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Subject: ALIENS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING - SERIOUSLY!
RockyMTNClimber    6/21/2007 12:30:31 PM
This is to put a final nail in the coffin of global warming. Man can not change the earth's tempurature. No evidence has ever or will ever compell science to say that. This is a silly notion played for political and religious resons. Below is a well thought out essay that everyone who believes in global warming, leprichans, and the stork that delivers babies should read. Check Six Rocky "Aliens Cause Global Warming" A lecture by Michael Crichton California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA January 17, 2003 My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming. Charting this progression of belief will be my task today. Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy. I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack. It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be a very good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world. But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought---prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan's memorable phrase, "a candle in a demon haunted world." And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free. But let's look at how it came to pass. Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation: N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involv
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Next Stop, Global Cooling.   1/3/2008 12:49:17 PM
In my ongoing attempt to keep Strategy Pagers up to date on the MMGW issue a new analysis is available from Dr Oleg Sorokhtin, Atmospherical Scientist. If you have taken the time to read all of this thread you now realize that Man Made Global Warming is a hoax. Tempuratures peaked in 1934 and have been slowly declining ever since. 

Who are we going to blame for this tragedy?

Check Six

Rocky


MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) ? Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.

Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.

The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.

This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.

It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizations—in particular, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Signed by 150 countries, it exemplifies the impact of scientific delusion on big politics and economics. The authors and enthusiasts of the Kyoto Protocol based their assumptions on an erroneous idea. As a result, developed countries waste huge amounts of money to fight industrial pollution of the atmosphere. What if it is a Don Quixote?s duel with the windmill?

Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming. At any rate, there is no scientific evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is too simple to be true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes are on in the atmosphere, especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is not so much radiated in space as carried by air currents—an entirely different mechanism, which cannot cause global warming.

The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions—a point proved theoretically and empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice shield, taken with bore specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research station Vostok, show that there are close links between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we cannot be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect.

Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide concentration changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the greatest carbon dioxide depository, with concentrations 60-90 times larger than in the atmosphere. When the ocean?s surface warms up, it produces the ?champagne effect.? Compare a foamy spurt out of a warm bottle with wine pouring smoothly when served properly cold.

Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which evaporates to add to industrial pollution—a factor we cannot deny. However, man-caused pollution is negligible here. If industrial pollution with carbon dioxide keeps at its present-day 5-7 billion metric tons a year, it will not change global temperatures up to the year 2100. The change will be too small for humans to feel even if the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions doubles.

Carbon dioxide cannot be bad for the climate. On the contrary, it is food for plants, and so is beneficial to life on Earth. Bearing out this point was the Green Revolution—the phenomenal global increase in farm yields in the mid-20th century. Numerous experiments also prove a direct proportion between harvest a

 
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paul1970       1/4/2008 7:55:04 AM

In my ongoing attempt to keep Strategy Pagers up to date on the MMGW issue a new analysis is available from Dr Oleg Sorokhtin, Atmospherical Scientist. If you have taken the time to read all of this thread you now realize that Man Made Global Warming is a hoax. Tempuratures peaked in 1934 and have been slowly declining ever since. 

Who are we going to blame for this tragedy?

Check Six

Rocky


MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) ? Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.

Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.


The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.


Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.


This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.


It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizations—in particular, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Signed by 150 countries, it exemplifies the impact of scientific delusion on big politics and economics. The authors and enthusiasts of the Kyoto Protocol based their assumptions on an erroneous idea. As a result, developed countries waste huge amounts of money to fight industrial pollution of the atmosphere. What if it is a Don Quixote?s duel with the windmill?


Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming. At any rate, there is no scientific evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is too simple to be true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes are on in the atmosphere, especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is not so much radiated in space as carried by air currents—an entirely different mechanism, which cannot cause global warming.


The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions—a point proved theoretically and empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice shield, taken with bore specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research station Vostok, show that there are close links between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we cannot be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect.


Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide concentration changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the greatest carbon dioxide depository, with concentrations 60-90 times larger than in the atmosphere. When the ocean?s surface warms up, it produces the ?champagne effect.? Compare a foamy spurt out of a warm bottle with wine pouring smoothly when served properly cold.


Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which evaporates to add to industrial pollution—a factor we cannot deny. However, man-caused pollution is negligible here. If industrial pollution with carbon dioxide keeps at its present-day 5-7 billion metric tons a year, it will not change global temperatures up to the year 2100. The change will be too small for humans to feel even if the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions doubles.


