Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Armed Forces of the World Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: ALIENS CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING - SERIOUSLY!
RockyMTNClimber    6/21/2007 12:30:31 PM
This is to put a final nail in the coffin of global warming. Man can not change the earth's tempurature. No evidence has ever or will ever compell science to say that. This is a silly notion played for political and religious resons. Below is a well thought out essay that everyone who believes in global warming, leprichans, and the stork that delivers babies should read. Check Six Rocky "Aliens Cause Global Warming" A lecture by Michael Crichton California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA January 17, 2003 My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming. Charting this progression of belief will be my task today. Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy. I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack. It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be a very good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world. But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought---prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan's memorable phrase, "a candle in a demon haunted world." And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free. But let's look at how it came to pass. Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation: N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live. This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice. As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involv
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22   NEXT
RockyMTNClimber    My Source which you endorse and thank youfor that!   7/13/2007 12:40:33 AM
Is complete rubbish. Rocky did go to his bother of actual finding a peer reviewed study and has significantly raised the level of his argument. I will argue with Crichton and the Daily Mail but there’s no way I’m going to even try to contradict the petition project. In fact I’m pretty satisfied with the petitions reasoning. Touché Rocky<assymetric 
 
ARTHUR B. ROBINSON, SALLIE L. BALIUNAS, WILLIE SOON, AND ZACHARY W. ROBINSON

Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, 2251 Dick George Rd., Cave Junction, Oregon 97523 [email protected]

George C. Marshall Institute, 1730 K St., NW, Ste 905, Washington, DC 20006 [email protected] January 1998

 
Quote    Reply

RockyMTNClimber    Hows the view from the Ivory Tower Now?   7/13/2007 12:43:10 AM
 
Quote    Reply

paul1970       7/13/2007 4:37:41 AM



I sort of agree....



but you only find out the degree of the problem by looking into it more.....  smallpox would not have been wiped out if people didn't look into it... nobody would know that smoking causes cancer if people hadn't looked into it.... we might not see that big meteor coming if we don't look for it....   :-)



 



 



I just think that the majority of the latest science shows that global warming is happening and could cause devastation if we don't take measures to counter it. so I favour doing something "just in case" rather than waiting for more and more research to confirm it and it be too late to do anything about it...



and if it turns out that the money was not needed to be spent then we go oh well.....money will be spent elsewhere if not here and could be just as wasted there.



I prefer to gamble on the side of safety than risk it all.



 



 



 



I see no credible reason anybody would not want to cut emmisions?



 



as for taxing high poluters... extra money to be spent by governments (whether on climate or health, education, even defense) is not that bad as long as it is not wasted (lefty sort of view from right wing Brit.... )



alternatively...  have tax breaks for those going with the less poluting options... make it worth their while to change.



 



there is an awful lot of money going into alternative power sources. I would prefer wind, wave and solar than nuclear but all alternatives should be looked at purely on the basis that oil and gas will run out anyway and getting off middle eastern oil/ Russian gas is good for all of us in the west.



 



 



Paul




Please explain why you want windpower[heavy metals pollution, land wastage, low watt per cubic meter used  output.].

Why do you want wave generator power? In addition to the windmill negatives  these are MAINTENANCE  nightmares.

What about seaweed and coral polyps?  What about plankton and fish?

Solar is more poisonous than the first two and even less efficient as it wastes and poisons MORE land per watt generated.


How about uses thermal tap Carnot engines instead?

What do you have against fission powerplants?

How about solar thermal? Low efficiency, but the poison footprint per meter cubed is a lot less than PV.

Herald

I don't know enough about any of the alternatives. thats why I would like to see research and investment into them. even nuclear. I would prefer others over nuclear for no other reason than I don't like nuclear (and I spent a year doing IT support for BE at Heysham (also done 6 months at AWE)) so if an alternative is found that works just as well then I would support that. if not then nuclear be it and stick it well away from me...   :-)
 
we have windturbines in UK and there is plenty of scope for more as it is not like we are short of land in the more remote areas where sod all else is done. there are even in end planning stage of sticking them out in Irish sea 10+ miles of my towns coast...  maintainence hell but so are gas rigs sitting right next to them.....
 
