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Subject: ALIENS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING - SERIOUSLY!
RockyMTNClimber    6/21/2007 12:30:31 PM
This is to put a final nail in the coffin of global warming. Man can not change the earth's tempurature. No evidence has ever or will ever compell science to say that. This is a silly notion played for political and religious resons. Below is a well thought out essay that everyone who believes in global warming, leprichans, and the stork that delivers babies should read. Check Six Rocky "Aliens Cause Global Warming" A lecture by Michael Crichton California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA January 17, 2003 My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming. Charting this progression of belief will be my task today. Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy. I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack. It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be a very good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world. But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought---prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan's memorable phrase, "a candle in a demon haunted world." And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free. But let's look at how it came to pass. Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation: N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involv
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Polution Defined   6/29/2007 11:02:21 AM
Eruption column of volcanic ash and gas rising above Mount Pinatubo on June 12, 1991http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/resources/AshCloud.jpg" width=400 border=0>
 
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Ehran       6/29/2007 12:29:01 PM
rocky do you actually read what you quote?
 
please take note of the last line in particular.
 
prc admits to 25.5 MT of so2 emissions what it actually amounts to god only knows.  they also admit that emissions are going up not down despite their efforts to clean up.
 
the usa emits nearly 20 MT of so2 every year. 
 
that's 2.5 times pinatubo's release just between those two sources EVERY year.  factor in the rest of the world and you would likely double that.
 
tropical rain forest buzzard commonly recovers alright but the subsoil is very poor and it takes a LONG time to recover to anything like it's natural state.  this is especially common with the amazonian forests where cleaning it down to topsoil results in what might as well be pavement in just a couple years.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Data source?   6/29/2007 12:42:53 PM

rocky do you actually read what you quote?

 

please take note of the last line in particular.

 

prc admits to 25.5 MT of so2 emissions what it actually amounts to god only knows.  they also admit that emissions are going up not down despite their efforts to clean up.

 

the usa emits nearly 20 MT of so2 every year. 

 

that's 2.5 times pinatubo's release just between those two sources EVERY year.  factor in the rest of the world and you would likely double that.

 

tropical rain forest buzzard commonly recovers alright but the subsoil is very poor and it takes a LONG time to recover to anything like it's natural state.  this is especially common with the amazonian forests where cleaning it down to topsoil results in what might as well be pavement in just a couple years.



 
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Herald1234    SOME DATA   6/29/2007 1:56:30 PM
TOMS site

Human activities versus volcanic emissions.

One thing you will notice is that you average output over time. A volcanic eruption produces a huge short interval  pollution spike, but anthropogenic activity averaged over time far outstrips the total volcanic eruption output in the parts per billion  atmosphere of the long interval period.

The US has over the last two decades capped its output at about  its 1987 emissions levels while the PRC bandits have nearly doubled theirs.

EPI index puts the US at 28 in global ranking. We have a great deal to do to improve.

http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/8920/environmentalpollutionrtc3.jpg"> 

.Notice where China and India are?

That does not let the US off the hook. We should do much better. I'd like us to do as well as Canada and ideally better than the United Kingdom.

Herald




 
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RockyMTNClimber    Now look at the report I posted....   6/29/2007 2:55:06 PM
The climactic eruption released the accumulated vapor in the estimated 5 km^3 of erupted dacite. About 6.25 wt percent of dissolved water was also degassed from melt during ascent and eruption; scaling to the volume of erupted dacite implies an additional release of 395 Mt of H2O. Additional yields of SO2, CO2, and Cl from degassing of melt were minor to insignificant during ascent and eruption. Thus, the minimum volatile emissions for the climactic eruption--from preeruption vapor phase and degassing of melt--were 17 Mt SO2, 42 Mt CO2, 3 Mt Cl, and 491 Mt H2O.
 
Lets see, 5 cubic kilometers of dacite (essentially pulverized glass & rock), 395 megatons of water, the minimum volitile emisions from pre eruption phase of an additional 17 megatons of  SO2 the list goes on.
 
This was one event among millions taking place every day (mother Earth burps all kinds of caustic nasties day long every day, ever do a SAR in an abandoned mine? Better bring your Scott's gear...) there is no comparison from mother nature to man.
 
Man's activity on earth has nothing to do with global tempurature changes. Zip.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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RockyMTNClimber       7/1/2007 3:44:15 PM
h***ttp://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/450392,CST-EDT-REF30b.article
 
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RockyMTNClimber    More Science    7/1/2007 3:45:17 PM

h***ttp://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/450392,CST-EDT-REF30b.article


Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny

June 30, 2007
In his new book, The Assault on Reason, Al Gore pleads, "We must stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudo-studies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public's ability to discern the truth." Gore repeatedly asks that science and reason displace cynical political posturing as the central focus of public discourse.

If Gore really means what he writes, he has an opportunity to make a difference by leading by example on the issue of global warming.

A cooperative and productive discussion of global warming must be open and honest regarding the science. Global warming threats ought to be studied and mitigated, and they should not be deliberately exaggerated as a means of building support for a desired political position.

Many of the assertions Gore makes in his movie, ''An Inconvenient Truth,'' have been refuted by science, both before and after he made them. Gore can show sincerity in his plea for scientific honesty by publicly acknowledging where science has rebutted his claims.

For example, Gore claims that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and global warming is to blame. Yet the September 2006 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate reported, "Glaciers are growing in the Himalayan Mountains, confounding global warming alarmists who recently claimed the glaciers were shrinking and that global warming was to blame."