Car

 
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paul1970       1/4/2008 8:13:00 AM




In my ongoing attempt to keep Strategy Pagers up to date on the MMGW issue a new analysis is available from Dr Oleg Sorokhtin, Atmospherical Scientist. If you have taken the time to read all of this thread you now realize that Man Made Global Warming is a hoax. Tempuratures peaked in 1934 and have been slowly declining ever since. 

Who are we going to blame for this tragedy?

Check Six

Rocky


MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) ? Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.



Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.




The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.




Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.




This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.




It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizations—in particular, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Signed by 150 countries, it exemplifies the impact of scientific delusion on big politics and economics. The authors and enthusiasts of the Kyoto Protocol based their assumptions on an erroneous idea. As a result, developed countries waste huge amounts of money to fight industrial pollution of the atmosphere. What if it is a Don Quixote?s duel with the windmill?




Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming. At any rate, there is no scientific evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is too simple to be true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes are on in the atmosphere, especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is not so much radiated in space as carried by air currents—an entirely different mechanism, which cannot cause global warming.




The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions—a point proved theoretically and empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice shield, taken with bore specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research station Vostok, show that there are close links between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we cannot be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect.




Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide concentration changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the greatest carbon dioxide depository, with concentrations 60-90 times larger than in the atmosphere. When the ocean?s surface warms up, it produces the ?champagne effect.? Compare a foamy spurt out of a warm bottle with wine pouring smoothly when served properly cold.




Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which evaporates to add to industrial pollution—a factor we cannot deny. However, man-ca

 
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andyf       1/4/2008 10:14:17 AM
saw a documentary a while ago,, seems that once before in earths history greenhouse warming took off
hopefully this time it wont be as bad.
that time it shut off the ocean conveyor currents- and nearly wiped everything out
there are vast beds of shale formed in an anoxic ocean
and meanwhile back in the present I see more and more people driving minibuses with 4wd and names like 'explore'
these vehicle use there vast off-road performance to block up the roads on the 1/2 mile school run
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Welcome back Paul, reply...   1/4/2008 10:58:24 AM
Hello and welcome back Paul! Thank you for your post but I think you are continue to be a bit too zealous about your belief in the man made global warming theory. I and others have posted many peer reviewed works here, not BBC articles, to offset the erroneous information presented by the MMGW crowd. The good Russian Doctor's paper reflects what we already know, Earth's tempurature peaked in 1934 (see McIntyre/McKittrick report quoted above in "Hokey Stick Politics") and has been gradually going down ever since.

Here is another report about Antarctic Ice sheets growing. As you can see there is no evidence that man is creating global climate changes. At best you have a theory that can not be proven and who'se own data does not support it.

Check Six

Rocky

ht****tp://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/antarctic_020822.html
In a surprising departure from other findings that point to a warming planet, a NASA researcher has found that the amount of ice in the Antarctic increased from 1979 to 1999, as measured by satellites.

Many recent findings have detailed the decline of the ice cap in the Arctic, at the top of the world. These new results from the Southern Hemisphere imply that global climate change involves regional variations.

Changes in ice cover are important not only because they indicate temperature changes that have occurred; the changes can effect future temperatures. With more ice, more solar radiation is reflected away from Earth. The ice also insulates oceans from the atmosphere. Less ice has the opposite effects.

In the new study, published in the Annals of Glaciology, Claire Parkinson of NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center analyzed the length of the sea ice season throughout the Southern Ocean to obtain trends in sea ice coverage. On average, the area where sea ice seasons have lengthened by at least one day per year is roughly twice as large as the area where sea ice seasons have shortened by at least one day per year.

"You can see with this dataset that what is happening in the Antarctic is not what would be expected from a straightforward global warming scenario, but a much more complicated set of events," Parkinson said.

 
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RockyMTNClimber    Greenland Ice Grows, Eric the Red is dead......   1/4/2008 11:46:06 AM
Here is an article from Investor's Business Daily, quoting research by MIT scientist Richard Lindzen, and University of Washington PHD Ian Howat. As you can see the Earth's ice sheets are not ever static in size. Eric the Red found Greenland quite pleasant when he arrived in 986 AD, but within 500 years the ice killed his colony. Greenland was warm and productive without help from man and the ice took it back from ole Eric's clan without help from man.
 
The point is that the earth we see today is an dynamic organism. We adopt to it, it does not adopt to us. There remains no evidence that man is causing global tempurature changes, in fact the evidence supports we have very little to no influence. The MMGW craze is political in nature and should be cast to the socialist dust bin of history.
 
