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Subject: ALIENS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING - SERIOUSLY!
RockyMTNClimber    6/21/2007 12:30:31 PM
This is to put a final nail in the coffin of global warming. Man can not change the earth's tempurature. No evidence has ever or will ever compell science to say that. This is a silly notion played for political and religious resons. Below is a well thought out essay that everyone who believes in global warming, leprichans, and the stork that delivers babies should read. Check Six Rocky "Aliens Cause Global Warming" A lecture by Michael Crichton California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA January 17, 2003 My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming. Charting this progression of belief will be my task today. Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy. I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack. It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be a very good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world. But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought---prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan's memorable phrase, "a candle in a demon haunted world." And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free. But let's look at how it came to pass. Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation: N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involv
 
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Asymmetric    Post Count   7/3/2007 9:05:06 PM
 

Upon rereading, Rockies comments to my post I seem to be being criticised for not having a high enough post count of scientific matters. I don’t see why this should invalidate my arguments. I prefer to stay out of arguments that are not only outside my field of research but also only tentatively about physics (arguably physics is all prevalent in almost any subject). The only reason I replied to this thread is Michael Crichton’s total disregard for the scientific method and it had gone on for almost 60 posts with no one else commenting on this. Also looking back on my own post it does come off as little rhetoric heavy, what can I say? I’ve got an axe to grind on this issue.

 

I do from time to time talk about physics on these forums. See bottom of this thread

 

Herc the Merc getting the wrong end of the stick about the Schrödinger equation:

There is also a string of posts out there I did about a year ago for Godofgamblers about the viability of sending a mass into orbit via a cannon. There’s also a few with me ranting about plasma windows and even event horizons as a theoretical form of defence. Arguing with someone (I think it was DarthAmerica, but it may have been someone else, it was some time ago) about the common misuse of the 2nd law of thermodynamics, the law of entropy. There’s some with me talking about mounting railguns on naval warships and the difficulties of maintaining them in the presence of saltwater, although this is more of an engineering problem.

 

So I do post every so often, on the whole I think strategy page has one of the highest mean user’s understanding of physics for a private non-scientific website. Probably down too the fact that many of the posters have engineering backgrounds in the military or civilian life and those that don’t frequently have the good decency to read up on the subject before commenting. Sure there isn’t to many articles on superstring theory or relating to Higgs Boson particles but that’s not to be expected from this site.

 
 
 
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Asymmetric    Post Count   7/3/2007 9:30:59 PM
 

Upon rereading, Rockies comments to my post I seem to be being criticised for not having a high enough post count of scientific matters. I don’t see why this should invalidate my arguments. I prefer to stay out of arguments that are not only outside my field of research but also only tentatively about physics (arguably physics is all prevalent in almost any subject). The only reason I replied to this thread is Michael Crichton’s total disregard for the scientific method and it had gone on for almost 60 posts with no one else commenting on this. Also looking back on my own post it does come off as little rhetoric heavy, what can I say? I’ve got an axe to grind on this issue.

 

I do from time to time talk about physics on these forums. See bottom of this thread

 

Herc the Merc getting the wrong end of the stick about the Schrödinger equation:

There is also a string of posts out there I did about a year ago for Godofgamblers about the viability of sending a mass into orbit via a cannon. There’s also a few with me ranting about plasma windows and even event horizons as a theoretical form of defence. Arguing with someone (I think it was DarthAmerica, but it may have been someone else, it was some time ago) about the common misuse of the 2nd law of thermodynamics, the law of entropy. There’s some with me talking about mounting railguns on naval warships and the difficulties of maintaining them in the presence of saltwater, although this is more of an engineering problem.

 

So I do post every so often, on the whole I think strategy page has one of the highest mean user’s understanding of physics for a private non-scientific website. Probably down too the fact that many of the posters have engineering backgrounds in the military or civilian life and those that don’t frequently have the good decency to read up on the subject before commenting. Sure there isn’t to many articles on superstring theory or relating to Higgs Boson particles but that’s not to be expected from this site.

 
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Asymmetric reply   7/3/2007 10:52:16 PM
 
You were criticized for a political hack job on religion, conservatism, and the big bang, that had nothing to do with the topic. I did appreciate reading the post that was a rebuttal to Crichtons.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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Asymmetric    IPCC   7/4/2007 12:46:58 AM

 I have to thank you for making my case for me in such clear terms!!!!! You are a person who like many on your side of the debate refuses to talk science and uses the debate forum to insult those on the opposite side of the issue from you. Why didn't you comment on  any of the other science peices that have been posted here? Curious.