Gore claims the snowcap atop Africa's Mt. Kilimanjaro is shrinking and that global warming is to blame. Yet according to the November 23, 2003, issue of Nature magazine, "Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think that deforestation of the mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine."

Gore claims global warming is causing more tornadoes. Yet the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in February that there has been no scientific link established between global warming and tornadoes.

Gore claims global warming is causing more frequent and severe hurricanes. However, hurricane expert Chris Landsea published a study on May 1 documenting that hurricane activity is no higher now than in decades past. Hurricane expert William Gray reported just a few days earlier, on April 27, that the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic coast has declined in the past 40 years. Hurricane scientists reported in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters that global warming enhances wind shear, which will prevent a significant increase in future hurricane activity.

Gore claims global warming is causing an expansion of African deserts. However, the Sept. 16, 2002, issue of New Scientist reports, "Africa's deserts are in 'spectacular' retreat . . . making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa."

Gore argues Greenland is in rapid meltdown, and that this threatens to raise sea levels by 20 feet. But according to a 2005 study in the Journal of Glaciology, "the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins and growing inland, with a small overall mass gain." In late 2006, researchers at the Danish Meteorological Institute reported that the past two decades were the coldest for Greenland since the 1910s.

Gore claims the Antarctic ice sheet is melting because of global warming. Yet the Jan. 14, 2002, issue of Nature magazine reported Antarctica as a whole has been dramatically cooling for decades. More recently, scientists reported in the September 2006 issue of the British journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Series A: Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, that satellite measurements of the Antarctic ice sheet showed significant growth between 1992 and 2003. And the U.N. Climate Change panel reported in February 2007 that Antarctica is unlikely to lose any ice mass during the remainder of the century.

Each of these cases provides an opportunity for Gore to lead by example in his call for an end to the distortion of science. Will he rise to the occasion? Only t

 
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Jeff_F_F       7/2/2007 9:43:05 AM

Jeff_F_F.... My comment on a Feverish planet was just a riff on Al Gore's "Our planet has a fever" speech to the US Senate, not a belief. I would like to ask, though, if we ever have the ability to fine tune the Earth's temperature, what is that temperature and who gets to decide what it will be. I believe different countries will have different optimal temperatures. What is a significant temperature change BTW? 1 degree Celsius or 1/2 or 2, + or - over the next hundred years, and cui bono?



If anyone had the power to deliberately control the weather the only fair solution would be to keep it the same as it is right now. Any change would cause benefits to some and losses to others. For example if we warmed it back up to the point 23 million years ago the sahara and gobi deserts and much of africa would return to the lush conditions that formerly existed there, the forests of antarctica would regrow, etc. On the other hand changes in weather patterns might well make the crops grown in many parts of the world no longer able to be grown, etc, and this could easily result in massive famine. If predictions of sea-level raise occur this would also cause a lot of problems, especially to the industrialized world. However we don't have the power to deliberately control the weather, and once the current interglacial is over the problems caused by global warming are nothing compared to those that will be posed by the next ice age.
 
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Jeff_F_F       7/2/2007 10:18:57 AM


Remember the Channel 4 program I mentioned above. Well one
of the items that stuck in my mind was the piece on Al Gore. They showed his
presentation of a graph that showed temperature over time in an upper line and
a CO2 graph over the same time on a lower line. The peaks and troughs exactly
matched. Al said that this demonstrated the link between CO2 and temperature
rise and that CO2 caused the rise. When the “sceptic” climatologist looked at
the data, he discovered that the CO2 line was correct, but that Al Gore had
shifted it 800 years leftward to get the match. In fact, the CO2 rise lags in
time behind the temperature rise by that amount.


Global warming causes the CO2 rise, not the other way round.


The biggest reservoir of carbon (after rocks) is
the oceans. CO2 is absorbed by the sea at the air/water interface. Rough cold
seas absorb more CO2 the warm calm seas so when the Earth warms up, the oceans
slowly warm up too, absorbing less CO2 in the process. That explains the delay
between the temperature rise and the CO2 rise.



If shifting the data works exactly that is a powerful argument that A) Al Gore is full of it and B) the cause effect correlation is reverse. I've seen plenty of comparisons of Temp and CO2 and none of them were an *exact* match, just rough correlation.
 
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paul1970       7/2/2007 11:01:19 AM





Remember the Channel 4 program I mentioned above. Well one
of the items that stuck in my mind was the piece on Al Gore. They showed his
presentation of a graph that showed temperature over time in an upper line and
a CO2 graph over the same time on a lower line. The peaks and troughs exactly
matched. Al said that this demonstrated the link between CO2 and temperature
rise and that CO2 caused the rise. When the “sceptic” climatologist looked at
the data, he discovered that the CO2 line was correct, but that Al Gore had
shifted it 800 years leftward to get the match. In fact, the CO2 rise lags in
time behind the temperature rise by that amount.




Global warming causes the CO2 rise, not the other way round.



The biggest reservoir of carbon (after rocks) is
the oceans. CO2 is absorbed by the sea at the air/water interface. Rough cold
seas absorb more CO2 the warm calm seas so when the Earth warms up, the oceans
slowly warm up too, absorbing less CO2 in the process. That explains the delay
between the temperature rise and the CO2 rise.





If shifting the data works exactly that is a powerful argument that A) Al Gore is full of it and B) the cause effect correlation is reverse. I've seen plenty of comparisons of Temp and CO2 and none of them were an *exact* match, just rough correlation.


if that documentary is the Martin Durkin one then I would suggest that before anyone uses it as "evidence" that they do a bit of research into the man and the program and those quoted in it.
 
Paul
 
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