Drill more oil.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky

ht****tp://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=265504045876088
Richard S. Lindzen, professor of atmospheric science at MIT, says "the evidence so far suggests that the Greenland ice sheet is actually growing on average" and that a "likely result of all this is that increased pressure is pushing ice off the coastal perimeter of that country." And, we'd add, giving the greenies ominous photo-ops.

As Patrick J. Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute, points out, satellite data published in the November 2005 issue of the journal Science showed Greenland was losing about 25 cubic miles of ice per year. Dividing that by Greenland's 630,000 miles of ice, Eric the Red's former ranchland was losing ice at the rate of 0.4% per century.

Ian Howat of the University of Washington published another paper in the February 2007 issue of Science reporting that the rate of melting of two of the largest glaciers had slowed "to near zero, with some apparent thickening in areas on the main trunk."

Howat notes that Greenland was about as warm or warmer in the 1930s and '40s, before the SUV, and many of Greenland's glaciers were smaller than they are now. This was a period of rapid glacier melting worldwide followed by an expansion during a colder period from the 1950s to the 1980s.

Greenland was definitely warmer when Eric the Red settled there in 986. The climate then supported the Viking way of life based upon cattle, hay, grain and herring for about 300 years, predating the Industrial Revolution.

By 1100, a colony of about 3,000 was thriving there. But then came the Little Ice Age, and by 1400 average temperatures had declined by about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and the advancing glaciers doomed the Viking colony in Greenland. Doomed by global cooling.

 
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paul1970       1/7/2008 10:25:05 AM


Hello and welcome back Paul! Thank you for your post but I think you are continue to be a bit too zealous about your belief in the man made global warming theory. I and others have posted many peer reviewed works here, not BBC articles, to offset the erroneous information presented by the MMGW crowd. The good Russian Doctor's paper reflects what we already know, Earth's tempurature peaked in 1934 (see McIntyre/McKittrick report quoted above in "Hokey Stick Politics") and has been gradually going down ever since.

Here is another report about Antarctic Ice sheets growing. As you can see there is no evidence that man is creating global climate changes. At best you have a theory that can not be proven and who'se own data does not support it.

Check Six

Rocky

ht****tp://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/antarctic_020822.html
In a surprising departure from other findings that point to a warming planet, a NASA researcher has found that the amount of ice in the Antarctic increased from 1979 to 1999, as measured by satellites.

Many recent findings have detailed the decline of the ice cap in the Arctic, at the top of the world. These new results from the Southern Hemisphere imply that global climate change involves regional variations.


Changes in ice cover are important not only because they indicate temperature changes that have occurred; the changes can effect future temperatures. With more ice, more solar radiation is reflected away from Earth. The ice also insulates oceans from the atmosphere. Less ice has the opposite effects.


In the new study, published in the Annals of Glaciology, Claire Parkinson of NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center analyzed the length of the sea ice season throughout the Southern Ocean to obtain trends in sea ice coverage. On average, the area where sea ice seasons have lengthened by at least one day per year is roughly twice as large as the area where sea ice seasons have shortened by at least one day per year.


"You can see with this dataset that what is happening in the Antarctic is not what would be expected from a straightforward global warming scenario, but a much more complicated set of events," Parkinson said.





I am undecided as to whether man adds to global warming significantly ... I error on the side of caution until the overwhelming scientific community are in agreement.
 
 
 
the BBC didn't produce the articles... they just referenced them... there were 2 other links as well... all 3 say ice sheet retreating.
 
your article you ref'd above stops in 1999??? those other articles are from this century...
 
one for this year below......

"Jan. 2, 2008 -- The dramatic loss of the Arctic ice cap may have been triggered by disruption to the thermal layers of atmosphere stacked over Earth's far north, according to Swedish research to be published Thursday.

The study, published in Nature, offers a new explanation for the rise in the Arctic's surface temperature, which over the past century has been nearly two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), or twice the global average.

Until now, the big suspect in "Arctic amplification" has been reflectivity of sunlight.

When the Sun's rays hit snow or ice, most of that solar energy bounces back into space -- but as those melting surfaces give way to dark-blue sea, the heat is absorbed instead.

This self-reinforcing process, called a feedback, is an established factor in accelerating warming in snow and ice.

But Stockholm University scientists led by Rune Graversen believe a possibly bigger cause for Arctic warming could be changes in heat transport in the middle of the troposphere, an atmospheric band that extends 10 kilometers (seven miles) above Earth's surface.

In polar regions, the layers of relative heat above the surface are usually stable. B

 
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RockyMTNClimber    Paul reply   1/7/2008 10:46:09 AM
 
Thank you again Paul for your reply. Could you please explain Eric the Red's adventures? How can we say the northern ice sheet is the way it has always been when we know it wasn't. Im betting that the northwest passage probably existed when he was plying the north Atlantic and went away because of what? The science does not support your opinion that man is creating global warming or may be able to effect atmospheric temps at all.
 