 

This is what I was referring to previously.

 

 

 

I had recently finished an argument, with an intelligent design sympathizer, which had dissolved into a pissing contest, leading me to lashing out in the way that I did. Although I stand by my comments, I admit they were out of place and somewhat obscure.

 

However the simple fact is that as long as you don’t publish your work in peer reviewed literature the scientific community won’t take you seriously. Michael Crichton Doesn’t. It won’t hold up to scrutiny.

 

Now I’m not going to jump up and explain an environmental study that explains human activity effecting climate change. Why? I simply haven’t done the research myself nor do I have a background in environmental studies. What I will say is I have read the summary of the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, formed 1988) most recent report I am satisfied that they have been reviewed by over 2,500 scientists and has followed the scientific method.

 

The IPCC’s statement:

 

"Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy. Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations"

 

This has been approved by The National Academy of Sciences (USA), The American Meteorological Society, The American Geophysical Union and The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), to name only the US institutions.

 

I suggest you read the IPCC’s report and if you’re still not satisfied beyond reasonable doubt pick a fight with them, but you’re going to have to turn up with some better ammunition to throw at them than Michael Crichton’s work.


 
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Asymmetric    Error   7/4/2007 1:30:20 AM
The Above link was not the intended one, although it is still an interesting read.
 
This was the link I intended
 
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    IPCC was not science!   7/4/2007 11:16:44 AM

Thank you again for making my point! I did review your report and in fact Michael Crichton’s work fits this quite nicely. The entire report is based upon hand picked data sets to conclude that man is significantly effecting global warming. If you know anything about the scientific process (something you should if you are a physicist) then you would not have bothered to present that report as a rebuttal. Look at where the data comes from in the report and when it was collected. They scarcely went back 3-4 decades. For a world system that is 3 billion + years old that is not a representative sample. It is simply hogwash. I have already posted data showing the earths temperature variations over a broader timeline and those clearly can not be man made. Your argument does not stand up, even to Crichton’s editorial. For your convenience attached is a critique of the UN report you posted which was widely panned at the time it was released!

 

There is no evidence that Man is contributing to global warming. Zip.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

      

From your source:

 Thermal expansion 0.42 ± 0.12 1.6 ± 0.5

Glaciers and ice caps 0.50 ± 0.18 0.77 ± 0.22

Greenland Ice Sheet 0.05 ± 0.12 0.21 ± 0.07

Antarctic Ice Sheet 0.14 ± 0.41 0.21 ± 0.35

Sum of individual climate 1.1 ± 0.5 2.8 ± 0.7contributions to sea level rise

Observed total sea level rise 1.8 ± 0.5a 3.1 ± 0.7a

Difference(Observed minus sum of 0.7 ± 0.7 0.3 ± 1.0estimated climate contributions)

 
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PlatypusMaximus       7/4/2007 11:44:13 AM
predictweather.com/global_warming/index.asp
 
or
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    IPCC report, Axes to grind....   7/4/2007 1:09:03 PM

 I have to thank you for making my case for me in such clear terms!!!!! You are a person who like many on your side of the debate refuses to talk science and uses the debate forum to insult those on the opposite side of the issue from you. Why didn't you comment on  any of the other science peices that have been posted here? Curious.

 

This is what I was referring to previously.


 


 


 


I had recently finished an argument, with an intelligent design sympathizer, which had dissolved into a pissing contest, leading me to lashing out in the way that I did. Although I stand by my comments, I admit they were out of place and somewhat obscure.


 


However the simple fact is that as long as you don’t publish your work in peer reviewed literature the scientific community won’t take you seriously. Michael Crichton Doesn’t. It won’t hold up to scrutiny.


 


Now I’m not going to jump up and explain an environmental study that explains human activity effecting climate change. Why? I simply haven’t done the research myself nor do I have a background in environmental studies. What I will say is I have read the summary of the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, formed 1988) most recent report I am satisfied that they have been reviewed by over 2,500 scientists and has followed the scientific method.


 


The IPCC’s statement:


 


"Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy. Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations"


 


This has been approved by The National Academy of Sciences (USA), The American Meteorological Society, The American Geophysical Union and The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), to name only the US institutions.