Paul
 
Quote    Reply

paul1970       7/13/2007 4:56:25 AM

I just think that the majority of the latest science shows that global warming is happening

 

Why do you think that?

 

I prefer to gamble on the side of safety than risk it all.
 

Based upon what risk assessment criteria? At what cost / benefit analysis?

 

I see no credible reason anybody would not want to cut emmisions?

 

To what level? Zero emmisions means zero people. This is a platitude not a policy statement.

 

as for taxing high poluters... extra money to be spent by governments

 

PING! We now have what many people want. This has nothing to do with global warming it is about the transfer of wealth and government control. That policy will destroy world economies and send us back to the dark ages!

 

I would prefer wind.....

 

Please try and understand that your wind technology is several orders of magnitude worse a poluter than what we use now! Ever see a wind-mill farm?

 

getting off middle eastern oil/ Russian gas

 

I agree with you here! Western Oil sources are LARGER than the Middle East and Russian combined. We need to drill and build larger refining capacity IN THE WEST while researching cost effective replacements. The answer is not to take food out of people's mouths! Colorado's new policy of ethynol based fuel is cutting our exports of corn, wheat, barley and stock feed. These are resources that were going to make food for people. These policies are bad for the economy, the  environment, and will end up starving people at the bottom end of the economic ladder.

 

Paul. Re read the thread again from beginning to end. Check out the liar Assymetric again. HE LIED to make your point and it did not work because the data does not support his conclusion. We sewed him up in a neat bag and tossed him over the gunwhale! There is no science that man is effecting the Earth's tempurature. Zip.
 

Check Six


 

Rocky



I am still reading up and undecided. the majority of reported science seems to be that man is contributing. (it doesn't help the opposite case when people like Durkins come out with documentaries as poor as thechannel 4 one and misrepresent views and adapt data to support their point rather than its original point)

 
I naturally lean towards siding with the yes crowd because I work on the theory of plan for the worst and hope for the best.
 
 
cutting emmisions... cutting emmisions by anything is better than nothing... why do you not support cutting of emmisions?
 
 
tax... you oppose tax rises for climate change... fine... then make it tax neutral and encourage move to cleaner power ect. do you oppose tax rises to spend on education, law and order, defense spending, health ect?
 
 
how is wind power generation a worse poluter than oil or gas fired power stations?
 
 
Paul
 
Quote    Reply

paul1970    Lockwood   7/13/2007 5:18:46 AM

 

Hmmmm, Data collected for 25 years.....

 

 

Graphs of cosmic ray activity and temperaturehttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42489000/gif/_42489204_cosmic_conn_203gr.gif" width=203 border=0>

 



Data going back 3000 years.....

 


http://www.oism.org/pproject/fig2.gif" name="Figure 2">

 

assymetric, I think you are a moron as well as a liar.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky


I soley confine my points to the Lockwood research used by people who claim solar activitey was causing global warming (used by Durkin on C4).  the new research clearly counters this.
 
Rocky in response has posted a 3000 timeline which shows a trend of sea temperature (not solar, is that another graph somewhere else????) . I do not see how this is meant to be used to say that Lockwood's conclusion that solar activity is not causing the temperature rise is wrong?
 
if you think that Lockwood is wrong in his latest research then can you post something that is relevent to the last 20 years or at least the time period of man in the modern industrialised age.
 
 
Paul
 
Quote    Reply

paul1970    Rocky-Lockwood   7/13/2007 5:40:28 AM







 

 

 

 


 

Cosmic rays blamed for global warming


By Richard Gray, Science Correspondent, Sunday Telegraph



Last Updated: 1:08am GMT 11/02/2007







 









Man-made climate change may be happening at a far slower rate than has been claimed, according to controversial new research.

