (largely) in a dump like Kyrgyzstan or Georgia, so why not in Egypt or Tunisia? People there are not all morons, they have trade unions and political parties, as well as the army, to ensure society doesn't collapse and elections can be orderly. Extremists usually lose when the general population voices its opinions. They gain power through force, and so far there's no sign of Egyptians attacking the army proper... their beef is with the police. 
 
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newjarheaddean    a true pillar in the middle east   1/29/2011 10:42:16 AM
AHOY.
 
Sadly I don't know much at all about the personal feelings of the people in Egypt. Except it looks like they are feed up and want change now.

I know everyone is talking about democracy but its not base on the Constitution or anything like it, I don't believe.
 
And IMO they don't fight with army so they well be able to say the army started it, keeping the moral high ground.. IMO this is not going to be a vacuum its a black hole.
 
Everyone knows even if the Army was equipped like the U.S. Army they could not hold and secure Cairo much less the hold of Egypt

I got a kick out of this intelligent man last night on CNN old Ajami, he said I"ll paraphrase, "there is something wrong when you have two men with jet black hair, in their 70s and 80s (talking about Tunisia leader too) that are in charge of (in Egypt's case) 80 million people and they are wearied about when to dye their hair again. LOL he told it better.
 
This reminds me of what i told my old friend here awhile back, and that was "I was concerned about a man with a two foot comb over in the senate i.e. Sen. Levin from Michigan. I mean  this is immaturity, superficial and IMO calls into question his judgment. And now with Ajami statement IMO we can call all these guys judgment questionable.
 
I don't know why we here in the west (the people ) don't demand that we get to know the Bearded ones as Ajami called them. Like the Taliban using the population for cover/hostages etc. we could see them for the back woods bookthumpers they are.
 
I once heard Mubarak said the Egyptian Army is for Egypt, as in defending against out side aggressors. But that may come back to bit him now.
 
And I know one thing the old MUSAD (Israeli secret service) is not on every street corner.
 
"I well bet my lucky star"
 
G-day!
 
 
 
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Lance Blade       1/29/2011 11:18:19 AM
In Russia, 1993, there was a deadlock between the president and parliament, which was filled with communists and nationalists at that time. The army eventually stepped in and dislodged the reactionary coalition by physically firing shells from a tank into parliament. The communists and nationalists were defeated in the following elections and never recovered. Also, even though Yeltsin ordered a commando raid on the building, the head of the special forces refused on the grounds that civilian casualties would be too high. 

In Thailand the army fairly regularly takes over and imposes marital law as elections turn sour or if elected officials abuse their powers and incur too much public wrath. After a while, they re-establish civilian rule again. 

The army can act as a guarantor of democracy, providing they retain a sense of independence and see themselves for what they are: the ultimate instruments of protecting a country's citizens. It's not that they're above politics, it's that they serve whoever is elected by the will of the people. Ideally anyway... nobody really expected this much patience and tolerance from the Egyptian army. People saw them as more of the regime's henchmen. Looks like they were wrong. 
 
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YelliChink       1/29/2011 11:18:44 AM

That is very true, but what the protesters want is free elections without Mubarak or his son running. They don't seem to want to destroy the established order, as such. There is always a risk, as you say, but it seemed to work (largely) in a dump like Kyrgyzstan or Georgia, so why not in Egypt or Tunisia? People there are not all morons, they have trade unions and political parties, as well as the army, to ensure society doesn't collapse and elections can be orderly. Extremists usually lose when the general population voices its opinions. They gain power through force, and so far there's no sign of Egyptians attacking the army proper... their beef is with the police. 


I wonder how that M113 is burnt.....
 
Anyway. There is no Muslim Brotherhood in Georgia Republic, and the thing happened in Kyrgyzstan is not what it appears to be. Tunisia is a bit different because that country is under France's sphere of influence, both politically and culturally. Egypt, on the other hand, is the base of Muslim Brotherhood, and they make themselves obvious on the streets since Friday. People there aren't morons, and only morons make themselves victims of violent acts. Whatever the beef is, it doesn't matter once the process of normalization begins.
 
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YelliChink       1/29/2011 11:28:19 AM


The army can act as a guarantor of democracy, providing they retain a sense of independence and see themselves for what they are: the ultimate instruments of protecting a country's citizens. It's not that they're above politics, it's that they serve whoever is elected by the will of the people. Ideally anyway... nobody really expected this much patience and tolerance from the Egyptian army. People saw them as more of the regime's henchmen. Looks like they were wrong. 
 
In any case, the political tradition of Egypt is deeply rooted in Mamelukes. The Egyptian military is not, and can not, be guarantor of any political system other than themselves.
 
So the question is not whom the army supports, but rather who are the army. And that's why Mubarak scares the Muslim Brotherhood to death.
 
 
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YelliChink       1/29/2011 12:27:58 PM
 

Potential Serious Danger

"If regime change occurs in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood would take the helm, and that would have incalculable consequences for the region," says Shaked. The Israeli government has noted with concern the fact that, even after 30 years of peace, Egypt's army is still equipped and trained mainly with a possible war against Israel in mind.

A cancellation of the peace treaty would open up a new front with the 11th largest army in the world, which is equipped with modern American weapons. But what Israel fears more than a -- somewhat unlikely -- armed conflict with Egypt is an alliance between an Islamist regime in Cairo and Hamas, which considers itself an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Today the Egyptian army tries to stop -- albeit hesitantly -- weapons smuggling from Sinai to Gaza, the main supply route for Hamas. An Egyptian regime that opened the border with Gaza for arms deliveries would pose a serious danger to Israel.

 

Shaked considers the West's demands for more openness and democracy in Egypt to be a fatal mistake. "It is an illusion to believe that the dictator Mubarak could be replaced by a democracy," he says. "Egypt is still not capable of democracy," he adds, pointing out that the illiteracy rate is over 20 percent, to give just one example. The Muslim Brotherhood is the only real alternative, he opines, which would have devastating consequences for the West. "They will not change their anti-Western attitude when they come to power. That has not happened (with Islamist movements) anywhere: neither in Sudan, Iran nor Afghanistan."

Ultimately the choice is between a pro- or an anti-Western dictatorship, says Shaked. "It is in our interest that someone from Mubarak's inner circle takes over his legacy, at any cost." In the process, it is not possible to rule out massive bloodshed in the short term, he says. "It would not be the first time that riots in Egypt were brutally crushed."
 
=========================
 
Yet another choice between two evils. I hate things like this.
 
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