 


I suggest you read the IPCC’s report and if you’re still not satisfied beyond reasonable doubt pick a fight with them, but you’re going to have to turn up with some better ammunition to throw at them than Michael Crichton’s work.





ht***tp://www.sepp.org/Archive/NewSEPP/ipccreview.htm

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has not yet officially released its draft Third Assessment Report (TAR). Even the brief "Summary for Policy Makers" is not yet officially available. And yet, news stories are already claiming that these documents provide more evidence to support concerns about significant global warming.

Many of the climate experts involved in the SEPP briefing are listed by the IPCC as technical reviewers and have carefully examined both the IPCC Report and its Summary. They have concluded that the Summary seriously distorts and misrepresents the Report.


"That's not surprising, says Singer, "since the Summary is a political document, put together by a few scientific bureaucrats - not by the scientists who wrote the TAR." A fair, careful examination of the evidence, and the IPCC report, shows clearly that:

  • The earth's atmosphere has not warmed over the past 20 years.
  • The last century is not the warmest in the last 1000 years.
  • Man's use of fossil fuels has not had a perceptible effect on global climate.
  • Even if the earth were to warm slightly, and atmospheric CO2 were to increase, the effects would be mostly beneficial.
  • The only support for serious future warming comes from theoretical climate models - but they give only imperfect simulations of the real atmosphere, are not validated by actual observations, and are incapable of making valid predictions.
  • The Kyoto Protocol to restrict energy use will cause serious economic harm, but will not alter global climate trends.

    The full IPCC report, which virtually no reporters or politicians have read, reveals that the only significant warming
 
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AdamB       7/4/2007 4:07:29 PM
If global warming exists, then why has it been raining in Britain nearly every day for a month?  Why was June the third-wettest June in Britain with only the Junes of 1912 and 1982 wetter?
 
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Herald1234       7/4/2007 5:21:48 PM

 

 


While I think myself and Herald are pointing our fingers at different sides of the political spectrum I think it’s safe to say we both agree there is a vast amount of hysteria and political machination’s associated with the subject. I also think it is fair to say we both agree that human activity is at least in part responsible for climate change.


 


Now to what extent the environment will change and what political response is needed is where the answers become a little trickier…




We agree that there is an enormous Human impact on the Earth. Within my lifetime I see that 80% more than the the original base number of Human beings has profoundly changed the range of the United States in ways, that people, unless they see it through constant travel, do not understand. Let me put it in a fashion that will drive the point home in a way that people could understand. Six hundred years ago there were no horses or cattle in North America. There were millions of bison. The average Human population density was about less than 1 person per square kilometer inside what would be the United States. The technology was about where Humanity was in the Middle East circa 8000 BCE or maybe very late paleolithic or very early copper age. 
 
The habitat was rather temperate forests, deserts, and plains and undeveloped with relatively little agriculture or Human imprint in evidence.    
There were villages, but no organized cities to be seen anywhere in US territory.
 
The present situation? Look around you. Just one measurement. There are about 30 Human beings per square kilometer of US territory.
 
The countryside is agriculture regimented. Even the forests are for the most part managed. We have a transcontinental and intercontinenal infrastructure that makes us one of the most heavily overburdened regions on Earth. the only other region that might exceed us on a continenetal scale is western Europe.
 
Horses, kudzu, cows, varieties of European rabbit, chickens, pigs, rats, etc. not native to this continent swarm all over our range. How about dogs and cats? We smelt metals in the millions of tonnes and burn coal in the millions of cubic meters extracted either from shaft or surface mining. We have an underground coal mine fire that has burned for almost forty years and is projected to burn for maybe a century before it goes out in West Virginia.
 
We have West Virginia!
 
Do you see what I drive at?
 
You cannot say that humans have NO IMPACT.
 
The question is what kind of impact does the Human animal have upon the range. How much burden does he put upon it?
 
That is what I ask scientists to reasonably investigate. It is the question that I ask as a reasonable observer.
 
Frankly, when I determine that frogs who survived two Chixculub events are in definite danger of extinction, I'm terrified.
 
That is not a single species like a passenger pidgeon. That is an entire ORDER. They survived in various forms for at least 250 million years. What is killing them off?
 
To put what that means in perspective;
 
a. except for birds do you see any dinosaurs wandering around?
b. or do you see as many birds as you used to as a youngster?
 
Think about it
 
Herald
 
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