Scientists say that cosmic rays from outer space play a far greater role in changing the Earth's climate than global warming experts previously thought.

In a book, to be published this week, they claim that fluctuations in the number of cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere directly alter the amount of cloud covering the planet.









 


How cosmic rays could seed clouds diagramhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2007/02/11/warm11.gif" width=260 border=0>

High levels of cloud cover blankets the Earth and reflects radiated heat from the Sun back out into space, causing the planet to cool.

Henrik Svensmark, a weather scientist at the Danish National Space Centre who led the team behind the research, believes that the planet is experiencing a natural period of low cloud cover due to fewer cosmic rays entering the atmosphere.

This, he says, is responsible for much of the global warming we are experiencing.

He claims carbon dioxide emissions due to human activity are having a smaller impact on climate change than scientists think. If he is correct, it could mean that mankind has more time to reduce our effect on the climate.

The controversial theory comes one week after 2,500 scientists who make up the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change published their fourth report stating that human carbon dioxide emissions would cause temperature rises of up to 4.5 C by the end of the century.



Mr Svensmark claims that the calculations used to make this prediction l
 
Quote    Reply

paul1970    Martin Durkin documentary   7/13/2007 7:11:57 AM


Remember the Channel 4 program I mentioned above. Well one
of the items that stuck in my mind was the piece on Al Gore. They showed his
presentation of a graph that showed temperature over time in an upper line and
a CO2 graph over the same time on a lower line. The peaks and troughs exactly
matched. Al said that this demonstrated the link between CO2 and temperature
rise and that CO2 caused the rise. When the “sceptic” climatologist looked at
the data, he discovered that the CO2 line was correct, but that Al Gore had
shifted it 800 years leftward to get the match. In fact, the CO2 rise lags in
time behind the temperature rise by that amount.


Global warming causes the CO2 rise, not the other way round.


The biggest reservoir of carbon (after rocks) is
the oceans. CO2 is absorbed by the sea at the air/water interface. Rough cold
seas absorb more CO2 the warm calm seas so when the Earth warms up, the oceans
slowly warm up too, absorbing less CO2 in the process. That explains the delay
between the temperature rise and the CO2 rise.



this would be the Martin Durkin documentary. it is about as reliable as that other well known documentary "loose change". look up the list of his sources who now say he misquoted them. he also changed graphics. used older data when newer research would not back his points. (his others documentaries on breast cancer and GE went down just as well with participants complaining to the ITC.)
 
he is basically a very unreliable source and relying on him actually harms the anti case credibility?
 
Paul
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

paul1970    Martin Durkin documentary   7/13/2007 7:24:32 AM





Remember the Channel 4 program I mentioned above. Well one
of the items that stuck in my mind was the piece on Al Gore. They showed his
presentation of a graph that showed temperature over time in an upper line and
a CO2 graph over the same time on a lower line. The peaks and troughs exactly
matched. Al said that this demonstrated the link between CO2 and temperature
rise and that CO2 caused the rise. When the “sceptic” climatologist looked at
the data, he discovered that the CO2 line was correct, but that Al Gore had
shifted it 800 years leftward to get the match. In fact, the CO2 rise lags in
time behind the temperature rise by that amount.




Global warming causes the CO2 rise, not the other way round.



The biggest reservoir of carbon (after rocks) is
the oceans. CO2 is absorbed by the sea at the air/water interface. Rough cold
seas absorb more CO2 the warm calm seas so when the Earth warms up, the oceans
slowly warm up too, absorbing less CO2 in the process. That explains the delay
between the temperature rise and the CO2 rise.




this would be the Martin Durkin documentary. it is about as reliable as that other well known documentary "loose change". look up the list of his sources who now say he misquoted them. he also changed graphics. used older data when newer research would not back his points. (his others documentaries on breast cancer and GE went down just as well with participants complaining to the ITC.)