You are right in your posts that you/we don't know if there is change. Please also explain why the predictions of MMGW are not taking place based upon the scientific observations. See the study on this thread above that shows the temps peaked in 1934. 
 
What the MMGW cultists want is dangerous to the world economy. Time to drill more oil.   
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Duke University Study   1/7/2008 11:31:40 AM
Paul, here is another study from Duke University who'se analysis shows that North Atlantic Ocean surface waters are naturally variable. What a suprise. Their opinion is that any effects caused by man are unobservable because of natural cycles. Go with the science Paul not the Cultist crowd.

Drill more oil.

Check Six

Rocky

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080103144416.htm
ScienceDaily (Jan. 5, 2008)
— A Duke University-led analysis of available records shows that while the North Atlantic Ocean's surface waters warmed in the 50 years between 1950 and 2000, the change was not uniform. In fact, the subpolar regions cooled at the same time that subtropical and tropical waters warmed.

This striking pattern can be explained largely by the influence of a natural and cyclical wind circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), wrote authors of a study published Jan. 3, in Science Express, the online edition of the journal Science.

Winds that power the NAO are driven by atmospheric pressure differences between areas around Iceland and the Azores. "The winds have a tremendous impact on the underlying ocean," said Susan Lozier, a professor of physical oceanography at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences who is the study's first author.

Other studies cited in the Science Express report suggest human-caused global warming may be affecting recent ocean heating trends. But Lozier and her coauthors found their data can't support that view for the North Atlantic. "It is premature to conclusively attribute these regional patterns of heat gain to greenhouse warming," they wrote.

"The take-home message is that the NAO produces strong natural variability," said Lozier in an interview. "The simplistic view of global warming is that everything forward in time will warm uniformly. But this very strong natural variability is superimposed on human-caused warming. So researchers will need to unravel that natural variability to get at the part humans are responsible for."

In research supported by the National Science Foundation in the United States and the Natural Environment Research Council in the United Kingdom, her international team analyzed 50 years of North Atlantic temperature records collected at the National Oceanic Data Center in Washington, D.C.

To piece together the mechanisms involved in the observed changes, their analysis employed an ocean circulation model that predicts how winds, evaporation, precipitation and the exchange of heat with the atmosphere influences the North Atlantic's heat content over time. They also compared those computer predictions to real observations "to test the model's skill," the authors wrote.

Her group's analysis showed that water in the sub-polar ocean --- roughly between 45 degrees North latitude and the Arctic Circle --- became cooler as the water directly exchanged heat with the air above it.

By contrast, NOA-driven winds served to "pile up" sun-warmed waters in parts of the subtropical and tropical North Atlantic south of 45 degrees, Lozier said. That retained and distributed heat at the surface while pushing underlying cooler water further down.

The group's computer model predicted warmer sea surfaces in the tropics and subtropics and colder readings within the sub-polar zone whenever the NAO is in an elevated state of activity. Such a high NAO has been the case during the years 1980 to 2000, the scientists reported.

"We suggest that the large-scale, decadal changes...associated with the NAO are primarily responsible for the ocean heat content changes in the North Atlantic over the past 50 years," the authors concluded.

However, the researchers also noted that this study should not be viewed in isolation. Given reported heat content gains in other oceans basins, and rising air temperatures, the authors surmised that other parts of the world's ocean systems may have taken up the excess heat produced by global warming.

"But in the North Atlantic, any anthropogenic (human-caused) warming would presently be masked by such strong natural variability," they wrote.

Other authors of the report included Richard Williams and Vassil Roussenov of Liverpool University; Susan Leadbetter, previously at Liverpool University but now a postdoctoral researcher with Lozier; Mark Reed, a computational scientist who also works with Lozier at Duke; and Nathan Moore, a former Duke graduate student now at Michigan State University.

Adapted from materials provided by

 
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RockyMTNClimber    Error on above post.    1/7/2008 11:56:07 AM
Paul, the above post is a Science Daily article that covers a Duke University study on the ocean temps in the North Atlantic. As you can see the data does not support MMGW argument. It is not enough to say that temps have or may be changing, there-fore man is to blame. That is silly. The people harking the MMGW argument are seeking political-economic changes and basing their demands upon acknowledged bad science. Posted above on this thread is also several analysis showing most atmospheric scientists do not believe in the MMGW craze any more than I do.
 
Go with the science not the cultist world view. Drill More Oil.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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