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Subject: ALIENS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING - SERIOUSLY!
RockyMTNClimber    6/21/2007 12:30:31 PM
This is to put a final nail in the coffin of global warming. Man can not change the earth's tempurature. No evidence has ever or will ever compell science to say that. This is a silly notion played for political and religious resons. Below is a well thought out essay that everyone who believes in global warming, leprichans, and the stork that delivers babies should read. Check Six Rocky "Aliens Cause Global Warming" A lecture by Michael Crichton California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA January 17, 2003 My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming. Charting this progression of belief will be my task today. Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy. I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack. It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be a very good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world. But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought---prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan's memorable phrase, "a candle in a demon haunted world." And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free. But let's look at how it came to pass. Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation: N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involv
 
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paul1970       1/8/2008 4:51:21 AM

Paul, the above post is a Science Daily article that covers a Duke University study on the ocean temps in the North Atlantic. As you can see the data does not support MMGW argument. It is not enough to say that temps have or may be changing, there-fore man is to blame. That is silly. The people harking the MMGW argument are seeking political-economic changes and basing their demands upon acknowledged bad science. Posted above on this thread is also several analysis showing most atmospheric scientists do not believe in the MMGW craze any more than I do.

 

Go with the science not the cultist world view. Drill More Oil.


 

Check Six

 

Rocky




of course the big problem is that you cannot measure the changes happening right now without man's input....
so it is impossible to 100% say whether man is having an effect on the natural change or not since you cannot remove the influence for any study.
 
one thing is pretty certain and that is that we are in a warming cycle. measurements of the ice sheet say it is down big this century....
 
when I was at school all the science was saying about the next ice age and there was mention at all about a warming trend... but I guess more, better research has gone in since then rather than we have changed from cooling to warming without it being predicted and all in the space of 30 years.....???
 
but since many scientists say the sort of stuff we pump out into the environment does have a warming effect then surely you error on that side rather than ignoring it... the only real reason to ignore it would be if there was nothing that could be done to reverse the trend before it was too late so live it while you can...   :-)
 
I appreciate that to do anything worthwile would harm the world economy but since I don't like China and am not bothered about India then I say force all to reign in and it also has the benefit of stopping China becoming even more a world threat than it is now... that should suit all those "war with China is enevitable" lot....    :-)
 
 
as for Eric the Red... is he the one they say found America first and gone down the east coast? or is he supposed to have sailed all around the north pole and across Russia?
 
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Heorot    So much for Global Warming!   1/8/2008 2:59:10 PM

First off, the Hockey stick graph has been totally debunked. It turns out that the algorithm used to generate the graph will generate the same greaph even if random data is used. If you google using the terms ?hockey stick graph debunked? you will return 10 pages of sites for you to choose from.

 

Rather than heading for global warming, we could be entering a new cold period. See the two websites below.

 

Ht*p://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html

Ht*p://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html

 

Snip from Ht*p://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html:

 

?We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun?s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles are so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles? behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%.?

 

And from Ht*p://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html

 

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.


 
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RockyMTNClimber    Paul Reply : Man's Greatest Achievement!   1/9/2008 11:40:58 AM
I appreciate that to do anything worthwile would harm the world economy but since I don't like China and am not bothered about India then I say force all to reign in and it also has the benefit of stopping China becoming even more a world threat than it is now... that should suit all those "war with China is inevitable" lot....    :-)
 
as for Eric the Red... is he the one they say found America first and gone down the east coast? or is he supposed to have sailed all around the north pole and across Russia<Paul
 
Paul, My entire point on this thread is that we do not know enough to definitely say we are changing anything. In fact, at this time the science seems to be leaning away from the whole concept of MMGW. As evidence of that I give you the long list of research quoted on this thread (mostly peer reviewed) that directly or partly contradicts the basic tenets of MMGW and the entirely dubious IPCC report.
 
I do believe that the world economy is the most impressive achievement of man's short life on this ball of rock. By that I mean the western economic boom of the last 150 years that has raised billions of people out of poverty and is helping the rest. To the extent that there are significant problems with remaining world poverty and disease it is because of despotic leaders who are stealing their people's resources and the western aid flowing towards them. We should do everything possible to maintain our economic growth and help other people throw off the shackles of tyranny (through economic diplomacy when ever possible, not war). That can be accomplished while still respecting the environment and cleaning it up at the same time. The Western World has proved that!
 
Like it or not, that fabulous world economy is driven by oil and hydro-carbons. We need to find those resources and bring them to market as efficiently as possible to maintain the health and growth of this economy. If we fail to do that we will backslide and cause more poverty, disease, despotism. Ultimately that is what I think the MMGW debate is all about. In my opinion the conclusion in unavoidable: Drill More OIL!
 
Eric the Red is an interesting character and he is worth a Google. His presence on this thread was to point out that the North Atlantic, like the entire planet, is a dynamic environment and changes allot all by itself causing droughts, ice ages, and times of relative calm. Eric's the Red's people died not because of their SUV's or their cattle's flatulence but because the local environment changed and they couldn't adapt. We will face the same thing if we live here long enough. There will be another ice age, there will be another drought of biblical proportions, there will be more and bigger calamities. Not because of man's influence but because there always has been. We need to plan for those calamaties not assign them some mystic cultist status. That is counter productive.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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