 

he is basically a very unreliable source and relying on him actually harms the anti case credibility?

 

Paul

 

 


links for T and CO2 bit and how Durkin spun it.
 
 
 
Paul
 


 
 
Quote    Reply

Jeff_F_F       7/13/2007 9:19:26 AM



All I see is an unsupported claim by Paul that he has data that is newer than Rocky's 2003 data that supposedly repudiates that data. Show it to me. So far Rocky has shown data that--

1) appears to strongly link global temperature and solar output.

2) appears to demonstrate either no link or a very weak link between antropogenic CO2 emissions and global temperature.

3) appears to discredit the ground based temperature record as being caused by readings in urban areas where other sources of heat can skew the measurements.

Right now the burden of proof is on anyone who wants to contradict that data. Whatever you may feel about Rocky or his debating style he is only the messenger. So far no one has addressed the content of his message except through unsupported assertations.


This is the article I believe Paul was referring to. It was released on July the 10th. It refutes the claims Rocky makes about solar activity. I wasn’t going to participate further in this debate, until Rocky decided to call my name out (for what reason I don’t know). I do not expect a coherent reply from Rocky regarding this article since he has failed to do so when I tore into Michaels Crichton’s work or when I took him to task about the oceans ability to absorb emissions or in fact the findings of the IPCC.

  “No Sun link” to climate change

By Richard Black

BBC Environment Correspondent

A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun's output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.

It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen.  

It also shows that modern temperatures are not determined by the Sun's effect on cosmic rays, as has been claimed.

 
Writing in the Royal Society's journal Proceedings A, the researchers say cosmic rays may have affected climate in the past, but not the present.

"This should settle the debate," said Mike Lockwood, from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, who carried out the new analysis together with Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland.

Dr Lockwood initiated the study partially in response to the TV documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle, broadcast on Britain's Channel Four earlier this year, which featured the cosmic ray hypothesis.

"All the graphs they showed stopped in about 1980, and I knew why, because things diverged after that," he told the BBC News website.
"You can't just ignore bits of data that you don't like," he said.

Warming trend
The scientists' main approach on this new analysis was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature, which has risen by about 0.4C over the period.
The Sun varies on a cycle of about 11 years between periods of high and low activity.

But that cycle comes on top of longer-term trends; and most of the 20th Century saw a slight but steady increase in solar output.

However, in about 1985, that trend appears to have reversed, with solar output declining.

Yet this period has seen temperatures rise as fast as - if not faster than - any time during the previous 100 years.

"This paper reinforces the fact that the warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of climate science.

Cosmic relief

The IPCC's February summary report concluded that greenhouse gases were about 13 times more responsible than solar changes for rising global temperatures.

But the organisation was criticised in some quarters for not taking into account the cosmic ray hypothesis, developed by, amon

 
Quote    Reply

Herald1234       7/13/2007 9:34:33 AM
how is wind power generation a worse poluter than oil or gas fired power stations?

We use a lot of extremely poisonous rare earths and metals to build the modern wind turbine. To build a turbine farm that is generator equivalent to the electrical output of a 1000 MW coal fired plant we take up 100X the land footprint of the plant , we  mine 5X-10X the land we stripmine for coal and we get damned poor efficiency for the amount of land we tear up and the and the poisons we release as well as he mine tailings we scatter around. All you see are a few pretty windmills.

After number crunching I see windmill farms covering the area of West Virginia supplying 5% of the US energy needs and total land area ruined that is equivalent to the area of Pennsylvania. I'm also not to crazy about mercury, antimony , LEAD, sulphur and other noxious elements released. Plus windmill farms are hard on cows and birds. I LIKE birds. 

Windmills are also noisey and tend to wind up on land we could use to feed hungry people. Look at a windmill plantation and I see trees and grassland destroyed, plus farmland taken out of production.

THAT makes no sense.

Frank
 

 
Quote    Reply
PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22   NEXT



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics